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Thanks for the heads-up. I just increased my short position in NVDA a tiny bit. The peak should be near. (This is not financial advice.)

alecco 2y ago
"Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent"
- bjornsing 2y ago
  I know. :) That’s why I keep it small. And I’m long semiconductors as a whole.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
aurareturn 2y ago
I would not bet against Nvidia right now. Yes, H100s are getting cheaper, but I can see the cheap price drawing in a wave of fine tuning interest, which will result in more GPU demand for both training and inferencing. Then there’s the ever need for bigger data centers for foundational model training, which the article described as completely separate from public auction prices of H100s. I don’t think the world has more GPU compute than it knows what to do with. I think it’s still the opposite. We don’t have enough compute. And when we do, it will simply drive a cycle of more GPU compute demand.
- bjornsing 2y ago
  I don’t think I’m betting against Nvidia. I’m betting against Nvidia being worth 3.3 trillion.
  - Der_Einzige 2y ago
    Still a bad bet. Their moat is deeper now than it was in 2022. The engineers you need to poach are all paid well over 1+ million USD per year now. The number of people capable of writing quality CUDA code to optimize transformer language models world-wide is likely less than 10000, and I'm being very generous. Nvidia holds a significant portion of that group, and some of the others you'll never find in the market at all since they hide behind discord profile pictures and mental illness.
    - bjornsing 2y ago
      Only reason that is hard is that CUDA is general purpose. You don’t need a graphics + GPGPU platform to run transformers. Nvidia is eating its own moat.
KaoruAoiShiho 2y ago
I just went balls deep into long positions including calls and 2x etfs.
- bjornsing 2y ago
  Interesting… What’s your thesis?

alecco 2y ago

"Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent"

bjornsing 2y ago
I know. :) That’s why I keep it small. And I’m long semiconductors as a whole.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

aurareturn 2y ago

I would not bet against Nvidia right now. Yes, H100s are getting cheaper, but I can see the cheap price drawing in a wave of fine tuning interest, which will result in more GPU demand for both training and inferencing. Then there’s the ever need for bigger data centers for foundational model training, which the article described as completely separate from public auction prices of H100s. I don’t think the world has more GPU compute than it knows what to do with. I think it’s still the opposite. We don’t have enough compute. And when we do, it will simply drive a cycle of more GPU compute demand.

bjornsing 2y ago
I don’t think I’m betting against Nvidia. I’m betting against Nvidia being worth 3.3 trillion.
- Der_Einzige 2y ago
  Still a bad bet. Their moat is deeper now than it was in 2022. The engineers you need to poach are all paid well over 1+ million USD per year now. The number of people capable of writing quality CUDA code to optimize transformer language models world-wide is likely less than 10000, and I'm being very generous. Nvidia holds a significant portion of that group, and some of the others you'll never find in the market at all since they hide behind discord profile pictures and mental illness.
  - bjornsing 2y ago
    Only reason that is hard is that CUDA is general purpose. You don’t need a graphics + GPGPU platform to run transformers. Nvidia is eating its own moat.

KaoruAoiShiho 2y ago

I just went balls deep into long positions including calls and 2x etfs.

bjornsing 2y ago
Interesting… What’s your thesis?