I think the products all look great. The timeline, who knows. They probably will manage to get at least the Robotaxi out as a buzzer beater December 2026 releas

I think the products all look great. The timeline, who knows. They probably will manage to get at least the Robotaxi out as a buzzer beater December 2026 release of a handful, at a minimum. Unsupervised FSD timeline? Elon says 2025. I suspect they can do that, if you define it as Level 3, where you just need to take over within, say, 10-30 seconds. Probably starting on highway. Beyond that, hard to say. Recent FSD versions are impressive, but there is still a lot to do to reduce disengagement rates. But their strategy seems like it can be made to work. How soon will it take to get it good enough for Robotaxi/Robovan? Well, they can basically have said no sooner than two years (for the late 2026 Robotaxi release). I doubt unsupervised FSD will work in a fully autonomous taxi mode on existing vehicles until the very end of that window. Will the Tesla AI3 computers support Unsupervised FSD, sounds like possibly not, based on Elon's suspiciously noncommittal response to a guy yelling in the crowd. They can probably squeeze out of past promises on this in a couple ways if it won't work on AI3 cars. Presumably they'll want to minimize cost impact of making good. I think they'll first try to get as many FSD users to upgrade to a new AI4 (or later) vehicle by incentivizing them with free FSD transfer. For the rest, they could offer even bigger discounts on upgrading to a new car, and then finally bite the bullet and do some kind of FSD retrofit or simply refund. Or just piss everyone off and wait for the class action. But I suspect they'll resolve it sort of amicably while wanting to sweep it under the rug. They could also never be able to make autonomy work, but I think that's doubtful at this point. Waymo demonstrates you can do it with geographical, time, and other constraints, limited release, and a different hardware stack. I think Tesla's vision-only approach has been fairly well validated on the existing hardware. The remaining issues do not seem like they require significantly improved sensors to operate in at least 90% or so of conditions, which is more than sufficient to run a taxi service.