3 ms·
Not all numbers come out equally as likely. Round numbers are more likely to be picked by humans (or at least that's the argument)
by ithkuil 2y ago
Not all numbers come out equally as likely. Round numbers are more likely to be picked by humans (or at least that's the argument)
- raincole 2y agoThat's why I said we need to know: > 2. Assuming it's rigged, how likely it's rigged in a way that the percentage is precisely XX.X% But I didn't realize he wrote a blog post about it. He actually addressed everything I listed (and more) in detail: https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-ii-the-venezuelan-presidential-election/ https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-... TL;DR: Yes, we need to know all these priori probabilities to get the exact answer. He made an assumption about them.