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> it just doesn't seem likely It is likely conditional on the price of compute dropping the way it has been. If you can basically simulate a human brain on a
by Elucalidavah 2y ago
> it just doesn't seem likely
It is likely conditional on the price of compute dropping the way it has been.
If you can basically simulate a human brain on a $1000 machine, you don't really need to employ any AI researchers.
Of course, there has been some fear that the current models are a year away from FOOMing, but that does seem to be just the hype talking.
- threeseed 2y agoIf you can simulate a human brain and it required a $100b machine you would still get funding in a weekend. Because you could easily find ways to print money e.g. curing types of cancers or inventing a better Ozempic. But the fact is that there is no path to simulating a human brain.
- llamaimperative 2y agoThere is no path to it? That's a bold claim. Are brains imbued with special brain-magic that makes them more than, at rock bottom, a bunch of bog-standard chemical and electrical and thermal reactions? It seems very obviously fundamentally solvable, though I agree it is nowhere in the near future.
- bob1029 2y ago> Are brains imbued with special brain-magic that makes them more than, at rock bottom, a bunch of bog-standard chemical and electrical and thermal reactions? Some have made this argument (quantum effects, external fields, etc.). If any of these are proven to be true then we are looking at a completely different roadmap.
- llamaimperative 2y agoUh yeah, but we have no evidence for any of them (aside from quantum effects, which are "engineerable" to the extent they exist in brains anyway).
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- threeseed 2y ago> "engineerable" to the extent they exist in brains anyway Can you please enlighten us then since you clearly know to what extent quantum effects exist in the brain.
- llamaimperative 2y agoI’m saying to whatever extent they occur, they are just quantum interactions. There’s a path to reproducing them with engineering. It’s odd to say “reproduce quantum interactions” but remember to the extent they exist in the brain, they also behave as finicky/noisy quantum interactions. They’re not special brain quantum things.
- aithrowawaycomm 2y agoThis seems like a misreading - there's also no real path to P-NP or to disentangling the true chemical origins of life. OP didn't say it was impossible. The problem is we don't know very much about intelligence in animals generally, and even less about intelligence in humans. In particular, we know far less about intelligence than we do computational complexity or early forms of life.
- CooCooCaCha 2y agoThose seem like silly analogies. There are billions of brains on the planet, humans can grow them inside themselves (pregnancy). Don’t get me wrong, it’s a hard problem, they just seem like different classes of problems. I could see P=NP being impossible to prove but I find it hard to believe intelligence is impossible to figure out. Heck if you said it’d take us 100 years I would still think that’s a bit much.
- RandomLensman 2y agoWe have not even figured out single cell organisms, let alone slightly more complex organisms - why would intelligence be such an easy target?
- CooCooCaCha 2y agoI didn’t say easy.
- RandomLensman 2y agoYes, sorry, but it still could be impossibly hard for a long time. A lot of things happen in nature all the time we cannot do and have no (practical) path to doing them.
- threeseed 2y ago> Don’t get me wrong, it’s a hard problem, they just seem like different classes of problems Time travel. Teleportation through quantum entanglement. Intergalactic travel through wormholes. And don't get me wrong they are hard. But just another class of problems. Right ?
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- mrandish 2y ago> If you can basically simulate a human brain Based on the evidence I've seen to date, doing this part at the scale of human intelligence (regardless of cost) is highly unlikely to be possible for at least decades. (a note to clarify: the goal "simulate a human brain" is substantially harder than other goals usually discussed around AI, like "exceed domain expert human ability on tests measuring problem solving in certain domain(s).)