4 ms·
Someone should really create a dataset comparing predicted damage/casualties of storms vs. actual outcomes. It would really help set context for stuff like the
by next_xibalba 2y ago
Someone should really create a dataset comparing predicted damage/casualties of storms vs. actual outcomes. It would really help set context for stuff like the panic around Milton, stoked by entertainers masquerading as meteorologists (such as this gentleman: [1]).
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A
- croes 2y agoEver heard of the Prevention paradox? What if the actual outcome is changed by the predicted damages.
- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 2y agoNot that you're wrong but you're thinking of the preparedness paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox
- croes 2y agoThanks, didn't know the english name of it
- spoonfeeder006 2y agoI wonder how many homeless people get killed by the storm, but who don't make it into the statistics though....
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- elicksaur 2y agoThat man has been a meteorologist for decades. Is all of his work just entertainment or did he just happen to become the main character for a day on the internet?
- tarentel 2y agoPeople do make these date sets. They're called actuaries, unfortunately, they're not doing it to help people. I worked at an insurance company briefly and there was a whole team that ran various models of storms to determine how much they needed to charge people, how much coverage that premium would cover, possible damage done, previous storm damage, etc. It was actually pretty cool albeit not exactly a job you could feel good about at the end of the day.
- next_xibalba 2y agoI’m not referring to actuarial predictions. I’m referring to predictions made by public figures at or to media outlets (such as the one I linked to).
- davidcalloway 2y agoI don't understand why you wouldn't feel good about this job. Ultimately, you are assisting in creating (hopefully accurate) signals that help summarize risk to simplify decision-making. Seems like honorable work to me...