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I'm looking at a scenario for the counties: Citrus Hardee Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Polk Sumter (Project Phoenix Scenario) Barrier islands a
by Vecr 2y ago
I'm looking at a scenario for the counties: Citrus Hardee Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Polk Sumter (Project Phoenix Scenario)
Barrier islands are quickly overtopped, provide ~no protection.
Water up to 26 feet above tide level in downtown Tampa. Bridges have their approaches washed away or are otherwise made unusable.
Most windows blown out in high rise buildings. Along with roof damage/destruction, leads to predictable results for the structures involved.
Inland is not protected from flooding, rivers Hillsborough, Alafia, Lower Manatee, Braden, and Manatee and the Tampa Bypass Canal fill with storm surge water and flood their banks.
During the peak of the flooding, parts of central St. Petersburg and mid‐Pinellas County that are not fully flooded become effective islands. Escape is probably not possible.
General inability to operate Search and Rescue, even days afterwards. Major loss of life.
Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision.
- Atotalnoob 2y agoWhere are you seeing 26ft? NOAA is projecting 10-15 ft
- JamesSwift 2y ago10-15 is probably storm surge and 26 is with waves on top
- perihelions 2y agoI don't know where[a] they found that exact number, but it seems reasonable for parts of the bay interior, because of funneling effects. Same reason the Bay of Fundy has a 16-meter daily tide when the open ocean doesn't do that. ([a] 26 feet is the exact elevation of Tampa International Airport, so perhaps it's that. If you look at the surge maps, they do show a nonzero chance of surge over those runways).
- Vecr 2y agoI got it from the Project Phoenix Scenario.
- Atotalnoob 2y agoProject phoenix is a made up simulation
- Vecr 2y agoYes? When I wrote the original comment the actual data looked pretty close, and I still think it's a pretty good match. It would be difficult to re-calculate bridge damage estimates in real time.
- gigatree 2y ago> Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision. Isn’t that a bit hyperbolic?