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Thank you. I was wrong and thought "/ES contract 24 months out will show what investors/market makers/whoever think the market will grow to in 24 months" I did

Thank you. I was wrong and thought "/ES contract 24 months out will show what investors/market makers/whoever think the market will grow to in 24 months" I didn't realize it was exclusively (as you said, dividends + ~risk free rate). Is there anything that you are aware of options chain wise (for example, a call 12 months out or 24 months out) that holds any statistical accuracy/merit in "oh, the market collectively thinks S&P will end up around this price range by this time period?

blitzar 2y ago
If collectively the market thinks the price will be 7,000 in a year then the market will collectively buy it now and will continue to do so until it is 7,000 now. The collectively expected price in the future is the FV of todays price.
- MuffinFlavored 2y ago
  > If collectively the market thinks the price will be 7,000 in a year then the market will collectively buy it now and will continue to do so until it is 7,000 now. That's for boring dollar cost averaging. I was saying, is there anything we can look at "proof" on the options chain or futures contracts on what people/"the big boys" are "hedging for/against"?