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Blue and Green in Taiwan do not relate to environmentalism, they relate to the position of the party with respect to the mainland.

by adw 2y ago

topspin 2y ago
Setting aside the "blue green" matter, the question remains: what exactly are the "political reasons" at play here. That phrase raises my suspicions. Which party, what is their alignment and what is their problem with nuclear power?
- kenhwang 2y ago
  Green is the independent Taiwan/nationalist party. Blue is the anti-war/friendliness with China party. The anti-nuclear sentiment is more due to the age/state of the reactors and concerns over earthquake safety after the Fukushima nuclear accident and the inability for the island to store/handle/dispose of waste. I don't think the state of nuclear power will change much even if the blues gain power. Taiwanese politics has a way of making the minority party always be against the status quo for some issues just to be a pain for the majority party, and their stance on nuclear power tends to flip flop depending on who's in power.
  - tsudounym 2y ago
    It really makes sense for the DPP (Green) to be anti-nuclear. Mainland China is using Westinghouse AP1000 designs from the US for their nuke plants. Taiwan is friendlier with the US and can get a nice discount to license the same AP1000..
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      The DPP isn't anti-nuclear for strategic reasons - it's anti-nuclear for ideological reasons. The nuclear program in Taiwan was heavily tied to the KMT's ambitions, and as a result Taiwan's anti-nuclear movement is heavily tied to Taiwan's pro-democracy movement which became the DPP, along with the MASSIVE beating nuclear power took all over Asia after the Fukushima disaster (which imo was overhyped in Chinese language media). Politically speaking, Taiwan under authoritarian KMT rule was in a fairly similar spot to China today, and most of the significant gains that Taiwan saw happened after Taiwan democratized. That said, anti-nuclear sentiment is equally strong in Mainland China as well, and aside from flashy tech demonstrations, the PRC prefers to use a mix of more politically palatable coal and renewables. Finally, it is the 1980s-90s generation that is currently in power in Taiwan, and has been for a decade now. Anti-nuclear sentiment will remain for the foreseeable future [0] [0] - https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5123009 https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5123009
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    “Anti war/friendliness with China” is a very nice way of saying it’s the “let China seize control of the country” party.
    - roenxi 2y ago
      China: 1 Billion people, GDP ranking: #1 or #2 depending Taiwan: 0.02 Billion people, GDP ranking: Not even top 10, location: literally part of China. How do you see the future playing out where China doesn't get to do what it likes to Taiwan? It is all but set in stone at this point, literally the only path Taiwan has to get a good outcome is to negotiate it with China. We've seen in Ukraine what will happen to them if they rely on the US in a military way. There will be mass deaths, the island will be levelled and China will likely seize control anyway. I wouldn't want the CCP seizing control, but a policy of serious independence is being taken off the table due to China's sheer size. There isn't a backer available to Taiwan that is big enough to stop the mainland from getting what it wants. War is pointless for Taiwan; they'd even be better off going out Hong-Kong style.
      - blibble 2y ago
        > How do you see the future playing out where China doesn't get to do what it likes to Taiwan? if Taiwan carried out its former plan of using nuclear power stations to build the bomb it wouldn't have to worry about China again (or fickle US support)
      - nitwit005 2y ago
        If the bigger country always won, the world would be one giant stable empire ruling over everyone for the last ten thousand years. Ukraine is fighting Russia without other nation's armies directly joining them. Taiwan's allies have most of the globe's naval power.
        roenxi 2y ago
        It isn't a question of whether China would win, it is the certainty that Taiwan would lose. And regardless, that isn't the reason why large empires are unstable. Through history big countries tend to win but large agglomerations tend to dissolve for economic concerns. That is what happened in the largest imperial dissolutions in history (British, Mongols) which weren't because of a defeat by an external power or because they had any trouble conquering small powers. Or the most recent with things like the USSR. Large empires tend to lose through military victories and bad economic strategy.
  - topspin 2y ago
    This response doesn't get me there. I want specifics about where the anti-nuclear pressure comes from in Taiwan. A brief hunt for a description of the situation in Taiwan led me to this[1]: "Fast forward to the present day, and the energy battle lines have not much shifted, with most pro-nuclear advocates also representing the Kuomintang (KMT), the party of Chiang Kai-shek and whose candidate drew just 39% of the vote in the 2020 presidential race. Meanwhile, the DPP, which has grown to become dominant, remains heavily anti-nuclear. Over time, the distinctions on nuclear have become less about anti- or pro-authoritarianism; rather, the DPP is widely seen as the young, pro-environment party, while the KMT is seen as pro-business (and, paradoxically given its origins, too cozy with China). This leaves very little political space to advocate for nuclear energy on the premises of eco-modernist environmentalism." Ok. That's gets me there. The pressure is coming from environmentalists -- imbued with the unassailable virtue -- so any discussion of the matter carefully conceals the prevailing parties and positions and names go unnamed, by both journalists and the participants in this thread. Exactly what I suspected. [1] https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-18-fall-2022/taiwans-nuclear-option https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-18-fall-2022/taiwans-...

Blue and Green in Taiwan do not relate to environmentalism, they relate to the position of the party with respect to the mainland.

by adw 2y ago

Blue and Green in Taiwan do not relate to environmentalism, they relate to the position of the party with respect to the mainland.

topspin 2y ago

Setting aside the "blue green" matter, the question remains: what exactly are the "political reasons" at play here. That phrase raises my suspicions. Which party, what is their alignment and what is their problem with nuclear power?

kenhwang 2y ago
Green is the independent Taiwan/nationalist party. Blue is the anti-war/friendliness with China party. The anti-nuclear sentiment is more due to the age/state of the reactors and concerns over earthquake safety after the Fukushima nuclear accident and the inability for the island to store/handle/dispose of waste. I don't think the state of nuclear power will change much even if the blues gain power. Taiwanese politics has a way of making the minority party always be against the status quo for some issues just to be a pain for the majority party, and their stance on nuclear power tends to flip flop depending on who's in power.
- tsudounym 2y ago
  It really makes sense for the DPP (Green) to be anti-nuclear. Mainland China is using Westinghouse AP1000 designs from the US for their nuke plants. Taiwan is friendlier with the US and can get a nice discount to license the same AP1000..
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    The DPP isn't anti-nuclear for strategic reasons - it's anti-nuclear for ideological reasons. The nuclear program in Taiwan was heavily tied to the KMT's ambitions, and as a result Taiwan's anti-nuclear movement is heavily tied to Taiwan's pro-democracy movement which became the DPP, along with the MASSIVE beating nuclear power took all over Asia after the Fukushima disaster (which imo was overhyped in Chinese language media). Politically speaking, Taiwan under authoritarian KMT rule was in a fairly similar spot to China today, and most of the significant gains that Taiwan saw happened after Taiwan democratized. That said, anti-nuclear sentiment is equally strong in Mainland China as well, and aside from flashy tech demonstrations, the PRC prefers to use a mix of more politically palatable coal and renewables. Finally, it is the 1980s-90s generation that is currently in power in Taiwan, and has been for a decade now. Anti-nuclear sentiment will remain for the foreseeable future [0] [0] - https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5123009 https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5123009
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  “Anti war/friendliness with China” is a very nice way of saying it’s the “let China seize control of the country” party.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    China: 1 Billion people, GDP ranking: #1 or #2 depending Taiwan: 0.02 Billion people, GDP ranking: Not even top 10, location: literally part of China. How do you see the future playing out where China doesn't get to do what it likes to Taiwan? It is all but set in stone at this point, literally the only path Taiwan has to get a good outcome is to negotiate it with China. We've seen in Ukraine what will happen to them if they rely on the US in a military way. There will be mass deaths, the island will be levelled and China will likely seize control anyway. I wouldn't want the CCP seizing control, but a policy of serious independence is being taken off the table due to China's sheer size. There isn't a backer available to Taiwan that is big enough to stop the mainland from getting what it wants. War is pointless for Taiwan; they'd even be better off going out Hong-Kong style.
    - blibble 2y ago
      > How do you see the future playing out where China doesn't get to do what it likes to Taiwan? if Taiwan carried out its former plan of using nuclear power stations to build the bomb it wouldn't have to worry about China again (or fickle US support)
    - nitwit005 2y ago
      If the bigger country always won, the world would be one giant stable empire ruling over everyone for the last ten thousand years. Ukraine is fighting Russia without other nation's armies directly joining them. Taiwan's allies have most of the globe's naval power.
      - roenxi 2y ago
        It isn't a question of whether China would win, it is the certainty that Taiwan would lose. And regardless, that isn't the reason why large empires are unstable. Through history big countries tend to win but large agglomerations tend to dissolve for economic concerns. That is what happened in the largest imperial dissolutions in history (British, Mongols) which weren't because of a defeat by an external power or because they had any trouble conquering small powers. Or the most recent with things like the USSR. Large empires tend to lose through military victories and bad economic strategy.
- topspin 2y ago
  This response doesn't get me there. I want specifics about where the anti-nuclear pressure comes from in Taiwan. A brief hunt for a description of the situation in Taiwan led me to this[1]: "Fast forward to the present day, and the energy battle lines have not much shifted, with most pro-nuclear advocates also representing the Kuomintang (KMT), the party of Chiang Kai-shek and whose candidate drew just 39% of the vote in the 2020 presidential race. Meanwhile, the DPP, which has grown to become dominant, remains heavily anti-nuclear. Over time, the distinctions on nuclear have become less about anti- or pro-authoritarianism; rather, the DPP is widely seen as the young, pro-environment party, while the KMT is seen as pro-business (and, paradoxically given its origins, too cozy with China). This leaves very little political space to advocate for nuclear energy on the premises of eco-modernist environmentalism." Ok. That's gets me there. The pressure is coming from environmentalists -- imbued with the unassailable virtue -- so any discussion of the matter carefully conceals the prevailing parties and positions and names go unnamed, by both journalists and the participants in this thread. Exactly what I suspected. [1] https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-18-fall-2022/taiwans-nuclear-option https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-18-fall-2022/taiwans-...