5 ms·
It feels like we're in a golden age of hard tech: * A major advance in spaceflight [0] * a ton of private investment in nuclear power [1] * AI models perform
by setgree 2y ago
It feels like we're in a golden age of hard tech:
* A major advance in spaceflight [0]
* a ton of private investment in nuclear power [1]
* AI models performing at PhD-level on some tasks [2]
I know it can feel low-status to admire these accomplishments -- it feels like we're aligning with/submitting to the people behind them -- but I perceive technological growth to be accelerating across a bunch of fields that matter to me.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41827362 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41827362
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858961 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858961
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03169-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03169-9
- tomcar288 2y agowhy do you like spaceflight? i don't see that as addressing any major human needs
- cryptoz 2y agoOP never said they liked spaceflight. They also didn't say anything about addressing human needs. They just said "hard tech golden age". So I think you are looking for a fight that isn't there. But anyway; let's take it at the best case curiosity. I do like spaceflight. Is it a problem to you what people like? Does everything you like specifically address human needs? I find this confusing. Regardless, all life on Earth is going to die. I see it as a "major human need" to avoid death of our civilization and all other life we know of in the whole universe, if it becomes possible. And it does seem more possible now - because of the advances SpaceX has made with hard rocket tech in the last few years, specifically.
- setgree 2y agoWell I did say that the field 'mattered' to me :) I would say that space flight is cool as a potential experience -- I hope that it's safe and cheap enough one day that I can go -- and I also think that life is good [0], so if we can spread life to more planets, that's good. [0] https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/this-is-the-dream-timehtml https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/this-is-the-dream-timehtml
- kulahan 2y agoIt is 100% guaranteed that, at some point in the (geologically) near future, humanity will need to leave Earth permanently, or move the planet or something to that effect if we really want to. We should be beyond ready by the time that comes. It's not an immediate or daily human need, but it IS a human need.
- posterman 2y agoBold claim. Why?
- Filligree 2y agoThe sun is heating up, and Earth is going to become too hot. I’m not sure on the timeline; might be a few hundred million years. Might be more. It depends on how the atmosphere reacts. On that timescale we could use a gravitational tractor to fix it, if we insist keeping the planet around.
- tomcar288 2y agook, so we have a loooottt of time to do that. for now, i think humanity already has waaaayyyy tooo many problems to deal with before we need to worry about that.
- kulahan 2y agoCorrect, hence the "(geological) time" bit ;) A lot of time, but it is irrefutably a requirement, and as we research it, we'll learn lots of things to use here on Earth, too.
- posterman 2y agoThis presumes humans will survive until the point they have to deal with it. Irrefutability and far-future events are oil and water.
- nonameiguess 2y ago
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Kon5ole 2y agoExploring is a major human need, as history has shown repeatedly.
- BurningFrog 2y agoEven if you don't enjoy the science/exploration angle, asteroid mining should be incredibly good for human needs. Any metal you can think of exists in phenomenal abundance there, and should be able to be exploited at minimal cost in the long run. Having huge supplies of cheap platinum, gold, nickel, cobalt etc would be extremely good for humanity. It also means we don't need to have dirty and ugly mines on earth. There is also the military angle. If the west lets China control orbit, we're in big trouble.
- protomolecule 2y agoAnd if China let's west control the orbit, China is in big trouble.
- kibwen 2y agoAsteroid mining is wildly uneconomical. There is no material to be found in large quantities on any asteroid in the solar system whose value justifies the development and installation costs of the infrastructure needed to get that material back to Earth. If you're building a megastructure in space, that's a different story. But please understand that mining gold or platinum from asteroids, at (literally) astronomical cost, will not do anything to advance the state of life on Earth except, at best, reduce the price of gold and platinum, which are not societal bottlenecks.
- BurningFrog 2y agoPerhaps. But I'd be more convinced if you gave some arguments. This article tells a very different story: https://www.cnet.com/science/rare-asteroids-near-earth-may-become-targets-for-space-mining/ https://www.cnet.com/science/rare-asteroids-near-earth-may-b... Platinum has a lot of industrial uses today at $1000/oz: https://market-news-insights-jpx.com/ose/commodities/article005031/ https://market-news-insights-jpx.com/ose/commodities/article... At $10/oz it could be used for vastly more purposes.
- protomolecule 2y agoThat's what dinosaurs thought and then the asteroid hit the Earth. And, personally, I want a space telescope a thousand times bigger than James Webb. That's my biggest need after food, shelter, health and human connection.
- kibwen 2y ago> That's what dinosaurs thought and then the asteroid hit the Earth. An asteroid-ravaged Earth is still more habitable than any planet in the solar system.
- protomolecule 2y agoI'd prefer we avoid the whole asteroid-ravaging thing.
- tomcar288 2y agoI admit, this is very impressive: "AI models performing at PhD-level on some tasks" but it remains to be seen as to whether all this intelligence actually leads to greater productivity and whether that "productivity" even translates into higher earnings in a meaningful way. the way I see it, virtual goods (games, digital goods, etc) will continue to be ever more free and lower cost, while nothing much changes in the real world.
- nine_k 2y agoDid you notice how closed captions generated from videos became really good? Did you notice that machine translation became usable for everyday tasks? Did you notice that you can direct your phone at an inscription in a language unknown to you, and get a translation put at the same spot on the picture, and an explanation of it read aloud to you? Does it make your very real life easier? All this stuff used to be high-end research with unstable and hardly usable results like 10 years ago.
- JohnFen 2y ago> Did you notice how closed captions generated from videos became really good? I've noticed the exact opposite over the last year or so. They've become riddled with errors of the sort that actively mislead people about what was actually said. > Does it make your very real life easier? So far, generative AI has not made my very real life any easier. It has made it more uncertain, though, and has made it harder to trust anything I am not seeing/hearing in person.
- bamboozled 2y agoIt's good but for some languages, like Japanese, it can be pretty freaking wacky.
- OrigamiPastrami 2y agoAre we just going to ignore the negative externalities of AI? From my perspective, the main product of AI is bots spamming social media with misinformation - largely with a goal of swaying elections. I'm not saying that AI is inherently evil and has no potential, but just ignoring the cost is misleading. It's like saying oil is wonderful and pretending global warming isn't a thing. The tech may be "hard" but that doesn't mean it's a net positive for society, which to me is what really matters. Of course this is all subjective and nobody can predict the future, but I just find this blind optimism to be self-destructive.
- threeseed 2y agoa) It's not a major advance in spaceflight. It's a notable step but the last major advance was when Nasa enabled the private/public partnership and started to allow companies like SpaceX to exist in the first place. b) There is not a ton of private investment in nuclear power. It is a handful of LOI that history has shown usually doesn't translate to much. c) AI models do not perform at PhD level. They can solve some PhD level tasks but as Apple showed in their research the minute you swap out variables or add irrelevant information they fall apart. So clearly not evidence of intelligence. Not to be negative on anything because I do think we are in an incredible era but these aren't what I would consider the best examples.
- EasyMark 2y agoI agree with 1 and 2, but 0 is questionable. Cheaper space flight is a great incremental improvement though.
- bamboozled 2y agoWhat is the actual significance of the booster catch is ? Re-usability is obviously part of it, but do we really think that thing will just be refueled and sent straight back off in the near future? It seems to be an incredible feat of engineering, no doubts there, but how significant are the practical implications? I found this from Musk, which is his usual over the top optimistic self: In an interview to YouTube channel Everyday Astronaut, Musk said that his vision is that Mechazilla will one day be able to turn around and set a rocket back on the launchpad, perhaps as little as 30 minutes after touchdown.
- defrost 2y agoThe dimensions quote is: Heavy Booster is 232 feet tall, and 29.5 feet across, and weighs something like 275 tons and that's precision engineering - multiple pressurised chambers, flared and clean flowing pipes for fluid routing, nozzles, etc. These things are no easy build, they take time, high skill levels, resources, etc. 30 minutes turn around on reuse is BS for now, they'll take weeks of fine toothed retesting and examination to clear them for reuse - but that'll still be a considerable saving of time, money, and resources compared to a complete new build from scratch.
- bamboozled 2y agoYeah I see, but also all of that shifting of weight, heat, acceleration and deceleration must be pretty stressful on that structure and on the materials, I feel like it would be best to wait and see what these things look like after one or two uses before claiming the wins.
- defrost 2y agoI dare say that's why they'll take weeks of fine toothed retesting and examination to clear them for reuse and they'll bed a few in before setting long term procedures in stone. What's your Engineering background? Civil, Mechanical? Ever worked on any of those 380+ metre tall North Sea Oil and Gas platforms?
- Ghaenergyyy 2y ago[dead]