5 ms·

I think we all know that HW3 cars can't do self driving. Elon knew this from the beginning. The idea has always been -- implicitly -- that when they solve FSD T

by gizmo 2y ago

I think we all know that HW3 cars can't do self driving. Elon knew this from the beginning. The idea has always been -- implicitly -- that when they solve FSD Tesla will have so much money they can just upgrade the old cars with new hardware. It just turns out that solving FSD is orders of magnitude more difficult than Elon anticipated. Despite many rewrites of the FSD stack Tesla still has a long way to go. Unyielding optimism is a double edged sword. You'll try things other people won't dare to. Incredible rewards when you prove the naysayers wrong but you face harsh criticism when you fail at things others won't even try.

nojvek 2y ago
The thesis makes sense. Humans drive with a 20 watt brain, two cameras (eyes), two microphones (ears). Tesla has 9 cameras surrounding the car, I assume some microphones (not sure). Two big fat neural processors that can fails over incase one fails. If they crack the human perception algorithm, they'd have the cheapest robotaxis on the road and have multi trillion valuation. However cracking human perception seems much more complex than what was estimated and foretold. I'm grateful we have multiple US companies trying different approaches. Competition is a wonderful gift.
- SilverBirch 2y ago
  Does it make sense? Is there any other area where the simple amount of energy used indicates a problem's solution? How long before my Kettle is self-driving, that's got 3kW it should be winning the Formula 1 by now.
- piva00 2y ago
  > However cracking human perception seems much more complex than what was estimated and foretold. Who was estimating that cracking how the human brain works, specifically the visual cortex together with our decision-making, would be the easier path to this endeavour? It was clear it would be a very complex thing to anyone who actually knows about the human brain, the rest was just wishful thinking.
- JohnFen 2y ago
  > Humans drive with a 20 watt brain, two cameras (eyes), two microphones (ears). And a huge amount of tactile feedback.
  - xethos 2y ago
    Telling me other motorists drive by Braille actually explains quite a lot
lopkeny12ko 2y ago
I can immediately tell that this is the perspective of someone whose sole source of information about FSD is the MSM. My Tesla drives me around the city autonomously every day, and you're sitting here telling me it doesn't. FSD is already a solved problem. It's real, you can buy it, and you can use it, right now. And it keeps getting better and better with every new version.
- piva00 2y ago
  Anecdotes are never a good sample. It drives well in your city but we don't know anything about how has Tesla tailored that experience to your city. Did they need to run around mapping it with their own LIDARs and feed into some learning model to provide it in your city? Because that won't scale. Did they use only camera vision? Because there's also multiple videos showing FSD not driving well at all in some cities. We cannot tell, and that's the whole problem, your anecdote that FSD works well for you is a N = 1, there are other reports on HN about others having the same experience as you, it's great it works for you, people! It doesn't mean it's been generalised and works in any city, we simply cannot know, and the longer time passes the less trust the general public has with Tesla. As another anecdote: I know at least 2 people for which FSD doesn't work well in their cities, to the point where they're afraid of turning it on even when paying full attention, and both regret paying for it. This is not a good sample either, we just don't have enough data.
  - andrewinardeer 2y ago
    > It drives well in your city but we don't know anything about how has Tesla tailored that experience to your city. Spot on. I am keen to see how FSD manages to execute hook turns to accommodate for the trams here in Melbourne, AU. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_turn https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_turn
- cameldrv 2y ago
  What was promised was a robotaxi, not “keep your eyes on the road or FSD will disengage.” As it is, if you let FSD drive and don’t ever intervene, you will have frequent crashes.

by gizmo 2y ago

nojvek 2y ago

The thesis makes sense. Humans drive with a 20 watt brain, two cameras (eyes), two microphones (ears). Tesla has 9 cameras surrounding the car, I assume some microphones (not sure). Two big fat neural processors that can fails over incase one fails. If they crack the human perception algorithm, they'd have the cheapest robotaxis on the road and have multi trillion valuation. However cracking human perception seems much more complex than what was estimated and foretold. I'm grateful we have multiple US companies trying different approaches. Competition is a wonderful gift.

SilverBirch 2y ago
Does it make sense? Is there any other area where the simple amount of energy used indicates a problem's solution? How long before my Kettle is self-driving, that's got 3kW it should be winning the Formula 1 by now.
piva00 2y ago
> However cracking human perception seems much more complex than what was estimated and foretold. Who was estimating that cracking how the human brain works, specifically the visual cortex together with our decision-making, would be the easier path to this endeavour? It was clear it would be a very complex thing to anyone who actually knows about the human brain, the rest was just wishful thinking.
JohnFen 2y ago
> Humans drive with a 20 watt brain, two cameras (eyes), two microphones (ears). And a huge amount of tactile feedback.
- xethos 2y ago
  Telling me other motorists drive by Braille actually explains quite a lot

lopkeny12ko 2y ago

I can immediately tell that this is the perspective of someone whose sole source of information about FSD is the MSM. My Tesla drives me around the city autonomously every day, and you're sitting here telling me it doesn't. FSD is already a solved problem. It's real, you can buy it, and you can use it, right now. And it keeps getting better and better with every new version.

piva00 2y ago
Anecdotes are never a good sample. It drives well in your city but we don't know anything about how has Tesla tailored that experience to your city. Did they need to run around mapping it with their own LIDARs and feed into some learning model to provide it in your city? Because that won't scale. Did they use only camera vision? Because there's also multiple videos showing FSD not driving well at all in some cities. We cannot tell, and that's the whole problem, your anecdote that FSD works well for you is a N = 1, there are other reports on HN about others having the same experience as you, it's great it works for you, people! It doesn't mean it's been generalised and works in any city, we simply cannot know, and the longer time passes the less trust the general public has with Tesla. As another anecdote: I know at least 2 people for which FSD doesn't work well in their cities, to the point where they're afraid of turning it on even when paying full attention, and both regret paying for it. This is not a good sample either, we just don't have enough data.
- andrewinardeer 2y ago
  > It drives well in your city but we don't know anything about how has Tesla tailored that experience to your city. Spot on. I am keen to see how FSD manages to execute hook turns to accommodate for the trams here in Melbourne, AU. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_turn https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_turn
cameldrv 2y ago
What was promised was a robotaxi, not “keep your eyes on the road or FSD will disengage.” As it is, if you let FSD drive and don’t ever intervene, you will have frequent crashes.