2 ms·

And bomb fallout is very different from the radioactive contamination from accidents at nuclear power plants: basically no area continues to have lethal levels

And bomb fallout is very different from the radioactive contamination from accidents at nuclear power plants: basically no area continues to have lethal levels of bomb fallout 4 weeks after the last bomb explodes. The method for decontaminating your house is to get up on a ladder and wash down your roof with a garden hose, then wash down all driveways and sidewalks. Assuming they all have enough supplies to shelter in place for 4 weeks. Sure, they do. Oh, and where does all that runoff go?

hollerith 2y ago
Most of the runoff probably ends up far enough away from your house that it doesn't harm you. Again: its very different from power-plant contamination: its radioactivity is diminishing very quickly. If you were lucky enough that your home was not covered in lethal levels of fallout, then it is likely that all the land within miles of your home is similarly safe, so you can range around looking for water, and most people can survive without eating (or eating only what food they happened to have around at the time of the attack) for a few weeks. It wouldn't be pleasant, of course (and I sure would prefer to be in a fallout shelter pre-stocked with food and water when the attack happens) but the point is that many people would survive even in the countries that were attacked. There's probably enough food in the US right now (mostly intended to be fed to farm animals, mostly stored on farms) to feed half of the US population. 2 weeks after the attack, it starts to makes sense for altruistically-inclined people (particularly if they have a Geiger counter) to load such food (along with a mill with which to turn it into flour -- also a common item stored on farms) on a truck and take it to where hungry people are. Old people are a good fit for this task: if you are 60 years old, then the prospect of developing cancer in 20 or 30 years is not exactly pleasant, but not particularly scary either.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  So you can range around looking for water Which most folks know how to do, of course. And we can be sure that when they encounter other groups of people at their favorite puddle, everyone will get along just fine. Most people can survive without eating (or eating only what food they happened to have around at the time of the attack) for a few weeks. And wouldn't be in the least motivated to leave their shelters. Howabout you try it first, and report back to us? Look, I'm not trying to be cute here. And we agree that it won't end global industry capacity (and even the countries directly affected would eventually spring back, as after WW2). I've also done my time in physics classes, and know about all that neat physics stuff. But your arguments sound very hand-wavy, and something tells me you're glossing over lots and lots of additional factors, and are basically trying to spin the situation as being far less of a calamity than it actually would be.
  - hollerith 2y ago
    Let's take a step back and recall what I'm arguing against: I never argued or meant to imply that there wouldn't be tremendous suffering and death. I'm only arguing that nuclear war is extremely unlikely to end industrial civilization (though it can sure suppress industrial capacity for a few years and possibly if we get very unlucky for a few decades) and is extremely unlikely cause human extinction.

hollerith 2y ago

Most of the runoff probably ends up far enough away from your house that it doesn't harm you. Again: its very different from power-plant contamination: its radioactivity is diminishing very quickly. If you were lucky enough that your home was not covered in lethal levels of fallout, then it is likely that all the land within miles of your home is similarly safe, so you can range around looking for water, and most people can survive without eating (or eating only what food they happened to have around at the time of the attack) for a few weeks. It wouldn't be pleasant, of course (and I sure would prefer to be in a fallout shelter pre-stocked with food and water when the attack happens) but the point is that many people would survive even in the countries that were attacked. There's probably enough food in the US right now (mostly intended to be fed to farm animals, mostly stored on farms) to feed half of the US population. 2 weeks after the attack, it starts to makes sense for altruistically-inclined people (particularly if they have a Geiger counter) to load such food (along with a mill with which to turn it into flour -- also a common item stored on farms) on a truck and take it to where hungry people are. Old people are a good fit for this task: if you are 60 years old, then the prospect of developing cancer in 20 or 30 years is not exactly pleasant, but not particularly scary either.

aguaviva 2y ago
So you can range around looking for water Which most folks know how to do, of course. And we can be sure that when they encounter other groups of people at their favorite puddle, everyone will get along just fine. Most people can survive without eating (or eating only what food they happened to have around at the time of the attack) for a few weeks. And wouldn't be in the least motivated to leave their shelters. Howabout you try it first, and report back to us? Look, I'm not trying to be cute here. And we agree that it won't end global industry capacity (and even the countries directly affected would eventually spring back, as after WW2). I've also done my time in physics classes, and know about all that neat physics stuff. But your arguments sound very hand-wavy, and something tells me you're glossing over lots and lots of additional factors, and are basically trying to spin the situation as being far less of a calamity than it actually would be.
- hollerith 2y ago
  Let's take a step back and recall what I'm arguing against: I never argued or meant to imply that there wouldn't be tremendous suffering and death. I'm only arguing that nuclear war is extremely unlikely to end industrial civilization (though it can sure suppress industrial capacity for a few years and possibly if we get very unlucky for a few decades) and is extremely unlikely cause human extinction.