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His recent statement that AGI may "only be a few thousand days away" is clearly an attempt to find a less quotable way of extending estimates while barely reduc
by QuantumGood 2y ago
His recent statement that AGI may "only be a few thousand days away" is clearly an attempt to find a less quotable way of extending estimates while barely reducing hype. History generally shows that estimates of "more than five years away" are meaningless.
- renegade-otter 2y ago4000 days is just a few thousand days, but it's [checks notes] over 10 years away.
- QuantumGood 2y agoHe knows as well as anyone about the 5 year hueristic (length too long to be meaningful), so he's trying to say "over 5 years", but still hold onto the sense of "meaningful estimate". My sense about Sam is that he trusts his PR instinct to be usefully manipulative enough that he doesn't think he has to plan it carefully in order for his statements to be maximally opaquely manipulative. (He speaks cleverly and manipulatively without a lot of effort.)
- CurrentB 2y ago"a few thousand days away" feels like such a duplicitous way to phrase something when "a few years" would be more natural to everyone on the planet. It just seems intentionally manipulative and not even trying to hide it. I've never been an anti-ceo type person but something about Altman sketches me out