4 ms·

> That may or may not be true in general, but air travel is one of the most oppressive environments people regularly find themselves in. Most people don't regu

> That may or may not be true in general, but air travel is one of the most oppressive environments people regularly find themselves in. Most people don't regularly travel by plane. This is a very "1%" (as shorthand for a privileged minority of people globally, not literally exactly 1% of the population) problem.

DrScientist 2y ago
1% of 300 million is still a 3 mill market size in the US alone.
aaomidi 2y ago
> Most people don't regularly travel by plane. This is a very "1%" problem. Except, they do in a country like the US that has massive distances between cities.
- tsimionescu 2y ago
  Even in the US, most people (50+% of the population) certainly doesn't regularly (say, more than once a decade) travel by plane.
  - renewiltord 2y ago
    49% in the last year according to this https://www.airlines.org/dataset/air-travelers-in-america-annual-survey/ https://www.airlines.org/dataset/air-travelers-in-america-an... Statista survey pre-pandemic says majority fly every year https://www.statista.com/statistics/316365/air-travel-frequency-us-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/316365/air-travel-freque... Americans fly quite often.
    - tsimionescu 2y ago
      Oh wow, I didn't imagine it's this many people. I stand corrected, thank you for looking up the numbers.
    - timeon 2y ago
      One of many reasons why per capita CO₂ emissions in US are 14.9t while in Germany, country that is always mentioned because they closed nuclear plants it is 'only' 8t (which is still higher than EU average).
  - dwaite 2y ago
    Families tend to get spread out and vacations tend to be very short. There is a strong encouragement to meet for recognized holidays, so these are by far the busiest times at airports. Last year, the prediction was 4.7 million people in the US traveling by plane over the thanksgiving holiday, which demolishes the 1% comment immediately.
    - dkdbejwi383 2y ago
      4.7m is ~0.05% of ~8bn
      - aaomidi 2y ago
        If you look at everything in the larger group of world population you’ll end up with a lot of useless info.
  - jandrewrogers 2y ago
    You are greatly underestimating how common it is for Americans to travel by plane. Almost half of Americans fly at least once a year. It is sufficiently inexpensive that almost everyone can readily afford to.
- diggan 2y ago
  I think that's supposed to be > Except, they do in a country like the US that don't have any other suitable alternatives
  - rootusrootus 2y ago
    A little bit of both, and they are related. Trains are a tough sell because they aren't competitive for most travel. Even at 300kph, they're only good for local-ish travel (by that, I mean up to perhaps as much as 1000km). Would be great for Portland to Seattle, or Portland to LA, but if you're going out of region (which is extremely common), an airplane will be way faster and almost certainly cheaper too. I'd love a moderately fast train, say 200kph, between cities like Portland and Seattle. That's a great use case. But as a nationwide network, there won't ever be a suitable rail alternative, unless it gets subsidized. Amtrak is already stupidly expensive for what you get.
jazzyjackson 2y ago
They didn't say most, they said people.
MPSimmons 2y ago
I don't think it's a 1% problem, but it's a 40% problem: https://www.airlines.org/new-survey-nearly-90-percent-of-americans-have-flown-commercially/ https://www.airlines.org/new-survey-nearly-90-percent-of-ame... 44% of Americans flew commercially in 2022.
- dkdbejwi383 2y ago
  There's a whole world outside of the USA.
  - petesergeant 2y ago
    Sure, but 11% of the global population fly in a year https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307779 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937802...
    - dkdbejwi383 2y ago
      And how many of those are regular vs. irregular trips? Probably not enough to make the statement that flying is a situation people find themselves in regularly.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
  - renewiltord 2y ago
    Yeah, but “Rest of World cannot afford luxury travel” is not a notable fact. The US is rich. Americans are rich. For many things, the US is the only market where it’s feasible. A self-driving car is useless in India (1/6 of all people), for instance. Labour costs are too low. It’s clear the Vision Pro didn’t find its market but I don’t think it’s an air travel thing.
- talldayo 2y ago
  80% of those people are flying economy class and already get along fine with earbuds and their phone. The remaining 20% that can afford something like Vision Pro almost certainly will choose not to.
mat_epice 2y ago
Google’s AI tool says that 20-25% of the world’s population flies at least three times a year. Not a good source, but at least a surprising statistic if true. Some hard data says that 12% of US flyers take 66% of flights [1]. Those are all likely very frequent fliers, and is much more than 1%. 1. https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31/majority-of-flights-taken-by-a-small-percentage-of-flyers/ https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31...

DrScientist 2y ago

1% of 300 million is still a 3 mill market size in the US alone.

aaomidi 2y ago

> Most people don't regularly travel by plane. This is a very "1%" problem. Except, they do in a country like the US that has massive distances between cities.

tsimionescu 2y ago
Even in the US, most people (50+% of the population) certainly doesn't regularly (say, more than once a decade) travel by plane.
- renewiltord 2y ago
  49% in the last year according to this https://www.airlines.org/dataset/air-travelers-in-america-annual-survey/ https://www.airlines.org/dataset/air-travelers-in-america-an... Statista survey pre-pandemic says majority fly every year https://www.statista.com/statistics/316365/air-travel-frequency-us-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/316365/air-travel-freque... Americans fly quite often.
  - tsimionescu 2y ago
    Oh wow, I didn't imagine it's this many people. I stand corrected, thank you for looking up the numbers.
  - timeon 2y ago
    One of many reasons why per capita CO₂ emissions in US are 14.9t while in Germany, country that is always mentioned because they closed nuclear plants it is 'only' 8t (which is still higher than EU average).
- dwaite 2y ago
  Families tend to get spread out and vacations tend to be very short. There is a strong encouragement to meet for recognized holidays, so these are by far the busiest times at airports. Last year, the prediction was 4.7 million people in the US traveling by plane over the thanksgiving holiday, which demolishes the 1% comment immediately.
  - dkdbejwi383 2y ago
    4.7m is ~0.05% of ~8bn
    - aaomidi 2y ago
      If you look at everything in the larger group of world population you’ll end up with a lot of useless info.
- jandrewrogers 2y ago
  You are greatly underestimating how common it is for Americans to travel by plane. Almost half of Americans fly at least once a year. It is sufficiently inexpensive that almost everyone can readily afford to.
diggan 2y ago
I think that's supposed to be > Except, they do in a country like the US that don't have any other suitable alternatives
- rootusrootus 2y ago
  A little bit of both, and they are related. Trains are a tough sell because they aren't competitive for most travel. Even at 300kph, they're only good for local-ish travel (by that, I mean up to perhaps as much as 1000km). Would be great for Portland to Seattle, or Portland to LA, but if you're going out of region (which is extremely common), an airplane will be way faster and almost certainly cheaper too. I'd love a moderately fast train, say 200kph, between cities like Portland and Seattle. That's a great use case. But as a nationwide network, there won't ever be a suitable rail alternative, unless it gets subsidized. Amtrak is already stupidly expensive for what you get.

jazzyjackson 2y ago

They didn't say most, they said people.

MPSimmons 2y ago

I don't think it's a 1% problem, but it's a 40% problem: https://www.airlines.org/new-survey-nearly-90-percent-of-americans-have-flown-commercially/ https://www.airlines.org/new-survey-nearly-90-percent-of-ame... 44% of Americans flew commercially in 2022.

dkdbejwi383 2y ago
There's a whole world outside of the USA.
- petesergeant 2y ago
  Sure, but 11% of the global population fly in a year https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307779 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937802...
  - dkdbejwi383 2y ago
    And how many of those are regular vs. irregular trips? Probably not enough to make the statement that flying is a situation people find themselves in regularly.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- renewiltord 2y ago
  Yeah, but “Rest of World cannot afford luxury travel” is not a notable fact. The US is rich. Americans are rich. For many things, the US is the only market where it’s feasible. A self-driving car is useless in India (1/6 of all people), for instance. Labour costs are too low. It’s clear the Vision Pro didn’t find its market but I don’t think it’s an air travel thing.
talldayo 2y ago
80% of those people are flying economy class and already get along fine with earbuds and their phone. The remaining 20% that can afford something like Vision Pro almost certainly will choose not to.

mat_epice 2y ago

Google’s AI tool says that 20-25% of the world’s population flies at least three times a year. Not a good source, but at least a surprising statistic if true. Some hard data says that 12% of US flyers take 66% of flights [1]. Those are all likely very frequent fliers, and is much more than 1%. 1. https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31/majority-of-flights-taken-by-a-small-percentage-of-flyers/ https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31...