3 ms·

but not bc nuclear is unprofitable. Nuclear there is 3-3.5bn/unit, dirt cheap. They just can't scale it faster due to stalling after fukushima events

Retric 2y ago
Fucashma happened in 2011, their up over 4x since then with the total share of electricity from nuclear in China roughly doubled. It’s just nowhere close to the changes seen in renewable generation. China is already trying to use coal as a peaking generation something it’s terrible at. That’s something nuclear is even worse at and what’s ultimately limiting their nuclear ambitions. They slowed down the pass of nuclear construction despite nuclear only making up ~5% of their electricity supply it’s simply an issue with nuclear not regulations.
- Moldoteck 2y ago
  They reduced nr of builds after fk and ramped up only recently with 10+ reactors approved/yr. But agree it's still harder to scale than renewables, but they are gradually getting close to 4-5 years of build time for their designs so things may improve greatly in near time
  - Retric 2y ago
    I suspect the timing is simply coincidence. Solar became vastly more viable in that timeline and it can be rolled out from planning to electricity in months not years. Which then shifted overall electricity planning.
    - Moldoteck 2y ago
      it's not coincidence, they got panicked after fk, just like the rest of the world
      - Retric 2y ago
        Doubling nuclear generation in the next few years and increasing the number of reactors being planned hardly describes panic. Japan and Germany panicked. China did something else.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
China could build nuclear faster if they wanted to. They were building it faster in the 2010s and have slowed down, so they obviously have the capacity.
- Moldoteck 2y ago
  yes they slowed down and ramping up again now. 10+ reactors/yr approved, 30+ under construction, hualong build time of about 5 years, will probably drop to 4
- mpweiher 2y ago
  You don't want to build out too quickly, because the plants are so long-lasting. If you are aiming for a fleet of 200 reactors, you should be completing 2 per year.
  - Retric 2y ago
    Growing demand means China could have ramped up much faster without that concern. ~5% of total supply after 2+ decades of nuclear construction is almost perfunctory.
mpweiher 2y ago
Yes, it's not because nuclear is unprofitable. It's because nuclear power plants are so durable, they last almost forever, but at least 80-100 years for modern plants. If you build out too quickly, you end up in the same situation the French found themselves in after the Messmer-plan predictions turned out to vastly overestimate demand: they were done after 15 years. With effectively no nuclear power plants to build for 45-85 years, their industry withered and they have had to re-learn building them. Not helped by the fact that there was a legal cap on the total amount of nuclear production.

Retric 2y ago

Fucashma happened in 2011, their up over 4x since then with the total share of electricity from nuclear in China roughly doubled. It’s just nowhere close to the changes seen in renewable generation. China is already trying to use coal as a peaking generation something it’s terrible at. That’s something nuclear is even worse at and what’s ultimately limiting their nuclear ambitions. They slowed down the pass of nuclear construction despite nuclear only making up ~5% of their electricity supply it’s simply an issue with nuclear not regulations.

Moldoteck 2y ago
They reduced nr of builds after fk and ramped up only recently with 10+ reactors approved/yr. But agree it's still harder to scale than renewables, but they are gradually getting close to 4-5 years of build time for their designs so things may improve greatly in near time
- Retric 2y ago
  I suspect the timing is simply coincidence. Solar became vastly more viable in that timeline and it can be rolled out from planning to electricity in months not years. Which then shifted overall electricity planning.
  - Moldoteck 2y ago
    it's not coincidence, they got panicked after fk, just like the rest of the world
    - Retric 2y ago
      Doubling nuclear generation in the next few years and increasing the number of reactors being planned hardly describes panic. Japan and Germany panicked. China did something else.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

China could build nuclear faster if they wanted to. They were building it faster in the 2010s and have slowed down, so they obviously have the capacity.

Moldoteck 2y ago
yes they slowed down and ramping up again now. 10+ reactors/yr approved, 30+ under construction, hualong build time of about 5 years, will probably drop to 4
mpweiher 2y ago
You don't want to build out too quickly, because the plants are so long-lasting. If you are aiming for a fleet of 200 reactors, you should be completing 2 per year.
- Retric 2y ago
  Growing demand means China could have ramped up much faster without that concern. ~5% of total supply after 2+ decades of nuclear construction is almost perfunctory.

mpweiher 2y ago

Yes, it's not because nuclear is unprofitable. It's because nuclear power plants are so durable, they last almost forever, but at least 80-100 years for modern plants. If you build out too quickly, you end up in the same situation the French found themselves in after the Messmer-plan predictions turned out to vastly overestimate demand: they were done after 15 years. With effectively no nuclear power plants to build for 45-85 years, their industry withered and they have had to re-learn building them. Not helped by the fact that there was a legal cap on the total amount of nuclear production.