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I can't tell if this is a good thing. It seems like maybe a good thing that you can shut off plants that historically couldn't be shut off. But it seems like a

I can't tell if this is a good thing. It seems like maybe a good thing that you can shut off plants that historically couldn't be shut off. But it seems like a bad thing since it means these plants will likely stay in service longer. Is there a tipping point in the foreseeable future where these plants are unprofitable regardless of whether they run only part time?

strken 2y ago
It sounds like it's a mixed bag. It'll be quite difficult to transition to renewables before storage projects like Snowy Hydro 2.0 are complete, and an increased service life really just means an increased service life before we need to pay for an expensive infrastructure project the cost of which companies will try to recoup, so a longer lifespan might actually cause the plants to shut down sooner.
pabs3 2y ago
Probably once there enough batteries in service to soak up enough negative-priced rooftop solar power produced during the day to meet the overnight demand, baseload coal/gas will be less needed or no longer needed.
- h0l0cube 2y ago
  Correct. It will take around 10-20 years for this happen at current scaling of grid storage. In the meantime it doesn't make sense to scale up new gas, coal, or nuclear, as they won't have a decent ROI over their lifespan.
  - pabs3 2y ago
    At least in Australia, the oversupply of rooftop solar is already getting to be enough of a problem that its a signal to investors that getting into grid scale batteries could be profitable, and to home owners that house scale batteries are a good idea.
    - h0l0cube 2y ago
      Sodium-ion battery packs are starting to enter the market, and are already quite cheap. I think within a couple of years the economics will be difficult to resist.
    - defrost 2y ago
      > and to home owners that house scale batteries are a good idea. There's a middle ground to exploit for business that I've seen few (although some) examples of in Australia - "neighbourhood" batteries that cover 200 homes or so. Good for small towns, developments, suburbs, etc - about $1 million (AUD) as I recall, decent economics - work with grid provider to soak charge container sized battery from surrounding solar, feedback on demand, etc.
- firecall 2y ago
  To encourage this, here in South Australia, households can get free power between 11am and 2pm, to charge their EVs. We also charge our home batteries and run other things like the dishwasher, washing machine and so on... It's actually a bit of a thing, where you can be out and the 11am alarms on peoples phones will start going off!
  - BLKNSLVR 2y ago
    I haven't come across this. Our power company has cheaper 'shoulder' rates between 10am and 3pm, during which I schedule more things to be 'on', but haven't heard about a free power time range. I'm with AGL, and don't tend to shop around (because hassle), but this might inspire a review.
    - firecall 2y ago
      If you own an EV and have a Smart Meter, you can get these rates with OVO!
- threeseed 2y ago
  Also need to factor in the possibility of grid connectivity. If there is ever a Western to Eastern Australia connector that would have a big impact on excess capacity given the 3 hour time zone difference and just how warm it gets there.

strken 2y ago

It sounds like it's a mixed bag. It'll be quite difficult to transition to renewables before storage projects like Snowy Hydro 2.0 are complete, and an increased service life really just means an increased service life before we need to pay for an expensive infrastructure project the cost of which companies will try to recoup, so a longer lifespan might actually cause the plants to shut down sooner.

pabs3 2y ago

Probably once there enough batteries in service to soak up enough negative-priced rooftop solar power produced during the day to meet the overnight demand, baseload coal/gas will be less needed or no longer needed.

h0l0cube 2y ago
Correct. It will take around 10-20 years for this happen at current scaling of grid storage. In the meantime it doesn't make sense to scale up new gas, coal, or nuclear, as they won't have a decent ROI over their lifespan.
- pabs3 2y ago
  At least in Australia, the oversupply of rooftop solar is already getting to be enough of a problem that its a signal to investors that getting into grid scale batteries could be profitable, and to home owners that house scale batteries are a good idea.
  - h0l0cube 2y ago
    Sodium-ion battery packs are starting to enter the market, and are already quite cheap. I think within a couple of years the economics will be difficult to resist.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > and to home owners that house scale batteries are a good idea. There's a middle ground to exploit for business that I've seen few (although some) examples of in Australia - "neighbourhood" batteries that cover 200 homes or so. Good for small towns, developments, suburbs, etc - about $1 million (AUD) as I recall, decent economics - work with grid provider to soak charge container sized battery from surrounding solar, feedback on demand, etc.
firecall 2y ago
To encourage this, here in South Australia, households can get free power between 11am and 2pm, to charge their EVs. We also charge our home batteries and run other things like the dishwasher, washing machine and so on... It's actually a bit of a thing, where you can be out and the 11am alarms on peoples phones will start going off!
- BLKNSLVR 2y ago
  I haven't come across this. Our power company has cheaper 'shoulder' rates between 10am and 3pm, during which I schedule more things to be 'on', but haven't heard about a free power time range. I'm with AGL, and don't tend to shop around (because hassle), but this might inspire a review.
  - firecall 2y ago
    If you own an EV and have a Smart Meter, you can get these rates with OVO!
threeseed 2y ago
Also need to factor in the possibility of grid connectivity. If there is ever a Western to Eastern Australia connector that would have a big impact on excess capacity given the 3 hour time zone difference and just how warm it gets there.