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Six Reasons Your Web Startup Will Fail (But Don’t Let Them Stop You).

6 points by nickb 18y ago

ivankirigin 18y ago
Three I don't understand: - You’ll get frustrated - The emotional rollercoaster will beat you - You’ll get excited about something else That's just crazy. I'd only ever stop because I need money. Even the most mundane startup should live in an idea space that takes years to fully explore.
- tptacek 18y ago
  Really? You can't see how you'd get so frustrated you'd go back to steady work, or so freaked out you'd go back to steady work?
  - ivankirigin 18y ago
    Regular work is also frustrating if I'm not making something real. My point isn't that these factors don't matter. It's that money would stop me far sooner. If I'm making money from the enterprise, I won't quit out of frustration. That's what doesn't make sense to me.
    - lunaru 18y ago
      Let me paint a picture for you: You've been slaving away for 6 months on a site you believe will change the world (because everyone believes their shit will change the world). You're finally ready to launch - you painstakingly paid attention to every little detail to make sure your site is perfect/viral/fills a need/etc. You're finally ready to take on all those users. And on day one, your traffic is crap (or, if your selling a product, you maybe make 1 sale if you're lucky). Ok, not bad you tell yourself. Things will pick up. 3 months later, your traffic is flat (or, if your selling a product, you've make 1% of the number of sales your business plan said you would). You don't think you'd freak out just a little bit? You don't think you'd have just a little bit of self-doubt in your site/product/idea to make you want to stop? I know Tipjoy is probably pretty successful, so it's hard to visualize, but trust me, it happens.
      - tdavis 18y ago
        (because everyone believes their shit will change the world) I've never done anything that I felt would change the world. I just want to create something that makes finding tickets easier and more enjoyable. Somebody else can change the world.
        ivankirigin 18y ago
        Tiny improvements do change things.
    - tptacek 18y ago
      I'm pretty well married to software and enterprise security at this point, and if a week goes by where some loony unrelated idea doesn't force me to reconsider my field, I worry that I'm losing my inspiration. I totally buy the idea that temptation and grass-is-greener thinking is a major risk for a new project.
      - ivankirigin 18y ago
        But failure is (close to) a self fulfilling prophecy for the next venture. If you leave a project early to start a new one, you need to think about the likelihood you'll see the new one to completion. Making the choice to leave a project makes it more likely you will in the future. That alone makes the grass not so greener. It works both ways too. Committing to stay makes the expected value of your current venture higher. I certainly have day dreams of building giant robot armies. But I would think about it in these terms before acting. Also, my statement was somewhat personal, as I can't support a venture on my own for long, and you can sustain a startup on venture if the space is just dead. So before I'd leave to go to the greener isles, I'd be forced to leave for lack of money.
- ojbyrne 18y ago
  I seriously underestimated the "emotional rollercoaster" in my last endeavor. If I learned anything of use for future projects, that would be it.
- karjaluoto 18y ago
  I think it largely has to do with time. It was easier to not get "turned around" by this sort of thing when we started. It was back in 2000 and I was 26, with no kids. Plus, we lived in an inexpensive city. I gave up a good job, but that was all. I'm now 35 have a second child on the way, and don't spend nearly as much time with my family as I'd like. My partner and I have been working on our businesses for 9 years. That's almost a decade of consistent 70+ hour work weeks and 4:50 am wake-up calls. I have peers who take holidays with their kids, have two weeks off at Christmas, and own houses. I love being an entrepreneur work, and have no intention of changing anything. That being said, I must note that I’m sometimes envious of those who have more time to spend with their kids. My dad's a marathoner. He often remarks that the first few kilometers seem easy, but that there are some really hard bits after that. With time, doubt can become more powerful, and you have to work harder to keep it under control, no matter how focused you think you are. I suppose the thing that I'm finding is that the longer you're in the game, the easier/harder it seems to get. Some things are certainly better, and you learn a lot, but the cost of your decisions sometimes seems different too.
  - ivankirigin 18y ago
    I have a 2 year old and spend lots of time with him. I don't think you need to work long hours to succeed. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't succeeded yet :)
vaksel 18y ago
- But it won’t be because of the competition Pretty sure competition can be the reason for all the others. Don't have an audience? Your competitor has a better product. Running out of cash? Your competitor is hogging up all the audience, preventing you from making money. Getting frustrated? Your competitor stops you from being successful, which causes frustration. Going through emotional rollercoaster? Your competitor keeping kicking you down every time you start succeeding. Getting excited about something else? Once again, blame the competitor, who is stopping you from being excited about your current project

6 points by nickb 18y ago

Three I don't understand: - You’ll get frustrated - The emotional rollercoaster will beat you - You’ll get excited about something else That's just crazy. I'd only ever stop because I need money. Even the most mundane startup should live in an idea space that takes years to fully explore.

tptacek 18y ago
Really? You can't see how you'd get so frustrated you'd go back to steady work, or so freaked out you'd go back to steady work?
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  Regular work is also frustrating if I'm not making something real. My point isn't that these factors don't matter. It's that money would stop me far sooner. If I'm making money from the enterprise, I won't quit out of frustration. That's what doesn't make sense to me.
  - lunaru 18y ago
    Let me paint a picture for you: You've been slaving away for 6 months on a site you believe will change the world (because everyone believes their shit will change the world). You're finally ready to launch - you painstakingly paid attention to every little detail to make sure your site is perfect/viral/fills a need/etc. You're finally ready to take on all those users. And on day one, your traffic is crap (or, if your selling a product, you maybe make 1 sale if you're lucky). Ok, not bad you tell yourself. Things will pick up. 3 months later, your traffic is flat (or, if your selling a product, you've make 1% of the number of sales your business plan said you would). You don't think you'd freak out just a little bit? You don't think you'd have just a little bit of self-doubt in your site/product/idea to make you want to stop? I know Tipjoy is probably pretty successful, so it's hard to visualize, but trust me, it happens.
    - tdavis 18y ago
      (because everyone believes their shit will change the world) I've never done anything that I felt would change the world. I just want to create something that makes finding tickets easier and more enjoyable. Somebody else can change the world.
      - ivankirigin 18y ago
        Tiny improvements do change things.
  - tptacek 18y ago
    I'm pretty well married to software and enterprise security at this point, and if a week goes by where some loony unrelated idea doesn't force me to reconsider my field, I worry that I'm losing my inspiration. I totally buy the idea that temptation and grass-is-greener thinking is a major risk for a new project.
    - ivankirigin 18y ago
      But failure is (close to) a self fulfilling prophecy for the next venture. If you leave a project early to start a new one, you need to think about the likelihood you'll see the new one to completion. Making the choice to leave a project makes it more likely you will in the future. That alone makes the grass not so greener. It works both ways too. Committing to stay makes the expected value of your current venture higher. I certainly have day dreams of building giant robot armies. But I would think about it in these terms before acting. Also, my statement was somewhat personal, as I can't support a venture on my own for long, and you can sustain a startup on venture if the space is just dead. So before I'd leave to go to the greener isles, I'd be forced to leave for lack of money.
ojbyrne 18y ago
I seriously underestimated the "emotional rollercoaster" in my last endeavor. If I learned anything of use for future projects, that would be it.
karjaluoto 18y ago
I think it largely has to do with time. It was easier to not get "turned around" by this sort of thing when we started. It was back in 2000 and I was 26, with no kids. Plus, we lived in an inexpensive city. I gave up a good job, but that was all. I'm now 35 have a second child on the way, and don't spend nearly as much time with my family as I'd like. My partner and I have been working on our businesses for 9 years. That's almost a decade of consistent 70+ hour work weeks and 4:50 am wake-up calls. I have peers who take holidays with their kids, have two weeks off at Christmas, and own houses. I love being an entrepreneur work, and have no intention of changing anything. That being said, I must note that I’m sometimes envious of those who have more time to spend with their kids. My dad's a marathoner. He often remarks that the first few kilometers seem easy, but that there are some really hard bits after that. With time, doubt can become more powerful, and you have to work harder to keep it under control, no matter how focused you think you are. I suppose the thing that I'm finding is that the longer you're in the game, the easier/harder it seems to get. Some things are certainly better, and you learn a lot, but the cost of your decisions sometimes seems different too.
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  I have a 2 year old and spend lots of time with him. I don't think you need to work long hours to succeed. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't succeeded yet :)

vaksel 18y ago

- But it won’t be because of the competition Pretty sure competition can be the reason for all the others. Don't have an audience? Your competitor has a better product. Running out of cash? Your competitor is hogging up all the audience, preventing you from making money. Getting frustrated? Your competitor stops you from being successful, which causes frustration. Going through emotional rollercoaster? Your competitor keeping kicking you down every time you start succeeding. Getting excited about something else? Once again, blame the competitor, who is stopping you from being excited about your current project