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There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who th

There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering. Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

benterix 2y ago
> Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao It's not "talk shit about Tesla's engineers", it's just a very hard problem to solve. It's easy to get it "most of the time" but extremely difficult to finish it. It's obvious it will take decades, not years to get us there. Whereas Musk insists he will solve it "this year", every year from 2014.
trissi1996 2y ago
Even if you'd be right about the 90%, I highly doubt they'll be first. How long did it take to get to that 90% ? AFAIK they first mentioned FSD ~2016(Self-driving itself even earlier). As the last 20% of work are often 80% of the effort we can estimate that those remaining 10 % take ~ 40% of the time. They've been at it for ~8 years , which gives an expected release of ~ 2029. We'll see what Waymo and other competition has until then.
wasteduniverse 2y ago
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tliltocatl 2y ago
There are 90% and then there are 90% more.
- eesmith 2y ago
  A.K.A the Rule of Credibility: "The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule Followed by Hofstadter's law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
pelorat 2y ago
That 90% is about as good as a teenager taking his first practice drive with a parent (meaning an extreme road hazard).
- sshine 2y ago
  > about as good as a teenager a suicidal teenager
bellgrove 2y ago
I feel like there’s some software adage about the last 10% being the hardest. It certainly holds true from my experience - even if they are 90% of the way there, it’s not a linear path to 100%.
- tocs3 2y ago
  90% done, 90% left to go.
- darepublic 2y ago
  so the 90% is really meaningless in that case.. it's what we judge to be 90% which is erroneous.
deleted 2y ago
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kevinventullo 2y ago
I live in Los Angeles, and Tesla will not get here first because Waymo has already arrived.

benterix 2y ago

> Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao It's not "talk shit about Tesla's engineers", it's just a very hard problem to solve. It's easy to get it "most of the time" but extremely difficult to finish it. It's obvious it will take decades, not years to get us there. Whereas Musk insists he will solve it "this year", every year from 2014.

trissi1996 2y ago

Even if you'd be right about the 90%, I highly doubt they'll be first. How long did it take to get to that 90% ? AFAIK they first mentioned FSD ~2016(Self-driving itself even earlier). As the last 20% of work are often 80% of the effort we can estimate that those remaining 10 % take ~ 40% of the time. They've been at it for ~8 years , which gives an expected release of ~ 2029. We'll see what Waymo and other competition has until then.

wasteduniverse 2y ago

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tliltocatl 2y ago

There are 90% and then there are 90% more.

eesmith 2y ago
A.K.A the Rule of Credibility: "The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule Followed by Hofstadter's law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law

pelorat 2y ago

That 90% is about as good as a teenager taking his first practice drive with a parent (meaning an extreme road hazard).

sshine 2y ago
> about as good as a teenager a suicidal teenager

bellgrove 2y ago

I feel like there’s some software adage about the last 10% being the hardest. It certainly holds true from my experience - even if they are 90% of the way there, it’s not a linear path to 100%.

tocs3 2y ago
90% done, 90% left to go.
darepublic 2y ago
so the 90% is really meaningless in that case.. it's what we judge to be 90% which is erroneous.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

kevinventullo 2y ago

I live in Los Angeles, and Tesla will not get here first because Waymo has already arrived.