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Nuclear is still much more expensive than renewables in China, where there aren't too many "misguided greenies" setting policy. Environmentalists were successfu

Nuclear is still much more expensive than renewables in China, where there aren't too many "misguided greenies" setting policy. Environmentalists were successful in opposing nuclear construction because it was expensive and unprofitable, not the other way around. The faster people can internalize this lesson, the sooner we'll get to economically-viable nuclear power.

mbivert 2y ago
> Environmentalists were successful in opposing nuclear construction because it was expensive and unprofitable As far as Europe is concerned, there seems to have been various political move and lobbying to affect energy independence (e.g. France): economy is transformed energy, so by nuking (…) energy independence, you're suffocating countries. The military role of nuclear is furthermore crucial; civil & nuclear must be correlated. That's to say, giving up nuclear is not something a sane, well-driven country should do lightly, regardless of ideologies. It's a tricky topic; what I regularly hear from economists is that wind & solar are still far from being able to compete with nuclear. And because of the previous two points, people can't but frown upon "green" arguments, even if the underlying intentions are honest and well-intended. (China may not have misguided greenies, but it has a strong incentive to sell whatever it's offering).
- bobthepanda 2y ago
  If China had a super cheap nuclear design they would be very happy to export that the same way they export their other technologies like EVs, high speed trains, solar panels, batteries, etc. But it simply does not exist.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > If China had a super cheap nuclear design they would be very happy to export that China "plans to export nuclear power reactors in the future" [1]. It's early stages, but being done through Belt & Road [2]. [1] https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/how-china-has-become-the-worlds-fastest-expanding-nuclear-power-producer https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/how-china-has-become-the-world... [2] https://www.cipe.org/resources/chinas-nuclear-dragon-goes-abroad-exporting-nuclear-power-infrastructure-through-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ https://www.cipe.org/resources/chinas-nuclear-dragon-goes-ab...
    - bobthepanda 2y ago
      The first article refers to 2018 in the future tense, and the second article is three years old without a single announcement of a Belt and Road nuclear plant since then.
  - Moldoteck 2y ago
    china has a super cheap design called hualong and they plan to export it the way russia is exporting their designs. Another plan is finishing local adaptations of ap1000 that can be reselled without licensing problems
pfdietz 2y ago
This is why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear And 114 GW of coal [1]. Don't do nuclear, and that becomes 115 GW of coal. Nuclear and renewables aren't competing for market share. Everyone is putting down renewables as quickly as possible. But we need more power, so we fill the gap with one of gas, nuclear or coal. [1] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-...
  - golli 2y ago
    > > why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear > > And 114 GW of coal [1]. Don't do nuclear, and that becomes 115 GW of coal. Nuclear and renewables aren't competing for market share. That is true for China, since their overall energy demand is growing massively. But is that also true for other parts of the world like the US or EU? Because looking at the electricity production [1] this doesn't seem to be the case. So in those markets they would compete for replacing existing fossil power plants. I think we can expect some growth, but not on a level even close to China. [1] https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/world-electricity-production-statistics.html https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/world-electricity-...
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      We should see some increase in electricity consumption due to displacement of direct uses of fossil fuels. For example, use of heat pumps in place of natural gas furnaces, electric cars in place of IC engine vehicles. Add to that the ever popular AI and general data center consumption motivating this announcement (but I wonder how much of that is going to move to places with cheaper electricity.)
Moldoteck 2y ago
is it? New plants cost 3-3.5bn for a stable 1gw output. For renewables - much more needs to be built to provide same reliability or compensate with fossils

mbivert 2y ago

> Environmentalists were successful in opposing nuclear construction because it was expensive and unprofitable As far as Europe is concerned, there seems to have been various political move and lobbying to affect energy independence (e.g. France): economy is transformed energy, so by nuking (…) energy independence, you're suffocating countries. The military role of nuclear is furthermore crucial; civil & nuclear must be correlated. That's to say, giving up nuclear is not something a sane, well-driven country should do lightly, regardless of ideologies. It's a tricky topic; what I regularly hear from economists is that wind & solar are still far from being able to compete with nuclear. And because of the previous two points, people can't but frown upon "green" arguments, even if the underlying intentions are honest and well-intended. (China may not have misguided greenies, but it has a strong incentive to sell whatever it's offering).

bobthepanda 2y ago
If China had a super cheap nuclear design they would be very happy to export that the same way they export their other technologies like EVs, high speed trains, solar panels, batteries, etc. But it simply does not exist.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > If China had a super cheap nuclear design they would be very happy to export that China "plans to export nuclear power reactors in the future" [1]. It's early stages, but being done through Belt & Road [2]. [1] https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/how-china-has-become-the-worlds-fastest-expanding-nuclear-power-producer https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/how-china-has-become-the-world... [2] https://www.cipe.org/resources/chinas-nuclear-dragon-goes-abroad-exporting-nuclear-power-infrastructure-through-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ https://www.cipe.org/resources/chinas-nuclear-dragon-goes-ab...
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    The first article refers to 2018 in the future tense, and the second article is three years old without a single announcement of a Belt and Road nuclear plant since then.
- Moldoteck 2y ago
  china has a super cheap design called hualong and they plan to export it the way russia is exporting their designs. Another plan is finishing local adaptations of ap1000 that can be reselled without licensing problems

pfdietz 2y ago

This is why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear And 114 GW of coal [1]. Don't do nuclear, and that becomes 115 GW of coal. Nuclear and renewables aren't competing for market share. Everyone is putting down renewables as quickly as possible. But we need more power, so we fill the gap with one of gas, nuclear or coal. [1] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-...
- golli 2y ago
  > > why China installed 217 GW of solar last year, but only 1.2 GW of nuclear > > And 114 GW of coal [1]. Don't do nuclear, and that becomes 115 GW of coal. Nuclear and renewables aren't competing for market share. That is true for China, since their overall energy demand is growing massively. But is that also true for other parts of the world like the US or EU? Because looking at the electricity production [1] this doesn't seem to be the case. So in those markets they would compete for replacing existing fossil power plants. I think we can expect some growth, but not on a level even close to China. [1] https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/world-electricity-production-statistics.html https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/world-electricity-...
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    We should see some increase in electricity consumption due to displacement of direct uses of fossil fuels. For example, use of heat pumps in place of natural gas furnaces, electric cars in place of IC engine vehicles. Add to that the ever popular AI and general data center consumption motivating this announcement (but I wonder how much of that is going to move to places with cheaper electricity.)

Moldoteck 2y ago

is it? New plants cost 3-3.5bn for a stable 1gw output. For renewables - much more needs to be built to provide same reliability or compensate with fossils