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I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars. Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers
by kristopolous 2y ago
I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars.
Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen.
You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chemistries are way more feasible. Everything points to a car price crash in the next decade or so. There's already sub-$5k models in China.
This will drop even lower when things like inductive road charging or other ways of passive refueling while in use (such as solar). Then you can tear even more out.
Imagine office parking lots where inductive charges were put in every parking spot as they laid the concrete being an expected, normal thing. No cables, no plugging.
Most people buy used cars today. In the future (10-20 years), most people will have these: frequently passive charging cheap vehicles using non expensive commodity parts.
- standeven 2y agoYes, about 2000 moving parts in a combustion engine compared to 20 in an electric motor. The only reason ICE cars are comparable in price is the 100 years of supply chain competition. EVs will win, but gas and diesel will persist for a long time in niches (enthusiasts, long-haul towing).
- kristopolous 2y agoMore rural places without electrification are the big long term use until renewable tech becomes better and significantly cheaper. In the future there will be off-grid unmanned free standing windmill or solar installations with a car charger hooked up to it. People will put such public chargers on their vacant land, say in the desert, for passive income, profit sharing with the installer. Their storage capacity, price and availability will be broadcast by cellular and be part of the realtime routing decision of the vehicle who will be able to reserve a time slot. Whenever such free standing charging station businesses becomes viable, that's when gasolines cars will be in their final decline. Might be 40 years, might be 10.
- jauntywundrkind 2y agoSmall perk of the iron-air battery (such as the largest battery in the world, being built in Maine, https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/long-duration-energy-storage/form-energy-set-to-build-worlds-biggest-battery-in-maine https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/long-duration-energy-st... ), is that it's also bulky & heavy, which is harder to steal! Other future imagining: a bunch of wrecked or old EV's being used for their battery capacity, buffering power from solar. Charge station of old cars holding juice for new ones.
- kristopolous 2y agoI'm sure there's going to be battery "rejuvenation" plants where they reset the chemistry on old batteries and refurbish them as new. When we're talking batteries that cost in the thousands, it starts to make sense
- MrHamburger 2y agoBut you can replace any of those 2000 moving parts with same one from eBay. You can either make your own if you know how. You can't change DRM locked part unless it is a new one and installed by approved technician using approved software for installation. Have you been naughty boy? No parts for you. This will work against all new cars in general.
- kristopolous 2y agoCompanies not respecting consumer rights isn't an inherent property of having an electric drivetrain. That's a right to repair argument, which is a different issue. There will likely be consumer protection laws and maybe even an "Open Car" project in the same way there's open hardware today. Are you implying a covetous car manufacturer won't be as protective with their gasoline vehicle line?
- MrHamburger 2y ago> Companies not respecting consumer rights isn't an inherent property of having an electric drivetrain. But it is so much easier. How car will tell that mechanical part has been changed? It can't.
- kristopolous 2y agoOk name an EV part you can be a DRM asshole with and tell me the mechanism by which you're enforcing the DRM and I'll bet it's equally enforceable with a similar mechanism on the gas vehicle.
- MrHamburger 2y agoBattery pack being DRM locked, while gas tank can't be.
- ssl-3 2y agoGas tank can be behind DRM, just as a battery can be. They're both naturally rather simple affairs: In their most primitive forms, a fuel tank is just a container that holds fuel, and a battery is just a collection of cells. But nothing at all prevents either thing from being rather more complex than that with the inclusion of necessary electronics that are DRM-locked.
- manmal 2y agoAre you saying a new EV will ever be cost competitive with a used gas car? If so, I disagree, unless heavy penalties are imposed on using an ICE.
- kristopolous 2y agoThere's already sub $10,000 conventional form factor EVs such as https://electrek.co/2024/03/06/byd-launches-cheaper-seagull-ev-9700-price/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/06/byd-launches-cheaper-seagull-... And then there's the immensely popular $4,000 Wuling Hongguang Mini EV https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV Meanwhile the average used car in the USA is $25,000 https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/when-to-buy-a-used-car-a6584238157/ https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/when-to-bu... So this is already a reality, we're just living in the time of the disruptive arbitrage interregnum.
- itsoktocry 2y agoYes because those have features we want in cars. Do you think the engine is what makes a car expensive? Building a $10k ICE car wouldn't be difficult.
- manmal 2y agoA used Dacia ICE is quasi unbeatable, you just can’t compare apples with oranges.
- kristopolous 2y agoThis isn't apples and oranges. The point of most cars being bought used is most cars are almost purely functional. If the math works out that electric is financially superior, it will come out ahead for those use cases. That's why electric car adoption is an s curve
- itsoktocry 2y ago>I've been calling this shot for years You and literally millions of people. It was obvious to anyne paying attention. What was ludicrous, then as now, were the people saying Tesla was going to bankrupt every car company. Instead, if it wasn't for tariffs, the Chinese manufacturers would be eating everyone's lunch.
- kristopolous 2y agoAmerican car manufacturers have fallen greatly after the Jack Welshification of the industry over the past 50 years. There was an intentional hollowing out of the US industrial base because pillaging and gutting for profit made stock go up faster. Now we sit on top of wrecked husks: GE, RCA, GM, Motorola. It was all intentionally dismantled and sold off. The problem isn't Tesla or electric cars, it's the conservative orthodox economists and their political lackeys that looted the industrial base in order to manufacture stock bubbles and claim it as progress And it will never be addressed until people stop claiming drag queens and bathroom signs have somehow swindled their wealth.
- etrautmann 2y agoInductive road charging is pretty hard to imagine being feasible. The efficiency of inductive charging at a standoff distance while moving at high speed will be abysmal. About as hard to conceive of as UBeam working out.
- kristopolous 2y agoYou should do an Internet search for it. I haven't done the engineering on the numbers but it's already happening