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> I will gladly eat crow but none of these capabilities that exist on paper have actually been demonstrated that are necessary to meet these goals. Literally e

by grecy 2y ago

> I will gladly eat crow but none of these capabilities that exist on paper have actually been demonstrated that are necessary to meet these goals. Literally every expert said that about landing the first stage of Falcon 9. Then they said it about reusing it more than 10 times. Then they said it about having good internet from a mega constellation of LEO stas. Then they said it about using stainless steel for starship. Then they said it about having a full-flow staged combustion cycle engine Then they said it about catching the booster with chopsticks. Now they're saying it about... Yes, Elon is wildly optimistic about timelines. I have to laugh at his quote "At SpaceX we make the impossible merely late". You can't deny SpaceX are absolutely doing what everyone said was impossible, and they're continuing to push forward. You'd have to be nuts to bet against them. UPDATE: It was only a couple of months ago the CEO of United Launch Alliance called out SpaceX for showing what he claimed was a "partially assembled engine" [1]. It was a fully-functional engine that test fired [2] Even the CEO of their biggest competitor, and ostensibly the second best rocket company on earth can not fathom what SpaceX are doing. [1] https://x.com/torybruno/status/1819819208827404616 https://x.com/torybruno/status/1819819208827404616 [2] https://x.com/Gwynne_Shotwell/status/1821674726885924923?t=vT35PMKOMiUfWg6hun2f_A https://x.com/Gwynne_Shotwell/status/1821674726885924923?t=v...

kemotep 2y ago
But the timeline for Mars is slipping already. This very article says Starship is capable of doing the Mars mission as Musk described which is using the next 10 launch windows to deliver 1 million tons to Mars. That would have involved launching 1,000 Starships last year. They have not done *1* launch with 100 tons of payload, the capacity of this rocket on paper. They will absolutely with this design get to Mars. But the realistic timeline is within the next 20 years, and only a few hundred tons. It will be a monumental achievement that will be immortalized for the rest of humanity. But that scenario is 1/1000th of what Musk describes. Starship is an incredible program but it is still rocket science not rocket fantasy. Please don’t think being realistic about getting 1,000 Starships to Mars in the next two years means I think Starship is a failure.
- fallingknife 2y ago
  If Elon Musk plans to land on mars in 2026 and he actually does it in 2046, you know what the history books will say: Elon Musk launched the first mission to Mars in 2046. Nobody cares about delays.
- cameronh90 2y ago
  Musk is frequently wrong with his timelines. That’s not a surprise to anyone. Even he has joked about his often unrealistic optimism with timeframes on multiple occasions. But I mean, most of us here are probably the same. Most CEOs I’ve worked with are quite poor at time estimates too. Come to think of it, I’ve never met a single human who is good at it. The problem is often unknown unknowns that you had no way to predict. I once had a project delayed by months due to a rare bug in the .NET CLR that just took a really long time to track down. I don’t know much about rocket science, but operating at the edge of known science and technology presumably has some difficult periods... Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
- grecy 2y ago
  So your whole point is that SpaceX are late on achieving the future. Yes. Everybody knows. With SpaceX we’re late getting there. With Everyone else the timeline is never. I’ll take late over never 10 times out of 10.
MichaelNolan 2y ago
> Yes, Elon is wildly optimistic about timelines. I have to laugh at his quote "At SpaceX we make the impossible merely late". I think an important part of this quote is “At SpaceX”. For my part, I generally assume that “SpaceX Elon” and “other venture Elon” are different people. He has certainly burned a lot of good will with his FSD predictions, and to a smaller degree with things like hyperloop, boring company, etc. SpaceX in contrast has always greatly exceeded expectations.

by grecy 2y ago

kemotep 2y ago

But the timeline for Mars is slipping already. This very article says Starship is capable of doing the Mars mission as Musk described which is using the next 10 launch windows to deliver 1 million tons to Mars. That would have involved launching 1,000 Starships last year. They have not done *1* launch with 100 tons of payload, the capacity of this rocket on paper. They will absolutely with this design get to Mars. But the realistic timeline is within the next 20 years, and only a few hundred tons. It will be a monumental achievement that will be immortalized for the rest of humanity. But that scenario is 1/1000th of what Musk describes. Starship is an incredible program but it is still rocket science not rocket fantasy. Please don’t think being realistic about getting 1,000 Starships to Mars in the next two years means I think Starship is a failure.

fallingknife 2y ago
If Elon Musk plans to land on mars in 2026 and he actually does it in 2046, you know what the history books will say: Elon Musk launched the first mission to Mars in 2046. Nobody cares about delays.
cameronh90 2y ago
Musk is frequently wrong with his timelines. That’s not a surprise to anyone. Even he has joked about his often unrealistic optimism with timeframes on multiple occasions. But I mean, most of us here are probably the same. Most CEOs I’ve worked with are quite poor at time estimates too. Come to think of it, I’ve never met a single human who is good at it. The problem is often unknown unknowns that you had no way to predict. I once had a project delayed by months due to a rare bug in the .NET CLR that just took a really long time to track down. I don’t know much about rocket science, but operating at the edge of known science and technology presumably has some difficult periods... Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
grecy 2y ago
So your whole point is that SpaceX are late on achieving the future. Yes. Everybody knows. With SpaceX we’re late getting there. With Everyone else the timeline is never. I’ll take late over never 10 times out of 10.

MichaelNolan 2y ago

> Yes, Elon is wildly optimistic about timelines. I have to laugh at his quote "At SpaceX we make the impossible merely late". I think an important part of this quote is “At SpaceX”. For my part, I generally assume that “SpaceX Elon” and “other venture Elon” are different people. He has certainly burned a lot of good will with his FSD predictions, and to a smaller degree with things like hyperloop, boring company, etc. SpaceX in contrast has always greatly exceeded expectations.