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Three rules for technological fixes: How to decide which problems will yield to technology
- bootload 18y ago"... Not all problems will yield to technology. Deciding which will and which won't should be central to setting innovation policy .." Forget trying to read the article it's subscription. But the question posed is a good one. My stab is to use trial and error, cheaply. But there has to be more to it than that. Maybe a surfing analogy is order. Riding the wave of problems only leads to technical breakthroughs if you choose the right wave. Go to early and it you miss the break and ride over the bump and miss it. Go to late and you also miss it. You have to exhibit good timing (luck?) to enter the wave just at the right spot and hold on. Some old salts who have been around for a long time, say that if you squint at the market you can see those waves before everyone else and dabble and catch them before they get big. But this only happens once and a while when you least expect it.
- skmurphy 18y agoSee http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081218094626.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081218094626.ht... for a long summary that's no charge. 1. The technology must address the cause-effect relationship connecting problem to solution. For example, vaccines work with great reliability because they address almost all of the important variables necessary for preventing the disease. 2. The effects of the technological fix must be unambiguous using uncontroversial criteria: benefits must be obvious to all. 3. R&D is more likely to solve a social problem when it improves an existing technical core. It's less effective when exploring theoretical foundations, causes or dynamics of a problem.
- robg 18y agoThanks. I was behind a firewall and couldn't test whether it was free.