4 ms·

Honestly, this opinion is borderline tinfoil hat territory, but I'd like to point out that between the sudden market expectation that fired hundreds of thousand

by NBJack 2y ago

Honestly, this opinion is borderline tinfoil hat territory, but I'd like to point out that between the sudden market expectation that fired hundreds of thousands of developers across multiple companies (in a very close time period!) and constant "LLMs that replace humans are just around the corner" marketing drivel, it almost appears as if The Market (tm) wants to really just drive down the costs of developers more than anything else. Perhaps it's all a completely legit market turn, and I'm the one in the dark. But I continue to be pessimistic that LLMs are truly going to change anything for the better.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
There's already a type of search that is much better now than 3 years ago.
- skeptrune 2y ago
  I made an HN search engine which I think is better than the existing - https://hn.trieve.ai https://hn.trieve.ai and I still agree with the above comment. Tinfoil hat vibes all around for me too with the LLM's taking Dev jobs.
- makeitdouble 2y ago
  For people not actively dipping their toes in the field, which type of search do you have in mind ?
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    Predictive search: i.e. What will the greenhouse gas emissions of China be in 2032?
majormajor 2y ago
2020 bubble hiring was weird enough that I mostly throw out the 2020 hiring and the 2022 layoffs both and just look at things compared to 2018/2019. That ramp-up in the 2010s was called a bubble for years even before Covid but has never popped yet. The expected product bar just keeps getting hire instead.
- mlinhares 2y ago
  I don't think it was just 2020, when you started to see people being hired out of bootcamps with 0 experience whatsoever to entry level jobs it was visible there was something weird with the market. That has mostly reverted and I haven't seen a bootcamp ad in a while.
  - Capricorn2481 2y ago
    I interview a lot of candidates and there is a much higher ratio of qualified candidates from bootcamps than from college, assuming they're not going to the trash ones like Trilogy Education Services (which, believe me, is worse than nothing). That's all anecdotal, but please read the rest as me explaining why that's happened to us. The candidates from college, so often, come into the interview completely unprepared for the job. We have hired some bootcamp grads and college grads, but the only candidates we've ever fired for inadequate work were college grads (and this is, of course, a high bar at our company. We do our best to train and foster growth and hate firing anyone, but sometimes people are just not ready for the job). I have some experience with this first-hand. I did half my degree in college before trying a bootcamp. What they taught me was night and day more practical than what I was learning in college. I think college CS programs are paced poorly and lead to students forgetting most of what they learned by the time they graduate. Bootcamp students have been preparing for the job 40-60 hours a week for months, and are ready to start as soon as they join. I don't get all the hate for them. I think it speaks to some kneejerk gatekeeping that isn't based in anything concrete. But of course, there are lots of other reasons to go to college than raw practical experience.
    - mlinhares 2y ago
      Haven't had the same experience here in the US or back when I was in Brazil, might have been biased as all college grads I interacted with had been interns (specially in Brazil, as you'd usually intern at least half a year) so they all had some experience in coding and were able to get the job done with proper guidance. For bootcamp graduates it was very hit and miss and they usually lacked most of the basic computer science knowledge in data structures, algorithms and higher level concepts like design patterns and object oriented design. So the ramp up ended up being much longer. I think you can do something in six months but it's not the same as college, had a great experience when I was there and wouldn't trade it for "faster" job placement at all.
qntmfred 2y ago
> The Market (tm) wants to really just drive down the costs of developers more than anything else. well yeah. this wasn't going to last forever. in the US especially. Salaries here were bonkers compared to the rest of the global developer workforce. Gotta remember, remote work wasn't common and barely possible at scale not that long ago. COVID put an end to that, and with it the expectation that management hire developers in any particular local geography. Despite all the RTO drama in some organizations, the majority of the economy was always going to cash in on the advantages of hiring developers in other countries, and squeezing even more productivity out of them with AI tooling. Downward pressure has been a long time coming. Hope y'all enjoyed the ride.
JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 2y ago
It’s not your tinfoil hat IMHO. I see a few managers and non-technical people (IRL and more on LinkedIn) who “study” prompting with the idea that they can replace people with LLMs and cut down costs. LLMs can be useful in very specific tasks but these people don’t care about it as they don’t have the technical knowledge to see how and why. All they care about is more money for them. It won’t be limited to developers though if that happens, and with the darkest scenario, UBI will have to happen as you can’t have half the population unemployed roaming the streets.
Ekaros 2y ago
I always question was the firing due to some LLM or changing market conditions namely much higher rates. As higher rates means investments don't need to search for new products and actually companies investing in products with debt get lot more expensive. Thus there is less demand for new products thus less demand from someone to make those. It could very well be time period where just less software will be produced. And software that is need to make returns at least in medium term already.

by NBJack 2y ago

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago

There's already a type of search that is much better now than 3 years ago.

skeptrune 2y ago
I made an HN search engine which I think is better than the existing - https://hn.trieve.ai https://hn.trieve.ai and I still agree with the above comment. Tinfoil hat vibes all around for me too with the LLM's taking Dev jobs.
makeitdouble 2y ago
For people not actively dipping their toes in the field, which type of search do you have in mind ?
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  Predictive search: i.e. What will the greenhouse gas emissions of China be in 2032?

majormajor 2y ago

2020 bubble hiring was weird enough that I mostly throw out the 2020 hiring and the 2022 layoffs both and just look at things compared to 2018/2019. That ramp-up in the 2010s was called a bubble for years even before Covid but has never popped yet. The expected product bar just keeps getting hire instead.

mlinhares 2y ago
I don't think it was just 2020, when you started to see people being hired out of bootcamps with 0 experience whatsoever to entry level jobs it was visible there was something weird with the market. That has mostly reverted and I haven't seen a bootcamp ad in a while.
- Capricorn2481 2y ago
  I interview a lot of candidates and there is a much higher ratio of qualified candidates from bootcamps than from college, assuming they're not going to the trash ones like Trilogy Education Services (which, believe me, is worse than nothing). That's all anecdotal, but please read the rest as me explaining why that's happened to us. The candidates from college, so often, come into the interview completely unprepared for the job. We have hired some bootcamp grads and college grads, but the only candidates we've ever fired for inadequate work were college grads (and this is, of course, a high bar at our company. We do our best to train and foster growth and hate firing anyone, but sometimes people are just not ready for the job). I have some experience with this first-hand. I did half my degree in college before trying a bootcamp. What they taught me was night and day more practical than what I was learning in college. I think college CS programs are paced poorly and lead to students forgetting most of what they learned by the time they graduate. Bootcamp students have been preparing for the job 40-60 hours a week for months, and are ready to start as soon as they join. I don't get all the hate for them. I think it speaks to some kneejerk gatekeeping that isn't based in anything concrete. But of course, there are lots of other reasons to go to college than raw practical experience.
  - mlinhares 2y ago
    Haven't had the same experience here in the US or back when I was in Brazil, might have been biased as all college grads I interacted with had been interns (specially in Brazil, as you'd usually intern at least half a year) so they all had some experience in coding and were able to get the job done with proper guidance. For bootcamp graduates it was very hit and miss and they usually lacked most of the basic computer science knowledge in data structures, algorithms and higher level concepts like design patterns and object oriented design. So the ramp up ended up being much longer. I think you can do something in six months but it's not the same as college, had a great experience when I was there and wouldn't trade it for "faster" job placement at all.

qntmfred 2y ago

> The Market (tm) wants to really just drive down the costs of developers more than anything else. well yeah. this wasn't going to last forever. in the US especially. Salaries here were bonkers compared to the rest of the global developer workforce. Gotta remember, remote work wasn't common and barely possible at scale not that long ago. COVID put an end to that, and with it the expectation that management hire developers in any particular local geography. Despite all the RTO drama in some organizations, the majority of the economy was always going to cash in on the advantages of hiring developers in other countries, and squeezing even more productivity out of them with AI tooling. Downward pressure has been a long time coming. Hope y'all enjoyed the ride.

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 2y ago

It’s not your tinfoil hat IMHO. I see a few managers and non-technical people (IRL and more on LinkedIn) who “study” prompting with the idea that they can replace people with LLMs and cut down costs. LLMs can be useful in very specific tasks but these people don’t care about it as they don’t have the technical knowledge to see how and why. All they care about is more money for them. It won’t be limited to developers though if that happens, and with the darkest scenario, UBI will have to happen as you can’t have half the population unemployed roaming the streets.

Ekaros 2y ago

I always question was the firing due to some LLM or changing market conditions namely much higher rates. As higher rates means investments don't need to search for new products and actually companies investing in products with debt get lot more expensive. Thus there is less demand for new products thus less demand from someone to make those. It could very well be time period where just less software will be produced. And software that is need to make returns at least in medium term already.