6 ms·

I hope SpaceX does as you say and starts sending a lot of probes, but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. There isn't really a strong business case for

by elihu 2y ago

I hope SpaceX does as you say and starts sending a lot of probes, but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. There isn't really a strong business case for scattering probes around the solar system. Starlink makes money. Selling launch capabilities to NASA makes money. Doing basic science? Establishing a Mars colony? Those sound more like the kind of thing that isn't going to happen unless Elon insists they do it, and it seems like maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term.

pfdietz 2y ago
> but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. It will depend on the level of competition in the launch market. If there's another reusable launcher (Blue Origin, say) then SpaceX will be constrained to not mark up the price too much and prices will be closer to costs, and anyone will be able to benefit from the cost reduction that allows large projects like this.
randallsquared 2y ago
> maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term. I think he's been pretty transparent that his recent interest in politics is downstream of his belief that Tesla and SpaceX will (continue to) be constrained by political action by one side more than the other.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  And by transphobia.
- idiotsecant 2y ago
  I think its entirely possible that he's an old man settling into a 'shakes fist at clouds' mindset and justifying supporting it by telling himself its the right business move. In reality I think he's a narcissist who is getting addicted to the limelight and this is just another stunt to get people to talk about him. I don't think its a business decision.
foobarian 2y ago
What happened to asteroid mining? I wonder if positive ID of a solid gold/platinum rock would spur more missions that way. The issue is it's not easy to get that material back down.
- BirAdam 2y ago
  Even silver, palladium, or cobalt in significant quantities could be sufficient motivation if the craft to harness the rock is cheap enough to make, launch, and operate. SpaceX is just the kind of company that would be able to do such a thing were anyone to do it. I bring up these other metals just to point out that while Gold or Platinum is what we always think of, industrial metals would also work to motivate.
- chucksmash 2y ago
  Back before there were so many hecto-billionaires (fifteen now, according to Forbes), I remember seeing a throwaway quote somewhere to the effect that the first trillionaire would be the first person to economically mine asteroids. It made me wonder, because it seems like even if someone had easy access to $100 trillion worth of platinum, they would no longer have $100 trillion worth of platinum. How much can you benefit from scarcity when you are also obliterating it? It's also mildly entertaining to consider that while the quote I mentioned was intended to express the idea that asteroid mining would make someone a trillionaire, it might have been prophetic yet gotten things exactly backwards. With Bezos and Musk both having space programs, it seems plausible that compound interest could bring us to a future where the first trillionaire becomes the first asteroid miner instead of the other way around.
  - pavel_lishin 2y ago
    > How much can you benefit from scarcity when you are also obliterating it? The same way that DeBeers did. Plus, you could also buy up the manufacturers that actually use this. Platinum price drops, but you're also benefitting from getting it at-cost as you literally drop-ship it to your factory producing catalytic converters and microchips.

by elihu 2y ago

pfdietz 2y ago

> but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. It will depend on the level of competition in the launch market. If there's another reusable launcher (Blue Origin, say) then SpaceX will be constrained to not mark up the price too much and prices will be closer to costs, and anyone will be able to benefit from the cost reduction that allows large projects like this.

randallsquared 2y ago

> maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term. I think he's been pretty transparent that his recent interest in politics is downstream of his belief that Tesla and SpaceX will (continue to) be constrained by political action by one side more than the other.

pfdietz 2y ago
And by transphobia.
idiotsecant 2y ago
I think its entirely possible that he's an old man settling into a 'shakes fist at clouds' mindset and justifying supporting it by telling himself its the right business move. In reality I think he's a narcissist who is getting addicted to the limelight and this is just another stunt to get people to talk about him. I don't think its a business decision.

foobarian 2y ago

What happened to asteroid mining? I wonder if positive ID of a solid gold/platinum rock would spur more missions that way. The issue is it's not easy to get that material back down.

BirAdam 2y ago
Even silver, palladium, or cobalt in significant quantities could be sufficient motivation if the craft to harness the rock is cheap enough to make, launch, and operate. SpaceX is just the kind of company that would be able to do such a thing were anyone to do it. I bring up these other metals just to point out that while Gold or Platinum is what we always think of, industrial metals would also work to motivate.
chucksmash 2y ago
Back before there were so many hecto-billionaires (fifteen now, according to Forbes), I remember seeing a throwaway quote somewhere to the effect that the first trillionaire would be the first person to economically mine asteroids. It made me wonder, because it seems like even if someone had easy access to $100 trillion worth of platinum, they would no longer have $100 trillion worth of platinum. How much can you benefit from scarcity when you are also obliterating it? It's also mildly entertaining to consider that while the quote I mentioned was intended to express the idea that asteroid mining would make someone a trillionaire, it might have been prophetic yet gotten things exactly backwards. With Bezos and Musk both having space programs, it seems plausible that compound interest could bring us to a future where the first trillionaire becomes the first asteroid miner instead of the other way around.
- pavel_lishin 2y ago
  > How much can you benefit from scarcity when you are also obliterating it? The same way that DeBeers did. Plus, you could also buy up the manufacturers that actually use this. Platinum price drops, but you're also benefitting from getting it at-cost as you literally drop-ship it to your factory producing catalytic converters and microchips.