5 ms·

Meteorologists, please stop the fearmongering (2019)

44 points by Alupis 2y ago

johnea 2y ago
Fear mongering is a major source of media industry revenue. Are you saying that the HN crowd is advocating for reducing an activity that makes money for rich people? I seriously doubt that...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
bobthepanda 2y ago
To some degree I also worry that panicking about everything causes the population to become numb to the warnings of actual big storms like Helene and Milton.
- elmomle 2y ago
  I'm not sure if there's another name for this, but it seems like an variant of alarm fatigue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue
blast 2y ago
They're TV personalities. What else are they going to do?
- topspin 2y ago
  Hopefully fade away, like town criers. I'm astonished this is still profitable given the high costs. I think they're on the margins: the quality of presenters and production has fallen dramatically from back in the day.
  - Alupis 2y ago
    There's single-person YouTube channels that consistently get more views than MSM shows. It's a different landscape today.
    - topspin 2y ago
      The networks also have YouTube channels, and when something happens are they're in direct competition with non-network channels they get ratio-ed by an order of magnitude. Most recently that happened with Milton. I find it impossible to listen to patronizing presenters on network television an longer. That's before we even get to the group-think they peddle whenever the matter is controversial.
labster 2y ago
As a meteorologist, I agree. Fear-mongering endangers people’s lives, because they are less likely to believe a real warning and just “ride it out”.
jmugan 2y ago
Agreed on the individual events, but the trend is pretty scary. My daughter went to pick out a pumpkin yesterday in Austin and it was 100 degrees. Christ.
Alupis 2y ago
Today, my phone says "Red Flag (Fire Weather) Warning" in big, bold letters across the lock screen. Imagine growing up in a world where your primary-computing device is constantly telling you to be afraid of darn near everything all the time. This past summer - constant alerts about summer heat. Yes, we know it's hot outside, experts used to call it summer, but now it's "Heat Wave Alert 90+ Degrees in the Valley in the middle of August!" - duh... We're training everyone to always be afraid. Then we wonder why our youth think the world is going to end in a couple years...
- russdill 2y ago
  Many of the most damaging fires here in southern California have been started by people doing things during a red flag warning that they absolutely should not be doing. Loss of property, loss of life.
  - adamrezich 2y ago
    Well, that, and your corrupt state's government squandering its unthinkably massive budget as usual, instead of spending it on adequate fire prevention. (For those saying Californian forests are federally managed—what is https://www.fire.ca.gov https://www.fire.ca.gov ?)
    - Alupis 2y ago
      A non-trivial number of these fires in recent years have been traced to homeless encampments as well.
      - adamrezich 2y ago
        That can't be true—those are all responsible, upstanding Californians!
    - uberman 2y ago
      The majority of forest in CA is federally owned and managed.
next_xibalba 2y ago
Someone should really create a dataset comparing predicted damage/casualties of storms vs. actual outcomes. It would really help set context for stuff like the panic around Milton, stoked by entertainers masquerading as meteorologists (such as this gentleman: [1]). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A
- croes 2y ago
  Ever heard of the Prevention paradox? What if the actual outcome is changed by the predicted damages.
  - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 2y ago
    Not that you're wrong but you're thinking of the preparedness paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox
    - croes 2y ago
      Thanks, didn't know the english name of it
- spoonfeeder006 2y ago
  I wonder how many homeless people get killed by the storm, but who don't make it into the statistics though....
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- elicksaur 2y ago
  That man has been a meteorologist for decades. Is all of his work just entertainment or did he just happen to become the main character for a day on the internet?
- tarentel 2y ago
if_by_whisky 2y ago
What you call fearmongering is, for the news channels, just proper monetization of their businesses. I'm often disappointed in other consumers (who should know better, or have better taste in entertainment). They're the root problem here. News businesses exist to follow the nutrient gradient of what makes money. Asking them to do something else just feels naive.
- hbosch 2y ago
  Weather events and natural disasters are a news corporations favorite thing to exploit. No single person to blame, plenty of hysteria, changing conditions... all combines for the broadest possible audience that feels compelled to stay tuned in for the next update. I personally love the exaggerated visuals of a "15 ft storm surge" filling up the entirety of downtown Tampa in 3D, you just KNOW everyone loves to dust off that special stage to show a totally ridiculous CG storm render.
- terminalbraid 2y ago
  I disagree that it's "proper" especially when it starts to stray into "irresponsible"
- adamrezich 2y ago
  Why do you place the blame on the consumers? The idea that the media is full of shit by default is a very new one that most people have not internalized and almost certainly never will.
- metabagel 2y ago
  The root problem is our capitalist system and lack of countervailing values and systems.
- elmomle 2y ago
  We consume what is around this. To fault or ask for change in the consumer is to fault or ask for change human nature, which is a futile endeavor. It seems that a well-functioning society would be structured with the awareness of this fact, and with safeguards to ensure that media isn't a race to the bottom of emotional manipulation (not because of any moralistic hand-wringing, but because it's detrimental to society when that's what media has become). The real (and really big) question is, what productive steps can we take in that direction?
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
My favorite recent example of this: I don't mean to minimize the damage and deaths that Milton caused, but right after the storm it felt like nearly every newscast led with the visual of the tattered roof of the Tampa Bay Rays stadium. It made for a good, scary visual. All the newscasters where oohing and ahhing about the damage. But the only thing torn was apparently the garbage-bag like cover on the roof (I'm joking, but only slightly - the roof cover was only a thick vinyl). I would have been surprised if that roof hadn't been torn to shreds. It was poor journalism IMO because it just made me think "if that's the worst they can come up with, it must have been really mild", which wasn't true (Milton did cause less damage than anticipated due to where it landed, but there were still a bunch of deaths, many caused by spawned tornadoes).
- graupel 2y ago
  While I, as a Meteorologist and formerly involved in the TV business, I agree with you on using visuals entirely to overstate this, the fact that the field in the dome was set up before the storm to house thousands of electrical lineman and relief workers expected after the storm, says that the roof coming off was NOT an expected outcome from Milton, making it a reasonable way to tell the story on the news.
  - kcplate 2y ago
    > to house thousands of electrical lineman and relief workers expected after the storm This was the crux of the story at least locally in Central Florida. I have no idea if that was lost in coverage outside of the area in favor of the visual impacts of the torn roof.
beloch 2y ago
Saying “It’s going to be dangerous out there" when it's merely a bit below freezing (Sorry, am Canadian) can legitimately be called fear-mongering. Some people are going to get a little chilly and learn a life lesson about wearing proper clothing, but minor cold is relatively easy to react to. Even if someone decides to go for a drive in the country with nothing but shorts on, help is readily at hand in most places if they have a breakdown. On the other hand, scaring people about natural disasters like hurricanes can and does save lives. Milton didn't turn out to be the storm of the century as some were saying, but it still killed three hundred people. How many more might have died if people hadn't taken it so seriously? Let's just be thankful that lawyers haven't found a way to sue weather forecasters for being incorrect, because then we'd have no weather forecasts.
- gosub100 2y ago
  I would wager that many of the deaths are from homeless people that don't exactly have a closet to store their cold-weather gear in. And when snow storms hit places that normally don't get them, it's a huge deal because people don't know how to drive in it. Even if it's not artic circle cold outside
  - beloch 2y ago
    I'm not saying cold weather doesn't produce issues, especially for places unaccustomed to it. I'm saying the impact is on a different scale than from a natural disaster, so perhaps it's wise to reserve catastrophic language for potential catastrophes. If you use the same language for cold weather as you do for hurricanes, people might not take hurricanes seriously enough.
- hluska 2y ago
  There is a tremendous amount of misinformation in this. 1.) When meteorologists say it will be dangerous, it is either cold enough for exposed skin to freeze or very slippery. Both of those situations are dangerous. 2.)Help is not readily available in ‘the country’. I could drive you forty five minutes outside of my city and you will have no cell service. People die in their cars out in the country. If you’re not careful with cold, you’ve been trusting luck instead of foresight. Cold is very dangerous.
SoftTalker 2y ago
I'd settle for a reliable forcast for tomorrow.
standardUser 2y ago
Helene and Milton were severe storms that killed people (despite ample advanced warning) and caused historically significant amounts of damage. Are there other storms that people are being bombarded with dire warnings about that I don't hear about because I live in NY? Because as far as I can tell, the only two recent weather events to get substantial coverage were roughly as devastating as warned. The bigger problem seems to be politically-inspired idiots sending death threats to meteorologist because they'll believe every conspiracy theory they hear from their ultra-right news sources and elected officials: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/meteorologists-threats-conspiracy-theories-hurricanes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/meteorologists-threats...
eximius 2y ago
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
23B1 2y ago
Journalism is a storytelling business that is optimized for psychological impact, no more and no less honorable than writing a children's book or a screenplay. Scientists are after fact. Philosophers are after truth. The commentariat are after repeat customers. This isn't a dig on journalists or meteorologists btw, but let's drop the heroic pretense. Even Edward Murrow shoveled mostly slop.
thebeardisred 2y ago
What bugs me about this is that it's an armchair analysis from someone 11°+ north in latitude (Lake Placid is a five hour drive north of New York City. Additionally, I looked up the historic weather data. In a span of 3 weeks there was a temperature swing of over 25°C in Atlanta. Finally, the author completely and disingenuously ignores that the US south does not have snow removal equipment to the same degree. In emergencies that equipment has to get trucked down... Assuming it's not needed in the localities lending it.

44 points by Alupis 2y ago

Fear mongering is a major source of media industry revenue. Are you saying that the HN crowd is advocating for reducing an activity that makes money for rich people? I seriously doubt that...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

bobthepanda 2y ago

To some degree I also worry that panicking about everything causes the population to become numb to the warnings of actual big storms like Helene and Milton.

elmomle 2y ago
I'm not sure if there's another name for this, but it seems like an variant of alarm fatigue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue

blast 2y ago

They're TV personalities. What else are they going to do?

topspin 2y ago
Hopefully fade away, like town criers. I'm astonished this is still profitable given the high costs. I think they're on the margins: the quality of presenters and production has fallen dramatically from back in the day.
- Alupis 2y ago
  There's single-person YouTube channels that consistently get more views than MSM shows. It's a different landscape today.
  - topspin 2y ago
    The networks also have YouTube channels, and when something happens are they're in direct competition with non-network channels they get ratio-ed by an order of magnitude. Most recently that happened with Milton. I find it impossible to listen to patronizing presenters on network television an longer. That's before we even get to the group-think they peddle whenever the matter is controversial.

labster 2y ago

As a meteorologist, I agree. Fear-mongering endangers people’s lives, because they are less likely to believe a real warning and just “ride it out”.

jmugan 2y ago

Agreed on the individual events, but the trend is pretty scary. My daughter went to pick out a pumpkin yesterday in Austin and it was 100 degrees. Christ.

Alupis 2y ago

Today, my phone says "Red Flag (Fire Weather) Warning" in big, bold letters across the lock screen. Imagine growing up in a world where your primary-computing device is constantly telling you to be afraid of darn near everything all the time. This past summer - constant alerts about summer heat. Yes, we know it's hot outside, experts used to call it summer, but now it's "Heat Wave Alert 90+ Degrees in the Valley in the middle of August!" - duh... We're training everyone to always be afraid. Then we wonder why our youth think the world is going to end in a couple years...

russdill 2y ago
Many of the most damaging fires here in southern California have been started by people doing things during a red flag warning that they absolutely should not be doing. Loss of property, loss of life.
- adamrezich 2y ago
  Well, that, and your corrupt state's government squandering its unthinkably massive budget as usual, instead of spending it on adequate fire prevention. (For those saying Californian forests are federally managed—what is https://www.fire.ca.gov https://www.fire.ca.gov ?)
  - Alupis 2y ago
    A non-trivial number of these fires in recent years have been traced to homeless encampments as well.
    - adamrezich 2y ago
      That can't be true—those are all responsible, upstanding Californians!
  - uberman 2y ago
    The majority of forest in CA is federally owned and managed.

next_xibalba 2y ago

Someone should really create a dataset comparing predicted damage/casualties of storms vs. actual outcomes. It would really help set context for stuff like the panic around Milton, stoked by entertainers masquerading as meteorologists (such as this gentleman: [1]). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImrqhcMDL9A

croes 2y ago
Ever heard of the Prevention paradox? What if the actual outcome is changed by the predicted damages.
- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 2y ago
  Not that you're wrong but you're thinking of the preparedness paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox
  - croes 2y ago
    Thanks, didn't know the english name of it
spoonfeeder006 2y ago
I wonder how many homeless people get killed by the storm, but who don't make it into the statistics though....
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
elicksaur 2y ago
That man has been a meteorologist for decades. Is all of his work just entertainment or did he just happen to become the main character for a day on the internet?
tarentel 2y ago

if_by_whisky 2y ago

What you call fearmongering is, for the news channels, just proper monetization of their businesses. I'm often disappointed in other consumers (who should know better, or have better taste in entertainment). They're the root problem here. News businesses exist to follow the nutrient gradient of what makes money. Asking them to do something else just feels naive.

hbosch 2y ago
Weather events and natural disasters are a news corporations favorite thing to exploit. No single person to blame, plenty of hysteria, changing conditions... all combines for the broadest possible audience that feels compelled to stay tuned in for the next update. I personally love the exaggerated visuals of a "15 ft storm surge" filling up the entirety of downtown Tampa in 3D, you just KNOW everyone loves to dust off that special stage to show a totally ridiculous CG storm render.
terminalbraid 2y ago
I disagree that it's "proper" especially when it starts to stray into "irresponsible"
adamrezich 2y ago
Why do you place the blame on the consumers? The idea that the media is full of shit by default is a very new one that most people have not internalized and almost certainly never will.
metabagel 2y ago
The root problem is our capitalist system and lack of countervailing values and systems.
elmomle 2y ago
We consume what is around this. To fault or ask for change in the consumer is to fault or ask for change human nature, which is a futile endeavor. It seems that a well-functioning society would be structured with the awareness of this fact, and with safeguards to ensure that media isn't a race to the bottom of emotional manipulation (not because of any moralistic hand-wringing, but because it's detrimental to society when that's what media has become). The real (and really big) question is, what productive steps can we take in that direction?

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

My favorite recent example of this: I don't mean to minimize the damage and deaths that Milton caused, but right after the storm it felt like nearly every newscast led with the visual of the tattered roof of the Tampa Bay Rays stadium. It made for a good, scary visual. All the newscasters where oohing and ahhing about the damage. But the only thing torn was apparently the garbage-bag like cover on the roof (I'm joking, but only slightly - the roof cover was only a thick vinyl). I would have been surprised if that roof hadn't been torn to shreds. It was poor journalism IMO because it just made me think "if that's the worst they can come up with, it must have been really mild", which wasn't true (Milton did cause less damage than anticipated due to where it landed, but there were still a bunch of deaths, many caused by spawned tornadoes).

graupel 2y ago
While I, as a Meteorologist and formerly involved in the TV business, I agree with you on using visuals entirely to overstate this, the fact that the field in the dome was set up before the storm to house thousands of electrical lineman and relief workers expected after the storm, says that the roof coming off was NOT an expected outcome from Milton, making it a reasonable way to tell the story on the news.
- kcplate 2y ago
  > to house thousands of electrical lineman and relief workers expected after the storm This was the crux of the story at least locally in Central Florida. I have no idea if that was lost in coverage outside of the area in favor of the visual impacts of the torn roof.

beloch 2y ago

Saying “It’s going to be dangerous out there" when it's merely a bit below freezing (Sorry, am Canadian) can legitimately be called fear-mongering. Some people are going to get a little chilly and learn a life lesson about wearing proper clothing, but minor cold is relatively easy to react to. Even if someone decides to go for a drive in the country with nothing but shorts on, help is readily at hand in most places if they have a breakdown. On the other hand, scaring people about natural disasters like hurricanes can and does save lives. Milton didn't turn out to be the storm of the century as some were saying, but it still killed three hundred people. How many more might have died if people hadn't taken it so seriously? Let's just be thankful that lawyers haven't found a way to sue weather forecasters for being incorrect, because then we'd have no weather forecasts.

gosub100 2y ago
I would wager that many of the deaths are from homeless people that don't exactly have a closet to store their cold-weather gear in. And when snow storms hit places that normally don't get them, it's a huge deal because people don't know how to drive in it. Even if it's not artic circle cold outside
- beloch 2y ago
  I'm not saying cold weather doesn't produce issues, especially for places unaccustomed to it. I'm saying the impact is on a different scale than from a natural disaster, so perhaps it's wise to reserve catastrophic language for potential catastrophes. If you use the same language for cold weather as you do for hurricanes, people might not take hurricanes seriously enough.
hluska 2y ago
There is a tremendous amount of misinformation in this. 1.) When meteorologists say it will be dangerous, it is either cold enough for exposed skin to freeze or very slippery. Both of those situations are dangerous. 2.)Help is not readily available in ‘the country’. I could drive you forty five minutes outside of my city and you will have no cell service. People die in their cars out in the country. If you’re not careful with cold, you’ve been trusting luck instead of foresight. Cold is very dangerous.

SoftTalker 2y ago

I'd settle for a reliable forcast for tomorrow.

standardUser 2y ago

Helene and Milton were severe storms that killed people (despite ample advanced warning) and caused historically significant amounts of damage. Are there other storms that people are being bombarded with dire warnings about that I don't hear about because I live in NY? Because as far as I can tell, the only two recent weather events to get substantial coverage were roughly as devastating as warned. The bigger problem seems to be politically-inspired idiots sending death threats to meteorologist because they'll believe every conspiracy theory they hear from their ultra-right news sources and elected officials: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/meteorologists-threats-conspiracy-theories-hurricanes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/meteorologists-threats...

eximius 2y ago

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

23B1 2y ago

Journalism is a storytelling business that is optimized for psychological impact, no more and no less honorable than writing a children's book or a screenplay. Scientists are after fact. Philosophers are after truth. The commentariat are after repeat customers. This isn't a dig on journalists or meteorologists btw, but let's drop the heroic pretense. Even Edward Murrow shoveled mostly slop.

thebeardisred 2y ago

What bugs me about this is that it's an armchair analysis from someone 11°+ north in latitude (Lake Placid is a five hour drive north of New York City. Additionally, I looked up the historic weather data. In a span of 3 weeks there was a temperature swing of over 25°C in Atlanta. Finally, the author completely and disingenuously ignores that the US south does not have snow removal equipment to the same degree. In emergencies that equipment has to get trucked down... Assuming it's not needed in the localities lending it.