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I think your biographical testimony more confirms than refutes my suspicions. You think "smart" implies a low chance of world-epochal AI breakthroughs that wou
by gojomo 2y ago
I think your biographical testimony more confirms than refutes my suspicions.
You think "smart" implies a low chance of world-epochal AI breakthroughs that would ruin your "slow-and-steady path to retirement". You think OpenAI has "no moat". You think it's wise to satisfice – taking a "decent" paycheck – rather than shoot-for-the-moon (and beyond it, control of the 'lightcone').
That's closer to the "short-term exit" mindset – get a good-enough payout, in mundane dollars, while you can – that you're alleging in Altman than what I'm seeing in his statements & behaviors. Yes, someone with your beliefs would in fact be trying to pump OpenAI's short-term hype for a timely exit and an even-more-cushy retirement.
But Altman's already a billionaire with any creature comfort he'd want, for the rest of his life, plus at least one "doomsday bunker" (per a 2016 'New Yorker' profile).
For at least 10 years, he's been consistently expressing a desire to advance, and control, breakthroughs in AI, AGI, and ASI that could – in a true believers' worldview – wipe away as obsolete all his prior billions – as well as the "slow-and-steady path[s] to retirement" pursued by others.
He knows as an insider and contributor OpenAI's actual lead over others – who have tended to approximately-reach OpenAI's capabilities a year or more later.
That you rate as OpenAI's "big news this week" their "Artifacts" end-user feature, rather than everything else announced & rolled out, plus OpenAI's gigantic leads in funds raised and revenue run-rate, suggests a particular world-view.
I would suggest that you are over-focused on the kind of small-stakes products/markets/ambitions that are highly-legible to a "software engineer comfortably drawing a decent-but-not-FAANG paycheck at an established company" – but such considerations are barely afterthoughts in the game of power & legacy that Altman is now playing.
- DirkH 2y agoStrong agree and strong upvote. An intuition pump is to think of a religious zealot that has a drastically different worldview and aims and drives from you that seem completely nonsensical (e.g. perhaps not caring about wealth accumulation at all - even for stability - and only about perpetuating God's glory). Sam is no religious zealot, but the difference in the life game he is playing and the life game most of us are playing is as vast as that between us and the zealot.