3 ms·

frequently asserted but not true. https://x.com/DavidOsmond8/status/1843840160842350779 https://x.com/DavidOsmond8/status/1843840160842350779

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
Nobody claims renewables + battery doesn't work long term. (And not only work, but do so at rock-bottom costs.) The problem is the timeline. Time out building that additional infrastructure, including expected demand growth, and you always need more power in the interim. Particularly if you're planning on taking coal offline. If there is an arugment that we can ramp up battery production even faster than we are, the math changes. But we're already in a Herculean effort to mass produce more batteries faster.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  Battery manufacturing capacity is greatly underutilized in China. That was battery cell prices there fell by nearly 1/2 in the last year. There is tremendous room for expansion of production.
- iknowstuff 2y ago
  nuclear literally takes 10x the time to build as renewables+batteries. That's like the whole reason why it doesn't get built.
  - sien 2y ago
    During the Messmer plan the French installed 56 reactors in 15 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messmer_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messme... So you're saying that in 1.5 years the same thing can now be done with renewables and batteries? In 2027 it will easily have been done in a bunch of places ?
    - throw0101d 2y ago
      > During the Messmer plan the French installed 56 reactors in 15 years. Canada (mostly Ontario) built 25 reactors in 35 years: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Canada#Power_reactors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Canada#Power_... From the 1980s to the 2000s, it took Japan roughly 4-5 years between start of construction and commercial operation for a number of reactors: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_reactors#Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_rea...
      - adrianN 2y ago
        Start of construction is many years after start of the project though.
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      And now that's not realistic, given their track record on EPR.
ckdarby 2y ago
Based upon? Looked through the thread and it looks asserted but I don't see the counter not true point.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

Nobody claims renewables + battery doesn't work long term. (And not only work, but do so at rock-bottom costs.) The problem is the timeline. Time out building that additional infrastructure, including expected demand growth, and you always need more power in the interim. Particularly if you're planning on taking coal offline. If there is an arugment that we can ramp up battery production even faster than we are, the math changes. But we're already in a Herculean effort to mass produce more batteries faster.

pfdietz 2y ago
Battery manufacturing capacity is greatly underutilized in China. That was battery cell prices there fell by nearly 1/2 in the last year. There is tremendous room for expansion of production.
iknowstuff 2y ago
nuclear literally takes 10x the time to build as renewables+batteries. That's like the whole reason why it doesn't get built.
- sien 2y ago
  During the Messmer plan the French installed 56 reactors in 15 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messmer_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messme... So you're saying that in 1.5 years the same thing can now be done with renewables and batteries? In 2027 it will easily have been done in a bunch of places ?
  - throw0101d 2y ago
    > During the Messmer plan the French installed 56 reactors in 15 years. Canada (mostly Ontario) built 25 reactors in 35 years: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Canada#Power_reactors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Canada#Power_... From the 1980s to the 2000s, it took Japan roughly 4-5 years between start of construction and commercial operation for a number of reactors: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_reactors#Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_rea...
    - adrianN 2y ago
      Start of construction is many years after start of the project though.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    And now that's not realistic, given their track record on EPR.

ckdarby 2y ago

Based upon? Looked through the thread and it looks asserted but I don't see the counter not true point.