3 ms·

Everything old is new again. Had Sears gone back to focus on mail order instead of spending their waning years trying to save retail, they could have got Amazo

Everything old is new again. Had Sears gone back to focus on mail order instead of spending their waning years trying to save retail, they could have got Amazon's business before it was started. But instead they killed the catalog in 1993, one year before Amazon was founded.

paulcole 2y ago
> Had Sears gone back to focus on mail order instead of spending their waning years trying to save retail, they could have got Amazon's business before it was started I strongly disagree with this speculation. Amazon’s benefit wasn’t just being there first. It was being there first and being Amazon. Sears was fucked because they were 100+ years old and hadn’t innovated in decades and were entering a period that would be defined by innovation. They just didn’t have it in them. Sure maybe they stave off failure by a few more years and then maybe they get a series of increasingly lucky breaks afterwards and then they do keep Amazon from becoming Amazon. But it’s far far far far from a sure thing that would result from simply pivoting back to mail order.
- bombcar 2y ago
  The “sears could have done it” story is much better realized by Walmart doing it right now. Amazon better keep on their toes.
  - paulcole 2y ago
    Isn’t Walmart's e-commerce revenue like 20% of Amazon’s? Are they actually cutting into Amazons lead or is the market just bigger?
    - bombcar 2y ago
      Walmart's tiny for now - but their "in-store" is just massively huge. The key is they already have warehouses everywhere (the stores!) and they have a fleet of delivery people active and operating. Amazon's being attacked by Walmart on one side (same day in-store pickup and/or delivery of things you know) and Temu/Alibaba on the other. There's a reason they're sitting on AWS as a profit center.
      - paulcole 2y ago
        Isn’t Walmart's e-commerce revenue like 20% of Amazon’s? Are they actually cutting into Amazons lead or is the market just bigger?
        bombcar 2y ago
        They're cutting in, considering Amazon was already a huge online presence when walmart had nothing. Target, Best Buy, Home Depot are also champing at the bit, each in their own way.
        paulcole 2y ago
        Really? I looked and in 2020, Amazons lead was like $160b and in 2023 it was like $200b.
  - silisili 2y ago
    Agreed. I order more from Walmart than Amazon these days. Gets here faster, sometimes same day, and usually cheaper. I think they'd be further ahead if not for their branding and lack of advertising. Walmart, at least in my life experience, is equated with low class, cheap, junky. IMO they should've kept the Jet brand as their web/delivery presence.
- FrustratedMonky 2y ago
  You could say the same thing about Apple. Would Apple have turned around if Jobs hadn't come back? Apple was near bankruptcy, was on the way out. But, Jobs did come back, and now it looks pre-destined. Like some story book of inevitability. But was really not a sure thing at all. If the right leader had taken over Sears, who knows. Sears had the history and background to do what Amazon did. The Sears Catalog is still known as an Icon. If that had been parlayed into the Internet Sears Catalog, things could have been very different. Imagine a retro styled hip Sears Catalog online.
  - paulcole 2y ago
    > Imagine a retro styled hip Sears Catalog online. This sounds awful. > If the right leader had taken over Sears, who knows This my whole point. That yes if Sears gets the absolute best break imaginable (like Apple did), then yes they have a chance. The comment I was replying to said that all they did was not act which I think is wrong.
    - FrustratedMonky 2y ago
      "This sounds awful." Who knows what will become cool again. Hipsters pick some odd things.
      - paulcole 2y ago
        What you described is what a boomer thinks a hipster might pick as being cool again. That thought process is exactly what Sears was infected with and why they were 100% cooked.
        defrost 2y ago
        While that's a sick burn of wannabe septuagenarian style influencers, they're coming back hard, like pagers . . .
        FrustratedMonky 2y ago

paulcole 2y ago

> Had Sears gone back to focus on mail order instead of spending their waning years trying to save retail, they could have got Amazon's business before it was started I strongly disagree with this speculation. Amazon’s benefit wasn’t just being there first. It was being there first and being Amazon. Sears was fucked because they were 100+ years old and hadn’t innovated in decades and were entering a period that would be defined by innovation. They just didn’t have it in them. Sure maybe they stave off failure by a few more years and then maybe they get a series of increasingly lucky breaks afterwards and then they do keep Amazon from becoming Amazon. But it’s far far far far from a sure thing that would result from simply pivoting back to mail order.

bombcar 2y ago
The “sears could have done it” story is much better realized by Walmart doing it right now. Amazon better keep on their toes.
- paulcole 2y ago
  Isn’t Walmart's e-commerce revenue like 20% of Amazon’s? Are they actually cutting into Amazons lead or is the market just bigger?
  - bombcar 2y ago
    Walmart's tiny for now - but their "in-store" is just massively huge. The key is they already have warehouses everywhere (the stores!) and they have a fleet of delivery people active and operating. Amazon's being attacked by Walmart on one side (same day in-store pickup and/or delivery of things you know) and Temu/Alibaba on the other. There's a reason they're sitting on AWS as a profit center.
    - paulcole 2y ago
      Isn’t Walmart's e-commerce revenue like 20% of Amazon’s? Are they actually cutting into Amazons lead or is the market just bigger?
      - bombcar 2y ago
        They're cutting in, considering Amazon was already a huge online presence when walmart had nothing. Target, Best Buy, Home Depot are also champing at the bit, each in their own way.
        paulcole 2y ago
        Really? I looked and in 2020, Amazons lead was like $160b and in 2023 it was like $200b.
- silisili 2y ago
  Agreed. I order more from Walmart than Amazon these days. Gets here faster, sometimes same day, and usually cheaper. I think they'd be further ahead if not for their branding and lack of advertising. Walmart, at least in my life experience, is equated with low class, cheap, junky. IMO they should've kept the Jet brand as their web/delivery presence.
FrustratedMonky 2y ago
You could say the same thing about Apple. Would Apple have turned around if Jobs hadn't come back? Apple was near bankruptcy, was on the way out. But, Jobs did come back, and now it looks pre-destined. Like some story book of inevitability. But was really not a sure thing at all. If the right leader had taken over Sears, who knows. Sears had the history and background to do what Amazon did. The Sears Catalog is still known as an Icon. If that had been parlayed into the Internet Sears Catalog, things could have been very different. Imagine a retro styled hip Sears Catalog online.
- paulcole 2y ago
  > Imagine a retro styled hip Sears Catalog online. This sounds awful. > If the right leader had taken over Sears, who knows This my whole point. That yes if Sears gets the absolute best break imaginable (like Apple did), then yes they have a chance. The comment I was replying to said that all they did was not act which I think is wrong.
  - FrustratedMonky 2y ago
    "This sounds awful." Who knows what will become cool again. Hipsters pick some odd things.
    - paulcole 2y ago
      What you described is what a boomer thinks a hipster might pick as being cool again. That thought process is exactly what Sears was infected with and why they were 100% cooked.
      - defrost 2y ago
        While that's a sick burn of wannabe septuagenarian style influencers, they're coming back hard, like pagers . . .
        FrustratedMonky 2y ago