I hope you'd at least concede without needing bulletproof evidence that it's a more reasonable possibility than the second coming of Jesus. The best evidence I

I hope you'd at least concede without needing bulletproof evidence that it's a more reasonable possibility than the second coming of Jesus. The best evidence I can offer is the continued saturation of benchmarks, the continued effectiveness of scaling laws with respect to improvements in general reasoning, the massive improvements in algorithmic capabilities which lead to better use of existing models and inference-time compute, and the overall lack of fundamental blockers articulated that differentiate AI and human reasoning that can't be fixed via these developments. Every LLM of a given size is invariably at or near the state of the art with respect to all benchmarks available to test general reasoning. GPT-4 was the first model in the >1T parameter range, and every model that emerged around that level (Claude 3 Opus, Gemini Ultra) reached that level of performance in MMLU, MATH, etc. All subsequent improvements in models have been distillations and algorithmic improvements, synthetic data, etc. but so far a ~10T model has not been attempted, though it is likely around the scale for the upcoming GPT-5, Claude 4 and Gemini 2 models. Sources: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arPCiWYdqNCaE7AQv/superintelligent-ai-is-possible-in-the-2020s https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arPCiWYdqNCaE7AQv/superintel... https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/61d936fba2567df92a62dc70fe8d1fc9b381078b91445fd50d8dea228ced3685/nzajcospcpkcert7cuup https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto...