That's why I said we need to know: > 2. Assuming it's rigged, how likely it's rigged in a way that the percentage is precisely XX.X% But I didn't realize he w

That's why I said we need to know: > 2. Assuming it's rigged, how likely it's rigged in a way that the percentage is precisely XX.X% But I didn't realize he wrote a blog post about it. He actually addressed everything I listed (and more) in detail: https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-ii-the-venezuelan-presidential-election/ https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-... TL;DR: Yes, we need to know all these priori probabilities to get the exact answer. He made an assumption about them.