3 ms·

Do not look at where we are, look at where we will be two more papers down the line

jeanlucas 2y ago
One my favorite YouTube channels
Nevermark 2y ago
Exactly. And pay more attention to the delta/time and delta/delta/time. We are all enjoying/noticing some repeatable wack behavior of LLMs, but we are seeing the dual wack of humans revealed too. Massive gains in neural type models and abilities A, B, C, ..., I, J, K, in very little time. Lots of humans: It's not impressive because can't L, M, yet. They say people model change as linear, even when it is exponential. But I think a lot of people judge the latest thing as if it somehow became a constant. As if there hasn't been a succession of big leaps, and that they don't strongly imply that more leaps will follow quickly. Also, when you know before listening that a new artifact was created by a machine, it is easy to identify faults and "conclude" the machine's output was clearly identifiable. But that's pre-informed hindsight. If anyone heard this podcast in the context of The Onion, it would sound perfectly human. Intentionally hilarious, corny, etc. But it wouldn't give itself away as generated.
heyitsguay 2y ago
I feel like people have been saying that since GPT-4 dropped (many papers up the line now) and while there have been all sorts of cool LLM applications and AI developments writ large, there hasn't really been anything to inspire a feeling that another step change is imminent. We got a big boost by training on all the data on the Internet. What happens next is unclear.
loveparade 2y ago
Except that none of the fundamental limitations have changed for many years now. That was a few thousand papers ago. I'm not saying that none of the LLM stuff it's useful, it is, and many useful applications are likely undiscovered. I am using it daily myself. But people expecting some kind of sudden leap in reasoning are going to be pretty disappointed.
HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
We don't even need to look that far. During an extended interaction the new ChatGPT voice mode suddenly began speaking in my boyfriend's voice. Flawlessly. Tone, accent, pauses, speaking style, the stunted vowels from a childhood mouth injury. In that moment there were two of him in the room. OpenAI considers this phenomenon a software bug

One my favorite YouTube channels

Exactly. And pay more attention to the delta/time and delta/delta/time. We are all enjoying/noticing some repeatable wack behavior of LLMs, but we are seeing the dual wack of humans revealed too. Massive gains in neural type models and abilities A, B, C, ..., I, J, K, in very little time. Lots of humans: It's not impressive because can't L, M, yet. They say people model change as linear, even when it is exponential. But I think a lot of people judge the latest thing as if it somehow became a constant. As if there hasn't been a succession of big leaps, and that they don't strongly imply that more leaps will follow quickly. Also, when you know before listening that a new artifact was created by a machine, it is easy to identify faults and "conclude" the machine's output was clearly identifiable. But that's pre-informed hindsight. If anyone heard this podcast in the context of The Onion, it would sound perfectly human. Intentionally hilarious, corny, etc. But it wouldn't give itself away as generated.

heyitsguay 2y ago

I feel like people have been saying that since GPT-4 dropped (many papers up the line now) and while there have been all sorts of cool LLM applications and AI developments writ large, there hasn't really been anything to inspire a feeling that another step change is imminent. We got a big boost by training on all the data on the Internet. What happens next is unclear.

loveparade 2y ago

Except that none of the fundamental limitations have changed for many years now. That was a few thousand papers ago. I'm not saying that none of the LLM stuff it's useful, it is, and many useful applications are likely undiscovered. I am using it daily myself. But people expecting some kind of sudden leap in reasoning are going to be pretty disappointed.

HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago

We don't even need to look that far. During an extended interaction the new ChatGPT voice mode suddenly began speaking in my boyfriend's voice. Flawlessly. Tone, accent, pauses, speaking style, the stunted vowels from a childhood mouth injury. In that moment there were two of him in the room. OpenAI considers this phenomenon a software bug