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Elon has almost no credibility left for what he says. It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a
by wg0 2y ago
Elon has almost no credibility left for what he says.
It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop.
Tesla has nothing new to offer and competition is catching up, EV adoption slowing down and such.
If I had, I would gradually drop Tesla stock because it's going to go downhill if not rock bottom from here.
- acchow 2y ago> It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop. They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. The bar was staffed by Optimus robots. “Basically a website”?
- benterix 2y ago> They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. To quote a participant[0]: > After over 10 years of Full Self-Driving development, @Tesla is limited to a 20-30 acre geofenced 5mph ride on a preprogrammed, premapped and heavily rehearsed route with no traffic and no pedestrians. [0] https://x.com/realdanodowd/status/1844605093368512799 https://x.com/realdanodowd/status/1844605093368512799
- valianteffort 2y agoThere are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering. Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao
- benterix 2y ago> Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao It's not "talk shit about Tesla's engineers", it's just a very hard problem to solve. It's easy to get it "most of the time" but extremely difficult to finish it. It's obvious it will take decades, not years to get us there. Whereas Musk insists he will solve it "this year", every year from 2014.
- trissi1996 2y agoEven if you'd be right about the 90%, I highly doubt they'll be first. How long did it take to get to that 90% ? AFAIK they first mentioned FSD ~2016(Self-driving itself even earlier). As the last 20% of work are often 80% of the effort we can estimate that those remaining 10 % take ~ 40% of the time. They've been at it for ~8 years , which gives an expected release of ~ 2029. We'll see what Waymo and other competition has until then.
- wasteduniverse 2y ago[dead]
- tliltocatl 2y agoThere are 90% and then there are 90% more.
- eesmith 2y agoA.K.A the Rule of Credibility: "The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule Followed by Hofstadter's law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
- pelorat 2y agoThat 90% is about as good as a teenager taking his first practice drive with a parent (meaning an extreme road hazard).
- sshine 2y ago> about as good as a teenager a suicidal teenager
- bellgrove 2y agoI feel like there’s some software adage about the last 10% being the hardest. It certainly holds true from my experience - even if they are 90% of the way there, it’s not a linear path to 100%.
- tocs3 2y ago90% done, 90% left to go.
- darepublic 2y agoso the 90% is really meaningless in that case.. it's what we judge to be 90% which is erroneous.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- kevinventullo 2y agoI live in Los Angeles, and Tesla will not get here first because Waymo has already arrived.
- twobitshifter 2y agoI saw pedestrians walking in front of the cars in the live stream. The rest is true though. It reminded me of taking the classic car ride around an amusement park where the cars all follow each other on a track.
- mrich 2y agoTesla at a forward P/E of 80 is massively overvalued as a car company. You can get Mercedes or BMW at a P/E of 6, with a 9% yield. Sure, the EV market is still growing, but Tesla is not the only player. All brands now have EVs, there are both cheaper and more luxurious Chinese EVs, that's some massive competition. The only reasons Tesla could be valued differently are FSD and Robotics, which Musk and Tesla-friendly analysts are heavily pushing. Since Musk has made massive loans against his Tesla stake you can expect that he will keep highlighting those narratives as well. A revaluation of the stock to sane levels would certainly cause him some financial difficulties.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- forgot-im-old 2y ago[flagged]
- bravetraveler 2y agoAnyone with eyes can see him cozying up to public funding/Uncle Sam
- red-iron-pine 2y agodebatable given how much he's been cozying up to the Russians and Saudis betcha in 10 years time we'll learn about all of the ITAR violations and other shady behavior
- bravetraveler 2y agoYoung money comes from old money, yes
- 2y ago
- lowkey 2y ago- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to a great degree, restore free speech on social media even if it is messy and imperfect at times - I believe that innovation is hard and just because he boldly claims he is going to Mars or make cars drive themselves - and hasn’t done it yet, is no reason to discount the possibility that he might actually pull it off one day
- specialist 2y agoYa, 3.5 out of 5 ain't bad.
- forgot-im-old 2y ago[flagged]
- ben_w 2y agoNobody else did, though. That's the reason he was able to get this rich with SpaceX and not stall sooner — most of the other space companies were (and in the west, still are) busy scratching backs rather than developing successful products.
- horns4lyfe 2y agoYou honestly believe that DARPA would have given us the Tesla model Y?
- fragmede 2y agoIt's possible that Tesla, which Musk didn't found, would have given us an EV by another name. Rivan also got us an electric truck before the cybertruck came out. Fisker's not doing so well though.
- horns4lyfe 2y agoUS competition with Tesla isn’t even close and the only way anyone has able to get a functional charging network up and running was to piggyback off of Tesla. I know the Trump stuff is annoying, but there’s way too much criticism of Tesla out there that is our political emotion.
- ryandvm 2y agoTrump is Tesla's only hope. Elon knows Trump is a transactional person and as long as he supports Trump, he can get the necessary governmental treatment his companies need to survive (tax credits, Chinese EV tariffs, some sort of asinine Mars mission).
- mensetmanusman 2y agoEV tariffs are going to happen throughout the entire west with or without Trump. Western governments have discovered the Chinese plan to decimate western manufacturing by subsidizing it at over 10 X the rate required and seen in the west. Vehicles matter because they are a means for war machine production.
- lokar 2y agoHe needs more than that. Both Mercedes and BMW are eating into high end Tesla sales.
- mensetmanusman 2y agoThose companies are faltering without software talent.
- golol 2y agoTesla has the world's best autonomous vehicle offering by some way of measuring things. There are many ways to measure things, but at least in some "category" they are indeed leading: Level 2 systems for the US which you can privately buy.