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I think there was this report from IMF or something about middle income trap. It says once India reaches middle income level in next 10 yrs or so it will likely

by geodel 2y ago

I think there was this report from IMF or something about middle income trap. It says once India reaches middle income level in next 10 yrs or so it will likely to stay there for next 75 years. So to your point they can develop little further but not too much. Growth will be self-limiting very soon. Economic growth will be far more energy intensive then we had so far in last 3 decades. A sign of this we saw last year as thousands of A/Cs were exploding because they couldn't operate in extreme heat conditions in northern India.

alephnerd 2y ago
> middle income level Upper Middle Income (roughly where China is today). India is already middle income. Plus China is included in that WB list of future middle income trap members. > So to your point they can develop little further but not too much. Growth will be self-limiting very soon. That underestimates nominal capacity. India today has a similar dynamic to that China had in the 2000s, and within 15-20 years will slow down just like China has in the present. Furthermore, the financing situation has changed due to the banking stability and FDI reforms in 2016-18, which has helped attract Energy financing into India [0], especially from sovereign funds in the Gulf States and Singapore that missed out on a significant portion of China's boom in the 2000s. India's economy is basically China-15yrs because Deng Xiaoping's reforms to devolve economic planning to provinces in 1979-80 didn't happen in India until the 1993-95. [0] - https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Financing-India%E2%80%99s-2030-Renewables-Ambition_FINAL.pdf https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Financing...