6 ms·

Not only the climate is warmer than models anticipated, we're doing worse to prevent it than pessimistic expectations.

by agilob 2y ago

worstspotgain 2y ago
Not only that, we're approaching a massive tipping point in just a couple of weeks. Some of the "poser pontificators" claim to be concerned about the climate, yet they're not even sure they will vote. If you have relatives in college in MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, NV or AZ who are concerned about the climate, get them to shake off the stupor.
- FeepingCreature 2y ago
  I mean, I'm not even sure which way I'd vote for climate. Here's one take: "Things are clearly out of control. We need climate mitigations that can be done unilaterally. One promising and surprisingly-feasible approach is a sun-synchronous solar-shade swarm.[1] That needs very cheap and frequent launches to be feasible. The only option is SpaceX/Starship. Politically, to get that going as soon as possible, it may be beneficial to have a weaker FAA. Hence probably Trump." If you think the "business-as-usual" climate mitigations will be insufficient, it may be worthwhile to go for high-variance approaches that leave humanity better able to react relatively quickly to unexpectedly large warming. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade#Lightweight_solutions_and_%22Space_bubbles%22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade#Lightweight_sol...
  - grecy 2y ago
    SpaceX doesn’t need a weaker FAA to keep launching very frequently, they’re already doing that. A bit faster approvals for Starship, sure. They’re getting it done.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. Why not just steer an asteroid onto Earth. The sooner it gets obliterated, the sooner life can reemerge. /s
    - FeepingCreature 2y ago
      > That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. The thing is, I agree with you, but I don't think that's actually that convincing an argument. Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. Green energy might go faster or slower, but that doesn't necessarily matter in terms of preventing very bad outcomes. I think the high-concept paths to mitigation are a lot easier to delay than the "business as usual" eco trend.
      - worstspotgain 2y ago
        > Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. No, he actually would [1][2][3][4]. And that's without even counting Putin. When they tell you who they are, believe them. [1] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate-treaty-withdrawal-again-00165903 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-chief-slams-trump-over-threat-revoke-ev-investments-2024-10-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-chief-slams-trump-over-... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/trump-pledges-to-end-the-green-new-scam-video https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/trump-pledg... [4] https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-recent-interactions-saudis-crown-prince-matter-rcna146395 https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-r...
        FeepingCreature 2y ago
        I think the primary trend isn't based on the agreement but on the economic reality that solar panels are cheap and still getting cheaper. You can speed it up or slow it down, but it's not reversible at this point. You might have four years of slowboating, but that only matters if we're on the edge of disaster. If we're already committed to disaster, to the extent that we need radical interventions to plausibly achieve success, whether you slowboat the trend doesn't matter.
        worstspotgain 2y ago
- swed420 2y ago
  Unfortunately the passage of time has shown that lesser-evils "vote blue no matter hoo" is not even close to sufficient in addressing this crisis. Capital interests are to blame, and in the US, we have two political parties entirely controlled by capital. Other countries aren't much different. https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7 https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to...
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    You do realize of course that this is exactly the claim that someone who wanted to get the worst candidate in the history of the presidency (by a few orders of magnitude) elected would make?
    - swed420 2y ago
      Dems propped up Trump using their Pied Piper strategy coupled with Hillary's lousy campaigning "efforts." They dug their own grave, and it doesn't matter to the revolving doors of the machine in the grand scheme, since back to my original point, we have two parties of capital. Democracy is illusory. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/how-asset-managers-have-upended-how-modern-capitalism-works.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/how-asset-managers-h...
      - worstspotgain 2y ago
        OK tovarich, my regards to Vladimir.
        swed420 2y ago
        Laughs in Chinese
    - xracy 2y ago
      You do realize that this is exactly the kind of feedback that people who are tired of the 'vote blue no matter who' refrain have been giving for years, that has been ignored. Like the people who are getting voted for need to actually turn around and justify the vote we're making for them. And they've been failing to do that, and pointing to the thing that is clearly worse as a reason why they don't have to do better.
puzzlingcaptcha 2y ago
There will be two events than may sway the skeptics. The first one will be an extended heat wave exceeding heat index temperatures of 55C (35C at 80% humidity) resulting in massive casualties, probably somewhere in a humid climate with an overloaded electrical grid and/or poor access to AC. The second one will be when the skeptics themselves die. Needless to say, I am not very optimistic about getting climate change under control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index#Table_of_values https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index#Table_of_values

Not only the climate is warmer than models anticipated, we're doing worse to prevent it than pessimistic expectations.

by agilob 2y ago

Not only the climate is warmer than models anticipated, we're doing worse to prevent it than pessimistic expectations.

Not only that, we're approaching a massive tipping point in just a couple of weeks. Some of the "poser pontificators" claim to be concerned about the climate, yet they're not even sure they will vote. If you have relatives in college in MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, NV or AZ who are concerned about the climate, get them to shake off the stupor.

FeepingCreature 2y ago
I mean, I'm not even sure which way I'd vote for climate. Here's one take: "Things are clearly out of control. We need climate mitigations that can be done unilaterally. One promising and surprisingly-feasible approach is a sun-synchronous solar-shade swarm.[1] That needs very cheap and frequent launches to be feasible. The only option is SpaceX/Starship. Politically, to get that going as soon as possible, it may be beneficial to have a weaker FAA. Hence probably Trump." If you think the "business-as-usual" climate mitigations will be insufficient, it may be worthwhile to go for high-variance approaches that leave humanity better able to react relatively quickly to unexpectedly large warming. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade#Lightweight_solutions_and_%22Space_bubbles%22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade#Lightweight_sol...
- grecy 2y ago
  SpaceX doesn’t need a weaker FAA to keep launching very frequently, they’re already doing that. A bit faster approvals for Starship, sure. They’re getting it done.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. Why not just steer an asteroid onto Earth. The sooner it gets obliterated, the sooner life can reemerge. /s
  - FeepingCreature 2y ago
    > That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. The thing is, I agree with you, but I don't think that's actually that convincing an argument. Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. Green energy might go faster or slower, but that doesn't necessarily matter in terms of preventing very bad outcomes. I think the high-concept paths to mitigation are a lot easier to delay than the "business as usual" eco trend.
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      > Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. No, he actually would [1][2][3][4]. And that's without even counting Putin. When they tell you who they are, believe them. [1] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate-treaty-withdrawal-again-00165903 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-chief-slams-trump-over-threat-revoke-ev-investments-2024-10-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-chief-slams-trump-over-... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/trump-pledges-to-end-the-green-new-scam-video https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/trump-pledg... [4] https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-recent-interactions-saudis-crown-prince-matter-rcna146395 https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-r...
      - FeepingCreature 2y ago
        I think the primary trend isn't based on the agreement but on the economic reality that solar panels are cheap and still getting cheaper. You can speed it up or slow it down, but it's not reversible at this point. You might have four years of slowboating, but that only matters if we're on the edge of disaster. If we're already committed to disaster, to the extent that we need radical interventions to plausibly achieve success, whether you slowboat the trend doesn't matter.
        worstspotgain 2y ago
swed420 2y ago
Unfortunately the passage of time has shown that lesser-evils "vote blue no matter hoo" is not even close to sufficient in addressing this crisis. Capital interests are to blame, and in the US, we have two political parties entirely controlled by capital. Other countries aren't much different. https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7 https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to...
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  You do realize of course that this is exactly the claim that someone who wanted to get the worst candidate in the history of the presidency (by a few orders of magnitude) elected would make?
  - swed420 2y ago
    Dems propped up Trump using their Pied Piper strategy coupled with Hillary's lousy campaigning "efforts." They dug their own grave, and it doesn't matter to the revolving doors of the machine in the grand scheme, since back to my original point, we have two parties of capital. Democracy is illusory. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/how-asset-managers-have-upended-how-modern-capitalism-works.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/how-asset-managers-h...
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      OK tovarich, my regards to Vladimir.
      - swed420 2y ago
        Laughs in Chinese
  - xracy 2y ago
    You do realize that this is exactly the kind of feedback that people who are tired of the 'vote blue no matter who' refrain have been giving for years, that has been ignored. Like the people who are getting voted for need to actually turn around and justify the vote we're making for them. And they've been failing to do that, and pointing to the thing that is clearly worse as a reason why they don't have to do better.

puzzlingcaptcha 2y ago

There will be two events than may sway the skeptics. The first one will be an extended heat wave exceeding heat index temperatures of 55C (35C at 80% humidity) resulting in massive casualties, probably somewhere in a humid climate with an overloaded electrical grid and/or poor access to AC. The second one will be when the skeptics themselves die. Needless to say, I am not very optimistic about getting climate change under control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index#Table_of_values https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index#Table_of_values