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When we'll reach this inflection point with jet fighters? I remain skeptical that the F-35 will prove to be a prudent expenditure of resources both financial a

by Teever 2y ago

When we'll reach this inflection point with jet fighters? I remain skeptical that the F-35 will prove to be a prudent expenditure of resources both financial and in terms of R&D.

CrimsonCape 2y ago
In retrospect the money would have been better spent on building a Berry-compliant drone making company that can build consumer and attack drones. Instead, the retrospective will likely be: "I guess we should now build drones in addition to our jet fighter." Double the effort, half the efficiency, half the result.
- Teever 2y ago
  Yeah that's where I'm at with this topic too. If we use the Ukraine war as a template for the next major war that the US faces (possibly against China) -- does the United States have the industrial capability to produce the tens to hundreds of millions of drones necessary to win? Like can it produce the propellers, the frames, the motors, the batteries, the ICs to make a FPV drone that blows up in an enemy soldiers face? Can that supply chain be made in the US and how long can will it take to make? Is this a priority for the United States? Why or why not?
  - CuriousCosmic 2y ago
    > Like can it produce the propellers, the frames, the motors, the batteries, the ICs to make a FPV drone that blows up in an enemy soldiers face? Yes > Can that supply chain be made in the US and how long can will it take to make? In a limited capacity yes but also in like 5 or so years the answer will be an unequivocal yes.
    - Teever 2y ago
      I'm interested to know more about this. Can you provide more details?
      - HeWhoLurksLate 2y ago
        TSMC is building significant, cutting-edge fab capacity in the US at present
        JohnBooty 2y ago
        It's very, very unclear to me what would happen to TSMC's American operations if China invades/seizes/blockades Taiwan. How independent would TSMC's American foundries be if cut off and forced to operate autonomously if US/China war breaks out? I am sure that the goal is full independence but I have no idea what the current state of that is, what the state of it will be in 5-10 years etc.
        Teever 2y ago
        Is it cost effective or logistically scalable to have the kinds of ICs that are used in current cheap FPV drones to be made on the latest fabs?
        CuriousCosmic 2y ago
        Well the US has a ton of larger process size fabs. There's at least 100 fabs of varying sizes and processes in the US as well as internal supply chain for materials, testing, and assembly. (Where do you think most of the semiconductors containing classified designs are manufactured) Most are much smaller and more specialised/less automated so they don't have the same kind of production but there are a lot of fabs in the US and a lot of fab knowledge. Of all the countries, the US is one of the few that could probably survive a semiconductor industry collapse outside. And many of those semiconductors in cheap FPV drones likely are actually fabbed in the US or could easily be fabbed in the US by Intel, Infineon, Texas Instruments, pSemi, NXP, Bosch, Renesas, Micron, onsemi, Analog Devices, Honeywell, Polar, GlobalFoundaries, Microchip, or Samsung, just to name a few non-military facing companies with significant fab operations in the US.
spacebanana7 2y ago
Without a capable stealth fighter the US & allies could lose air superiority to China very quickly in the Indo Pacific. And operations in the Middle East could become much more high risk from SAMs. However it’s interesting to compare the F35 program to the alternative of producing several hundred F22s, or some other stealth solution.
- CuriousCosmic 2y ago
  The F-22 is still a better dogfighting craft than the F-35. In many many ways the F-35 is effectively a commoditised, specced down version of the F-22 geared towards general multi-role operation while the F-22 is hyper-specialised towards killing any other aircraft. And importantly, the US wants to export the F-35 but keep the F-22 close to chest so that should push come to shove, the US can always maintain air superiority.
- throwaway2037 2y ago
  Why don't you think aircraft carrier deployed F/A-18 Super Hornet would be effective against China to protect Taiwan?
  - spacebanana7 2y ago
    As a measure of deterrence, carries with Hornets can be useful. They do make it more difficult and expensive for the Chinese to take Taiwan. However, it's unrealistic for them to establish anything like air superiority over the Taiwan Straits. Each carrier has fewer than 100 aircraft, and only a couple can be deployed to the region at a time. The opposing PLAAF has over 2000 combat aircraft including hundreds of stealth planes. For the US to be competitive such a contest they need planes that are qualitatively better than the Chinese ones by a huge margin. American advantages in stealth, missile range and avionics are essential just to stay in the game.
CuriousCosmic 2y ago
Idk how they wouldn't compete in terms of financials. They are in effect the specced-down mass production version of the F-22 and are comparable in terms of cost relative to similar fifth generation fighters (and even comparable to many fourth generation fights) but go toe to toe with or outperform the competition. This stacks the deck such that the F-35 will be a peer to or superior to any "opposition" aircraft or anti-air weapon system while the US keeps the F-22 around to serve as a dogfighter that is reserved for fighting the rare circumstance of something that's legitimately a threat to an F-35.
- epolanski 2y ago
  This is all theoretical until properly tested.
- Teever 2y ago
  Why can't small, cheap drones do to the modern fighters what they're doing to modern tanks?
  - Atotalnoob 2y ago
    F35 platform is built to allow the pilot to control “fleets” of drones.
  - rgmerk 2y ago
    Because small, cheap drones can’t fly at supersonic speeds at long enough range to matter. Drones that can do that are called “anti-aircraft missiles”.
    - Teever 2y ago
      What are the speeds and the distances required to take down a jet like an F-35? Are you absolutely certain that there's no other way to take down modern fighter aircraft? Like isn't that the lesson from the Ukraine war w.r.t. tanks? That there are cheaper, more effective tools out there to take out state of the art equipment.
zmgsabst 2y ago
The US is already investigating that, eg, with targeting drones backed by larger craft carrying large numbers of missiles.
rjurney 2y ago
Oh they will. They are the sensor-fused quarterbacks of drone warfare.

by Teever 2y ago

When we'll reach this inflection point with jet fighters? I remain skeptical that the F-35 will prove to be a prudent expenditure of resources both financial and in terms of R&D.

CrimsonCape 2y ago

In retrospect the money would have been better spent on building a Berry-compliant drone making company that can build consumer and attack drones. Instead, the retrospective will likely be: "I guess we should now build drones in addition to our jet fighter." Double the effort, half the efficiency, half the result.

Teever 2y ago
Yeah that's where I'm at with this topic too. If we use the Ukraine war as a template for the next major war that the US faces (possibly against China) -- does the United States have the industrial capability to produce the tens to hundreds of millions of drones necessary to win? Like can it produce the propellers, the frames, the motors, the batteries, the ICs to make a FPV drone that blows up in an enemy soldiers face? Can that supply chain be made in the US and how long can will it take to make? Is this a priority for the United States? Why or why not?
- CuriousCosmic 2y ago
  > Like can it produce the propellers, the frames, the motors, the batteries, the ICs to make a FPV drone that blows up in an enemy soldiers face? Yes > Can that supply chain be made in the US and how long can will it take to make? In a limited capacity yes but also in like 5 or so years the answer will be an unequivocal yes.
  - Teever 2y ago
    I'm interested to know more about this. Can you provide more details?
    - HeWhoLurksLate 2y ago
      TSMC is building significant, cutting-edge fab capacity in the US at present
      - JohnBooty 2y ago
        It's very, very unclear to me what would happen to TSMC's American operations if China invades/seizes/blockades Taiwan. How independent would TSMC's American foundries be if cut off and forced to operate autonomously if US/China war breaks out? I am sure that the goal is full independence but I have no idea what the current state of that is, what the state of it will be in 5-10 years etc.
      - Teever 2y ago
        Is it cost effective or logistically scalable to have the kinds of ICs that are used in current cheap FPV drones to be made on the latest fabs?
        CuriousCosmic 2y ago
        Well the US has a ton of larger process size fabs. There's at least 100 fabs of varying sizes and processes in the US as well as internal supply chain for materials, testing, and assembly. (Where do you think most of the semiconductors containing classified designs are manufactured) Most are much smaller and more specialised/less automated so they don't have the same kind of production but there are a lot of fabs in the US and a lot of fab knowledge. Of all the countries, the US is one of the few that could probably survive a semiconductor industry collapse outside. And many of those semiconductors in cheap FPV drones likely are actually fabbed in the US or could easily be fabbed in the US by Intel, Infineon, Texas Instruments, pSemi, NXP, Bosch, Renesas, Micron, onsemi, Analog Devices, Honeywell, Polar, GlobalFoundaries, Microchip, or Samsung, just to name a few non-military facing companies with significant fab operations in the US.

spacebanana7 2y ago

Without a capable stealth fighter the US & allies could lose air superiority to China very quickly in the Indo Pacific. And operations in the Middle East could become much more high risk from SAMs. However it’s interesting to compare the F35 program to the alternative of producing several hundred F22s, or some other stealth solution.

CuriousCosmic 2y ago
The F-22 is still a better dogfighting craft than the F-35. In many many ways the F-35 is effectively a commoditised, specced down version of the F-22 geared towards general multi-role operation while the F-22 is hyper-specialised towards killing any other aircraft. And importantly, the US wants to export the F-35 but keep the F-22 close to chest so that should push come to shove, the US can always maintain air superiority.
throwaway2037 2y ago
Why don't you think aircraft carrier deployed F/A-18 Super Hornet would be effective against China to protect Taiwan?
- spacebanana7 2y ago
  As a measure of deterrence, carries with Hornets can be useful. They do make it more difficult and expensive for the Chinese to take Taiwan. However, it's unrealistic for them to establish anything like air superiority over the Taiwan Straits. Each carrier has fewer than 100 aircraft, and only a couple can be deployed to the region at a time. The opposing PLAAF has over 2000 combat aircraft including hundreds of stealth planes. For the US to be competitive such a contest they need planes that are qualitatively better than the Chinese ones by a huge margin. American advantages in stealth, missile range and avionics are essential just to stay in the game.

CuriousCosmic 2y ago

Idk how they wouldn't compete in terms of financials. They are in effect the specced-down mass production version of the F-22 and are comparable in terms of cost relative to similar fifth generation fighters (and even comparable to many fourth generation fights) but go toe to toe with or outperform the competition. This stacks the deck such that the F-35 will be a peer to or superior to any "opposition" aircraft or anti-air weapon system while the US keeps the F-22 around to serve as a dogfighter that is reserved for fighting the rare circumstance of something that's legitimately a threat to an F-35.

epolanski 2y ago
This is all theoretical until properly tested.
Teever 2y ago
Why can't small, cheap drones do to the modern fighters what they're doing to modern tanks?
- Atotalnoob 2y ago
  F35 platform is built to allow the pilot to control “fleets” of drones.
- rgmerk 2y ago
  Because small, cheap drones can’t fly at supersonic speeds at long enough range to matter. Drones that can do that are called “anti-aircraft missiles”.
  - Teever 2y ago
    What are the speeds and the distances required to take down a jet like an F-35? Are you absolutely certain that there's no other way to take down modern fighter aircraft? Like isn't that the lesson from the Ukraine war w.r.t. tanks? That there are cheaper, more effective tools out there to take out state of the art equipment.

zmgsabst 2y ago

The US is already investigating that, eg, with targeting drones backed by larger craft carrying large numbers of missiles.

rjurney 2y ago

Oh they will. They are the sensor-fused quarterbacks of drone warfare.