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I'm genuinely curious. How can you be sure natural immunity cured Covid and not the vaccination? The vaccinations were correlated with steep declines in deaths

I'm genuinely curious. How can you be sure natural immunity cured Covid and not the vaccination? The vaccinations were correlated with steep declines in deaths and severe illness, isn't that good enough to motivate the vaccinations? Or is your point that the vaccine just gave a temporary respite that ultimately saved few lives relative to the cost?

fsckboy 2y ago
countries around the world, rich and poor, pursued different public health responses, some because of choices, some had no choices. But people around the world are not getting serious covid any more, it's just not something anybody even thinks about more than say the flu. That's the attenuation of the virus and natural immunity (and you might as well lump attenutation of the virus with natural immunity because they occur on the same timescale in the same interactions), which was predictable and was predicted. The UK initially followed that idea as a strategy, and Sweden followed it, it was accepted science. The people who died with covid didn't necessarily die of covid, but public health officials followed policies of lumping them together, and govts incented them to do it: "more money for covid". Old and infirm people, the morbidly obese, respiratory illnesses, etc. suffered the worst, as they do from the flu. Young people were hardly affected, though young people seem to have suffered more from the vaccine side effects and the socialization developmental deficit. The conferred immunity from catching covid protects you from reinfection far longer than the so-called vaccines, because these mRNA vaccines don't work as traditional vaccines do, that's why (along with the profit motive) we were all told to start getting boosters essentially right away. When an event like this causes excess deaths, it is followed by a period with a death deficit, simply because many of people "who were going to die soon anyway" died early, and they aren't around to die later, it's accepted science. That has to have happened with covid because they told us those people were dying, but try to get your hands on the statistics. I'm not saying people didn't get sick from covid or that it wasn't serious, But the coverups and stonewalling stop us from getting to the truth about what happened. but it is not because of vaccinations that we don't worry about covid today, and the vaccinations we got had more side effects (in no small part because they were not tested). I knew I would get downvoted for this because there is a political class that is, in HN terms, not comfortable with people "being curious" about it, they'd rather censor. But since GP engaged in gratuitous soapboxing and propagandizing I thought I'd spend some karma to speak up.
- desertrider12 2y ago
  When do you expect the death deficit to show up in mortality data? So far it looks like most (but not all) countries had an increase and then returned to the previous trendline: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year. For the world's total deaths per year, it definitely looks like the area under the curve increased due to covid.
  - geysersam 2y ago
    Wow I haven't seen that graph before. It's very striking. It certainly shows Covid was not "just the flu"
    - fsckboy 2y ago
      yeah, but that's not a significant point. covid "not having been the flu" is a different statement than covid is just the flu now. the Spanish flu (1919 or whenever that was) was not "just the flu" either, but it burned bright and then died out in a very short time. the question is not whether covid-19 happened, it did. the question is whether our various responses did anything or much at all to help, and whether it was productive to turn it into an us/them political issue and suppress speech and criticism to maintain the facade of being right. qui bono?
  - fsckboy 2y ago
    >When do you expect the death deficit to show up in mortality data? right away. I'm not an epidemiologist, but it's simple logic. A certain number of people of every age die every year. infants, toddlers, tweens, adolescents, middle aged people, old people, in each group a certain %age of people die every year of "all cause mortality". More old people die than young people (we're talking about rates here, % chance of dying) so, if there is a period where a whole bunch extra old people who die one year, that whole bunch extra old people are not around the very next year to die, because they're already dead. If the numbers don't add up, somebody is hiding data. the numbers absolutely should make sense. so, one explanation for what you are saying is that extra old people didn't die, it was the same number of old people; who died must have been young people, because those "missing deaths" will not show up in the "normal" death statistics for a long time. But that's not what we were told happened, so again, something is not right with the data.
water9 2y ago
Because it used to be called the flu, and the rise of Covid is correlated to the decline in flu related deaths. And suddenly as Covid started to decline flu related to increased. The mortality rate, however, did not change.
immibis 2y ago
I can be sure the vaccination didn't cure COVID because COVID was not cured - it is still here.
- geysersam 2y ago
  But it's still "cured" in the sense that fewer people die from it today compared to 2020, right? Intensive care units are not under the same pressure as they were during the pandemic years. It's a much less severe illness today than it was before, and many people attribute that change to the vaccinations.
  - immibis 2y ago
    That's probably the evolution to less deadly variants. We are lucky that happened, because we humans sure as shit weren't going to improve things ourselves.
    - geysersam 2y ago
      I still don't understand why you think we can't improve things ourselves. Do you believe every vaccine is a hoax, or only the Covid vaccine?
      - immibis 2y ago
        I said we humans aren't improving things for ourselves. What fraction of people do you see wearing a mask?
        geysersam 2y ago
        Seems to me we improved things by developing a vaccine so we don't have to wear masks

fsckboy 2y ago

countries around the world, rich and poor, pursued different public health responses, some because of choices, some had no choices. But people around the world are not getting serious covid any more, it's just not something anybody even thinks about more than say the flu. That's the attenuation of the virus and natural immunity (and you might as well lump attenutation of the virus with natural immunity because they occur on the same timescale in the same interactions), which was predictable and was predicted. The UK initially followed that idea as a strategy, and Sweden followed it, it was accepted science. The people who died with covid didn't necessarily die of covid, but public health officials followed policies of lumping them together, and govts incented them to do it: "more money for covid". Old and infirm people, the morbidly obese, respiratory illnesses, etc. suffered the worst, as they do from the flu. Young people were hardly affected, though young people seem to have suffered more from the vaccine side effects and the socialization developmental deficit. The conferred immunity from catching covid protects you from reinfection far longer than the so-called vaccines, because these mRNA vaccines don't work as traditional vaccines do, that's why (along with the profit motive) we were all told to start getting boosters essentially right away. When an event like this causes excess deaths, it is followed by a period with a death deficit, simply because many of people "who were going to die soon anyway" died early, and they aren't around to die later, it's accepted science. That has to have happened with covid because they told us those people were dying, but try to get your hands on the statistics. I'm not saying people didn't get sick from covid or that it wasn't serious, But the coverups and stonewalling stop us from getting to the truth about what happened. but it is not because of vaccinations that we don't worry about covid today, and the vaccinations we got had more side effects (in no small part because they were not tested). I knew I would get downvoted for this because there is a political class that is, in HN terms, not comfortable with people "being curious" about it, they'd rather censor. But since GP engaged in gratuitous soapboxing and propagandizing I thought I'd spend some karma to speak up.

desertrider12 2y ago
When do you expect the death deficit to show up in mortality data? So far it looks like most (but not all) countries had an increase and then returned to the previous trendline: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year. For the world's total deaths per year, it definitely looks like the area under the curve increased due to covid.
- geysersam 2y ago
  Wow I haven't seen that graph before. It's very striking. It certainly shows Covid was not "just the flu"
  - fsckboy 2y ago
    yeah, but that's not a significant point. covid "not having been the flu" is a different statement than covid is just the flu now. the Spanish flu (1919 or whenever that was) was not "just the flu" either, but it burned bright and then died out in a very short time. the question is not whether covid-19 happened, it did. the question is whether our various responses did anything or much at all to help, and whether it was productive to turn it into an us/them political issue and suppress speech and criticism to maintain the facade of being right. qui bono?
- fsckboy 2y ago
  >When do you expect the death deficit to show up in mortality data? right away. I'm not an epidemiologist, but it's simple logic. A certain number of people of every age die every year. infants, toddlers, tweens, adolescents, middle aged people, old people, in each group a certain %age of people die every year of "all cause mortality". More old people die than young people (we're talking about rates here, % chance of dying) so, if there is a period where a whole bunch extra old people who die one year, that whole bunch extra old people are not around the very next year to die, because they're already dead. If the numbers don't add up, somebody is hiding data. the numbers absolutely should make sense. so, one explanation for what you are saying is that extra old people didn't die, it was the same number of old people; who died must have been young people, because those "missing deaths" will not show up in the "normal" death statistics for a long time. But that's not what we were told happened, so again, something is not right with the data.

water9 2y ago

Because it used to be called the flu, and the rise of Covid is correlated to the decline in flu related deaths. And suddenly as Covid started to decline flu related to increased. The mortality rate, however, did not change.

immibis 2y ago

I can be sure the vaccination didn't cure COVID because COVID was not cured - it is still here.

geysersam 2y ago
But it's still "cured" in the sense that fewer people die from it today compared to 2020, right? Intensive care units are not under the same pressure as they were during the pandemic years. It's a much less severe illness today than it was before, and many people attribute that change to the vaccinations.
- immibis 2y ago
  That's probably the evolution to less deadly variants. We are lucky that happened, because we humans sure as shit weren't going to improve things ourselves.
  - geysersam 2y ago
    I still don't understand why you think we can't improve things ourselves. Do you believe every vaccine is a hoax, or only the Covid vaccine?
    - immibis 2y ago
      I said we humans aren't improving things for ourselves. What fraction of people do you see wearing a mask?
      - geysersam 2y ago
        Seems to me we improved things by developing a vaccine so we don't have to wear masks