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>“Ceres is a lot closer and it’s a lot easier to get to than these moons in the outer solar system,” Raymond says. “So it is a very enticing target. Many of us

>“Ceres is a lot closer and it’s a lot easier to get to than these moons in the outer solar system,” Raymond says. “So it is a very enticing target. Many of us know we won't live long enough to see the results of any sort of mission to Europa or Titan meant to detect life in their deep, liquid oceans (if these oceans in fact exist, if we ever get there and are able to drill to them). Not only is Ceres much closer, but if this article is accurate, access to the subsurface ocean could be quite close to the surface. Here's hoping it comes to fruition.

b112 2y ago
Depends. Over the next 2 years, I expect SpaceX to send a lot of probes out. First, mass to orbit is super cheap now. Second, part of the whole R&D for Mars will be to try a variety of long range engine types and configs, and they love to iterate fast and play. So I expect probes sent in Mars' direction, but also elsewhere to explore. And I cannot stress this enough, they are clearly capable engineers, but these probes don't need 10 years of development and hyper engineering, because cost to orbit is meaningless. A probe fails? Who cares! You sent 5 different designs, and can just send more anyhow. NASA was concerned about cost to orbit, but also perception. A lost probe would be a "waste to taxpayers", and just getting launch windows was a chore. I remember some probes had to wait years for space on the shuttle, so constrained was lift frequency. But SpaceX is OK with blowing stuff up during tests, with learning as they go. So I imagine 2 years max, they'll be spewing satellites all over the place, without a concern if they fail early, or even make it. Yet some will. Many will. And you can bet some will head to asteroids. Note: at this point someone usually chimes in with how hostile space is, and cheap probes won't work, and yada yada. I didn't say cheap. Cheap implies skimping out on part quality or construction. You don't need to do that, as the parts are not remotely expensive compared to R&D, dev time and custom build work. In fact if one removes R&D, part cost isn't noticeable. This means that scale is cheap. Building 1000 probes is almost the same cost as 1. And launch is now super cheap. Access to Space is on the verge of when airplanes became unremarkable. And it's coming faster than we think.
- elihu 2y ago
  I hope SpaceX does as you say and starts sending a lot of probes, but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. There isn't really a strong business case for scattering probes around the solar system. Starlink makes money. Selling launch capabilities to NASA makes money. Doing basic science? Establishing a Mars colony? Those sound more like the kind of thing that isn't going to happen unless Elon insists they do it, and it seems like maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    > but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. It will depend on the level of competition in the launch market. If there's another reusable launcher (Blue Origin, say) then SpaceX will be constrained to not mark up the price too much and prices will be closer to costs, and anyone will be able to benefit from the cost reduction that allows large projects like this.
  - randallsquared 2y ago
    > maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term. I think he's been pretty transparent that his recent interest in politics is downstream of his belief that Tesla and SpaceX will (continue to) be constrained by political action by one side more than the other.
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      And by transphobia.
    - idiotsecant 2y ago
      I think its entirely possible that he's an old man settling into a 'shakes fist at clouds' mindset and justifying supporting it by telling himself its the right business move. In reality I think he's a narcissist who is getting addicted to the limelight and this is just another stunt to get people to talk about him. I don't think its a business decision.

b112 2y ago

Depends. Over the next 2 years, I expect SpaceX to send a lot of probes out. First, mass to orbit is super cheap now. Second, part of the whole R&D for Mars will be to try a variety of long range engine types and configs, and they love to iterate fast and play. So I expect probes sent in Mars' direction, but also elsewhere to explore. And I cannot stress this enough, they are clearly capable engineers, but these probes don't need 10 years of development and hyper engineering, because cost to orbit is meaningless. A probe fails? Who cares! You sent 5 different designs, and can just send more anyhow. NASA was concerned about cost to orbit, but also perception. A lost probe would be a "waste to taxpayers", and just getting launch windows was a chore. I remember some probes had to wait years for space on the shuttle, so constrained was lift frequency. But SpaceX is OK with blowing stuff up during tests, with learning as they go. So I imagine 2 years max, they'll be spewing satellites all over the place, without a concern if they fail early, or even make it. Yet some will. Many will. And you can bet some will head to asteroids. Note: at this point someone usually chimes in with how hostile space is, and cheap probes won't work, and yada yada. I didn't say cheap. Cheap implies skimping out on part quality or construction. You don't need to do that, as the parts are not remotely expensive compared to R&D, dev time and custom build work. In fact if one removes R&D, part cost isn't noticeable. This means that scale is cheap. Building 1000 probes is almost the same cost as 1. And launch is now super cheap. Access to Space is on the verge of when airplanes became unremarkable. And it's coming faster than we think.

elihu 2y ago
I hope SpaceX does as you say and starts sending a lot of probes, but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. There isn't really a strong business case for scattering probes around the solar system. Starlink makes money. Selling launch capabilities to NASA makes money. Doing basic science? Establishing a Mars colony? Those sound more like the kind of thing that isn't going to happen unless Elon insists they do it, and it seems like maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  > but a lot really depends on the whims of Elon. It will depend on the level of competition in the launch market. If there's another reusable launcher (Blue Origin, say) then SpaceX will be constrained to not mark up the price too much and prices will be closer to costs, and anyone will be able to benefit from the cost reduction that allows large projects like this.
- randallsquared 2y ago
  > maybe he's not as interested in space exploration these days as he is in trying to get Donald Trump elected to another term. I think he's been pretty transparent that his recent interest in politics is downstream of his belief that Tesla and SpaceX will (continue to) be constrained by political action by one side more than the other.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    And by transphobia.
  - idiotsecant 2y ago
    I think its entirely possible that he's an old man settling into a 'shakes fist at clouds' mindset and justifying supporting it by telling himself its the right business move. In reality I think he's a narcissist who is getting addicted to the limelight and this is just another stunt to get people to talk about him. I don't think its a business decision.