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But the timeline for Mars is slipping already. This very article says Starship is capable of doing the Mars mission as Musk described which is using the next 10

But the timeline for Mars is slipping already. This very article says Starship is capable of doing the Mars mission as Musk described which is using the next 10 launch windows to deliver 1 million tons to Mars. That would have involved launching 1,000 Starships last year. They have not done *1* launch with 100 tons of payload, the capacity of this rocket on paper. They will absolutely with this design get to Mars. But the realistic timeline is within the next 20 years, and only a few hundred tons. It will be a monumental achievement that will be immortalized for the rest of humanity. But that scenario is 1/1000th of what Musk describes. Starship is an incredible program but it is still rocket science not rocket fantasy. Please don’t think being realistic about getting 1,000 Starships to Mars in the next two years means I think Starship is a failure.

fallingknife 2y ago
If Elon Musk plans to land on mars in 2026 and he actually does it in 2046, you know what the history books will say: Elon Musk launched the first mission to Mars in 2046. Nobody cares about delays.
cameronh90 2y ago
Musk is frequently wrong with his timelines. That’s not a surprise to anyone. Even he has joked about his often unrealistic optimism with timeframes on multiple occasions. But I mean, most of us here are probably the same. Most CEOs I’ve worked with are quite poor at time estimates too. Come to think of it, I’ve never met a single human who is good at it. The problem is often unknown unknowns that you had no way to predict. I once had a project delayed by months due to a rare bug in the .NET CLR that just took a really long time to track down. I don’t know much about rocket science, but operating at the edge of known science and technology presumably has some difficult periods... Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
grecy 2y ago
So your whole point is that SpaceX are late on achieving the future. Yes. Everybody knows. With SpaceX we’re late getting there. With Everyone else the timeline is never. I’ll take late over never 10 times out of 10.

fallingknife 2y ago

If Elon Musk plans to land on mars in 2026 and he actually does it in 2046, you know what the history books will say: Elon Musk launched the first mission to Mars in 2046. Nobody cares about delays.

cameronh90 2y ago

Musk is frequently wrong with his timelines. That’s not a surprise to anyone. Even he has joked about his often unrealistic optimism with timeframes on multiple occasions. But I mean, most of us here are probably the same. Most CEOs I’ve worked with are quite poor at time estimates too. Come to think of it, I’ve never met a single human who is good at it. The problem is often unknown unknowns that you had no way to predict. I once had a project delayed by months due to a rare bug in the .NET CLR that just took a really long time to track down. I don’t know much about rocket science, but operating at the edge of known science and technology presumably has some difficult periods... Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

grecy 2y ago

So your whole point is that SpaceX are late on achieving the future. Yes. Everybody knows. With SpaceX we’re late getting there. With Everyone else the timeline is never. I’ll take late over never 10 times out of 10.