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You're thinking linearly. Remember, at least right now technology is growing exponentially. In 5 years your cell phone could potentially have as much power as

by swalsh 14y ago

You're thinking linearly. Remember, at least right now technology is growing exponentially. In 5 years your cell phone could potentially have as much power as your laptop today. Though i'd guess it will be more. It'll have all the power it needs. Combine it with glasses, or some other yet unknown form factor, we might be stumbling on something really unique. There's a lot of value in only having 1 computer device. We're only 1 or 2 innovations away from real pervasive computing.

thenomad 14y ago
Moore's Law has been around for a while now, and we haven't run out of things to do with the power yet. I'm reasonably sure that improvements in AI, rendering, image processing and similar things will continue to absorb processing power for some time to come. Hell, on the rendering front, I can probably spend a few hours researching and tell you precisely which techniques will become usable with 2, 3 and 5 years' improvement at current rates. F'r example: true multi-bounce real-time ray-tracing through "Brave"-level hair and fur. Looks awesome. Is, erm, some way off being possible computationally speaking. Or, for that matter, the sort of hair physics simulation they used on the same movie - to the best of my knowledge, also Not Yet Doable In Realtime (and some way off).
SCdF 14y ago
I don't think you should discount different form factors being useful in different situations. Tablets are great for consuming content, and creating certain types of content, but as much as you can write a novel on one, a real keyboard is better for writing one. (yes I know you can buy a keyboard dock, but that sort of misses the point, doesn't it?) And as much as I can play games on a tablet, unless it's a very specific niche where the gameplay revolves around your input method being a static slate of glass (e.g. Fruit Ninja, arguably Angry Birds) having actual buttons for input is better for gaming. So I can totally see 'normal' people just owning one device that does everything OK-ish (but at least it does everything) and I think for all 'new' normal people that's basically happening, but I really don't think you're going to see other form factors go away. Authors still want to type quickly, gamers still want actual controls where they can exercise muscle memory, and I hackers still want to be able to tinker with their devices and build cool new shit.

by swalsh 14y ago

thenomad 14y ago

Moore's Law has been around for a while now, and we haven't run out of things to do with the power yet. I'm reasonably sure that improvements in AI, rendering, image processing and similar things will continue to absorb processing power for some time to come. Hell, on the rendering front, I can probably spend a few hours researching and tell you precisely which techniques will become usable with 2, 3 and 5 years' improvement at current rates. F'r example: true multi-bounce real-time ray-tracing through "Brave"-level hair and fur. Looks awesome. Is, erm, some way off being possible computationally speaking. Or, for that matter, the sort of hair physics simulation they used on the same movie - to the best of my knowledge, also Not Yet Doable In Realtime (and some way off).

SCdF 14y ago

I don't think you should discount different form factors being useful in different situations. Tablets are great for consuming content, and creating certain types of content, but as much as you can write a novel on one, a real keyboard is better for writing one. (yes I know you can buy a keyboard dock, but that sort of misses the point, doesn't it?) And as much as I can play games on a tablet, unless it's a very specific niche where the gameplay revolves around your input method being a static slate of glass (e.g. Fruit Ninja, arguably Angry Birds) having actual buttons for input is better for gaming. So I can totally see 'normal' people just owning one device that does everything OK-ish (but at least it does everything) and I think for all 'new' normal people that's basically happening, but I really don't think you're going to see other form factors go away. Authors still want to type quickly, gamers still want actual controls where they can exercise muscle memory, and I hackers still want to be able to tinker with their devices and build cool new shit.