4 ms·

It doesn't matter because it's a meaningless statistic. But sure, I'll entertain it. Last figure I heard was 1 disengagement per 200 miles. The distance between

It doesn't matter because it's a meaningless statistic. But sure, I'll entertain it. Last figure I heard was 1 disengagement per 200 miles. The distance between SF and LA is 380 miles. If my car can drive me from SF to LA and I only have to intervene once, that's already incredible and leagues ahead of what Waymo can offer. And since you asked, FSD 12.6 will reduce disengagements per mile by 5x.

crustaceansoup 2y ago
Waymo doesn't require a driver to supervise the car, they're supposedly running Level 4 cars. FSD requires continual supervision, you must be responsible and attentive at all times. How is this a reasonable comparison?
- lopkeny12ko 2y ago
  You say this as if there isn't an army of teleoperators behind the scenes ready to remotely take over a Waymo at a moment's notice... It was also announced today that unsupervised FSD is coming to Texas and California in 2025.
  - peutetre 2y ago
    It was also announced that there would be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road in 2020: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...
  - crustaceansoup 2y ago
    There's a big difference between "someone at central command can take over when the car signals" and "someone must watch the car constantly and take over when they see it do anything bad". The disengagement events on recent videos of FSD are still the likes of "oops it almost turned into oncoming traffic" or "oops it almost ran into a pole", that's the sort of thing you have to catch before it happens, not after.
lern_too_spel 2y ago
Waymo was doing .64 disengagements per 1000 miles in 2015 and wasn't comfortable launching a taxi service on that. Even after 12.6, Tesla will be behind. The point is Tesla can't launch a driverless taxi service on its current system, not from SF to LA, not within SF, not anywhere.
- lopkeny12ko 2y ago
  My Tesla drives me around SF every day yet you're telling me it doesn't
  - minwcnt5 2y ago
    No, he's telling you that Waymo could do the same thing (and better) in 2015, yet it took them 8 more years to launch a robotaxi service. So, Tesla robotaxi in 2032 maybe?
  - paxys 2y ago
    And yet you have to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention at all times. Why is that?
    - fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
      For the record, you no longer have to keep your hands on the wheel at all times. I think it’s a mistake to conflate the actual capabilities of the system with the user instructions for how the system is being used. SAE levels are primarily about the latter and about who takes liability for the operation of the vehicle. Conflating the two punishes car manufacturers who are cautious about the current state of their self-driving system.
spankalee 2y ago
You do realize that Waymos don't have drivers behind the wheel, right?
- iwaztomack 2y ago
  I thought they had remote drivers to take over when shit goes south?
  - AlotOfReading 2y ago
    No, remote operators are never in control of the vehicles. They give the computer hints about how to handle situations it's unable to resolve for itself, but the computer is ultimately still responsible for driving and maintaining the safety invariants. This is fundamentally different from FSD, where the human is always responsible for driving and maintaining the safety invariants.
    - iwaztomack 2y ago
      "They give the computer hints about how to handle situations" That's a cute euphemism for remote operators.
      - AlotOfReading 2y ago
        It entails a completely different division of responsibilities and safety profile. Specifically, it's one of the critical differences between SAE levels 2/3 and level 4: https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/j3016/J3016_table.jpg https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/j3016/J3016_table.jpg To give an analogy, let's say you use a credit card. A machine processes the payment most of the time, but occasionally something looks suspicious, so it denies the payment and sends a message to a human (you) asking whether the next payment should be allowed. Do you consider yourself to be a "driver" in this system? If so, imagine a system where all payments flash by onscreen for a human that's tasked with stopping erroneous approvals in realtime. Are humans doing the essentially the same job in this system such that both roles are "drivers"?
- 2y ago
gogoincar 2y ago
Since there is nobody in the driver seat of a Waymo to intervene, how does that work?
- flutas 2y ago
  They stall out blocking traffic (the most recent example was blocking the VPs motorcade).

crustaceansoup 2y ago

Waymo doesn't require a driver to supervise the car, they're supposedly running Level 4 cars. FSD requires continual supervision, you must be responsible and attentive at all times. How is this a reasonable comparison?

lopkeny12ko 2y ago
You say this as if there isn't an army of teleoperators behind the scenes ready to remotely take over a Waymo at a moment's notice... It was also announced today that unsupervised FSD is coming to Texas and California in 2025.
- peutetre 2y ago
  It was also announced that there would be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road in 2020: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...
- crustaceansoup 2y ago
  There's a big difference between "someone at central command can take over when the car signals" and "someone must watch the car constantly and take over when they see it do anything bad". The disengagement events on recent videos of FSD are still the likes of "oops it almost turned into oncoming traffic" or "oops it almost ran into a pole", that's the sort of thing you have to catch before it happens, not after.

lern_too_spel 2y ago

Waymo was doing .64 disengagements per 1000 miles in 2015 and wasn't comfortable launching a taxi service on that. Even after 12.6, Tesla will be behind. The point is Tesla can't launch a driverless taxi service on its current system, not from SF to LA, not within SF, not anywhere.

lopkeny12ko 2y ago
My Tesla drives me around SF every day yet you're telling me it doesn't
- minwcnt5 2y ago
  No, he's telling you that Waymo could do the same thing (and better) in 2015, yet it took them 8 more years to launch a robotaxi service. So, Tesla robotaxi in 2032 maybe?
- paxys 2y ago
  And yet you have to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention at all times. Why is that?
  - fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
    For the record, you no longer have to keep your hands on the wheel at all times. I think it’s a mistake to conflate the actual capabilities of the system with the user instructions for how the system is being used. SAE levels are primarily about the latter and about who takes liability for the operation of the vehicle. Conflating the two punishes car manufacturers who are cautious about the current state of their self-driving system.

spankalee 2y ago

You do realize that Waymos don't have drivers behind the wheel, right?

iwaztomack 2y ago
I thought they had remote drivers to take over when shit goes south?
- AlotOfReading 2y ago
  No, remote operators are never in control of the vehicles. They give the computer hints about how to handle situations it's unable to resolve for itself, but the computer is ultimately still responsible for driving and maintaining the safety invariants. This is fundamentally different from FSD, where the human is always responsible for driving and maintaining the safety invariants.
  - iwaztomack 2y ago
    "They give the computer hints about how to handle situations" That's a cute euphemism for remote operators.
    - AlotOfReading 2y ago
      It entails a completely different division of responsibilities and safety profile. Specifically, it's one of the critical differences between SAE levels 2/3 and level 4: https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/j3016/J3016_table.jpg https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/j3016/J3016_table.jpg To give an analogy, let's say you use a credit card. A machine processes the payment most of the time, but occasionally something looks suspicious, so it denies the payment and sends a message to a human (you) asking whether the next payment should be allowed. Do you consider yourself to be a "driver" in this system? If so, imagine a system where all payments flash by onscreen for a human that's tasked with stopping erroneous approvals in realtime. Are humans doing the essentially the same job in this system such that both roles are "drivers"?
2y ago

gogoincar 2y ago

Since there is nobody in the driver seat of a Waymo to intervene, how does that work?

flutas 2y ago
They stall out blocking traffic (the most recent example was blocking the VPs motorcade).