4 ms·

This guy is 2656 and the world number 69. You might think, meh, so what who's heard of the world number 69 at, say, tennis. But if you are a serious chess playe

This guy is 2656 and the world number 69. You might think, meh, so what who's heard of the world number 69 at, say, tennis. But if you are a serious chess player you understand that is an astronomically high level that is completely out of reach for 99.9% of people even if you love the game and devote many years of effort to it. (No doubt the same sentiment would occur to a serious tennis player in the tennis analogy). I have two points really A) As a chess player and a programmer, I think many a programmer fancies themselves as being a rock star performer but if there was an equivalent of Elo ratings for programmers it would likely be a very sobering experience for almost everybody [I think I am a highly skilled programmer, but my chess rating is 1867]. And B) It is consequently a real personal tragedy for this guy that he has foolishly flushed his career and reputation at age 22. What a waste.

marcheradiuju 2y ago
For reference, chess skill has a function indicating likelihood to beat a player of another rank (I don't recall the ratios). This user's chess skill dwarfs mine (1400s), might be higher than anyone I've ever played with in person. I can stomp all my acquaintances easily, but this person might never lose a game to me, no matter how many we play. There's something deeply gratifying about the formalization of chess skill like this imo, it keeps everyone humble. It's good to meet other players, cheers. That said, I'm only surprised that such a high-ranking player was caught so easily with cheating. I've been expecting for many years that the problem of catching cheating in chess is complicated by motivated cheaters being necessarily intellectual, therefore hiding it well. We may never know our best cheaters, at least during their professional careers, and it's a little disheartening knowing even top100 players can overtly toss away their prospects this way. It would be a surprise for anyone this high to not be invested in chess in multiple financial avenues, so this really is like shooting yourself in the foot.
- billforsternz 2y ago
  Agreed. I've been taking the game seriously for 50 years, I'm recognised as a CM (Candidate Master) by FIDE the international chess federation. I devoted years of my life to writing my chess workbench Tarrasch https://triplehappy.com https://triplehappy.com. I've beaten an IM and FMs in FIDE rated classical events (I've played 3 GMs and fallen short each time - highlight was Australian GM Darryl Johanssen telling me in our post-mortem "at least you got to play one fantastic move"). Yet this guy at 22 has chess skill that dwarfs mine. An 800 Elo gap means his expectation is something like 99.9%.
tzs 2y ago
> It is consequently a real personal tragedy for this guy that he has foolishly flushed his career and reputation at age 22. What a waste. On the other hand, isn't 22 a couple years past the point were rapid improvement ends and you are on a long slow rise until peaking around your late 30s? I could see someone looking at where they are at 22, realizing that it will another 15 years so to reach a point where they can make a good living from full time playing chess and that it is quite possible their peak will not be high enough for that, and so start planning to switch to a career outside of chess. In that case maybe they decide to cheat to try to squeeze what they can out of chess before moving on.
- billforsternz 2y ago
  My rule of thumb is that anyone in the top 100 can make a very nice living from chess. Anyone in the top ~10 can get rich.
QuantumGood 2y ago
According to Chess.com's data from April 2023, a rating of 2200 already puts a player in the 99.95th percentile—a 2656 Elo rating would be over 99.99th
- billforsternz 2y ago
  A slightly different point than the one I was making - I am saying out of reach for 99.9% of people no matter how much effort they put in. Even if they devoted their lives to the task, worked 60 hours a week on chess etc.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]

marcheradiuju 2y ago

For reference, chess skill has a function indicating likelihood to beat a player of another rank (I don't recall the ratios). This user's chess skill dwarfs mine (1400s), might be higher than anyone I've ever played with in person. I can stomp all my acquaintances easily, but this person might never lose a game to me, no matter how many we play. There's something deeply gratifying about the formalization of chess skill like this imo, it keeps everyone humble. It's good to meet other players, cheers. That said, I'm only surprised that such a high-ranking player was caught so easily with cheating. I've been expecting for many years that the problem of catching cheating in chess is complicated by motivated cheaters being necessarily intellectual, therefore hiding it well. We may never know our best cheaters, at least during their professional careers, and it's a little disheartening knowing even top100 players can overtly toss away their prospects this way. It would be a surprise for anyone this high to not be invested in chess in multiple financial avenues, so this really is like shooting yourself in the foot.

billforsternz 2y ago
Agreed. I've been taking the game seriously for 50 years, I'm recognised as a CM (Candidate Master) by FIDE the international chess federation. I devoted years of my life to writing my chess workbench Tarrasch https://triplehappy.com https://triplehappy.com. I've beaten an IM and FMs in FIDE rated classical events (I've played 3 GMs and fallen short each time - highlight was Australian GM Darryl Johanssen telling me in our post-mortem "at least you got to play one fantastic move"). Yet this guy at 22 has chess skill that dwarfs mine. An 800 Elo gap means his expectation is something like 99.9%.

tzs 2y ago

> It is consequently a real personal tragedy for this guy that he has foolishly flushed his career and reputation at age 22. What a waste. On the other hand, isn't 22 a couple years past the point were rapid improvement ends and you are on a long slow rise until peaking around your late 30s? I could see someone looking at where they are at 22, realizing that it will another 15 years so to reach a point where they can make a good living from full time playing chess and that it is quite possible their peak will not be high enough for that, and so start planning to switch to a career outside of chess. In that case maybe they decide to cheat to try to squeeze what they can out of chess before moving on.

billforsternz 2y ago
My rule of thumb is that anyone in the top 100 can make a very nice living from chess. Anyone in the top ~10 can get rich.

QuantumGood 2y ago

According to Chess.com's data from April 2023, a rating of 2200 already puts a player in the 99.95th percentile—a 2656 Elo rating would be over 99.99th

billforsternz 2y ago
A slightly different point than the one I was making - I am saying out of reach for 99.9% of people no matter how much effort they put in. Even if they devoted their lives to the task, worked 60 hours a week on chess etc.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]