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I don't think the current systems we have are on the path to AGI, whatever that is. So it's hard to say it will be here soon. And when it does come I don't thin
by chrsw 2y ago
I don't think the current systems we have are on the path to AGI, whatever that is. So it's hard to say it will be here soon. And when it does come I don't think it will transform society overnight. It will probably take many decades.
- atleastoptimal 2y agoSo you're in the "slow timelines, slow takeoff" camp. By "current systems" do you mean LLM's based on transformers? What about them do you believe would make a sub-decade path to AGI infeasible?
- chrsw 2y agoBy "current systems" I mean any technology I'm aware of. LLMs and transformers are trained on the data we feed them. And they can only do a limited number of things with the data. In certain domains that's enough to be impressive but I'd hardly call that a general learning architecture like a human being or even like a fruit fly. Living systems are constantly learning, constantly updating, constantly adapting, even before cognition and consciousness as we know it evolved.