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> So far, government attempts to incentivize childbearing have failed to bring fertility rates back to replacement levels. Future government policy, regardless
by marcusverus 2y ago
> So far, government attempts to incentivize childbearing have failed to bring fertility rates back to replacement levels. Future government policy, regardless of its ambition, will not stave off depopulation.
I find this to be amusing, because as far as I can tell government policies are a major cause of depopulation in the first place.
Women don't want to have children because having children is no longer a net positive. Having children is no longer a net positive because they are not relied upon in old age--the government will support you with medicare, medicaid, etc. If women felt that having children was a requirement to be taken care of in old age, they'd go right back to having four kids each.
On the bright side, this problem seems likely (in the absence of extreme levels of immigration) to solve itself naturally. As the population curve inverts further, we'll have fewer resources to take care of our elders, and young women will realize that having a few kids (who can support them later) is vastly preferable to the alternative of spending their old age in squalor--just as it used to be.
- RGamma 2y agoYou may be overestimating the subjective importance of elderly care/life span maximization. I think many would be just as fine with assisted suicide in that setting. I, for one, would rather not end up as a demented mummy which I've seen plenty enough of. Sure there's pre-terminal scenarios where adult children may be of help, but different living arrangements could mitigate that. IIRC I've read that even pre-modern cities have often suffered from below replacement fertility, propped up by countryside migration. Children are decent laborers for subsistence farmers. But yeah, as others have pointed out, it may well be a socially contagious mood that's causing the current trend. Personally, I'd like to think it's having to do with our imposing technosphere causing wildlife extinction, global warming, etc and a desire for better balance, but that may be too optimistic.