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Self-driving being affordable enough for people to own a self-driving car is going to rely on either massive price reductions on LiDAR sensors (an order of magn

Self-driving being affordable enough for people to own a self-driving car is going to rely on either massive price reductions on LiDAR sensors (an order of magnitude or 2) or a Tesla-style approach without LiDAR working out. I worked in the space 5ish years ago, and the LiDAR sensors were monstrously expensive. They were the most expensive component we put in the car; if I'm remembering right, a single LiDAR sensor cost more than the car itself and there were half a dozen or so of them on the car. I want to say it was ballpark $500k to build out one of the cars, with the majority of that being LiDAR sensors followed by the servers in the car. Comma doesn't appear terribly close to cracking that based on their features. It's certainly a neat project, but I wouldn't put them much closer to cracking self-driving than someone just starting out today.

ra7 2y ago
Your numbers are way off. Waymo reported 5 years ago their Jaguars cost between $120k-$150k. That was after reducing their LiDAR cost by 90% from $75,000 to ~$7500. Their newly announced 6th gen sensors are even cheaper. LiDAR sensors are no longer expensive. We are seeing automakers including sub $1000 LiDARs. Granted they only offer L2 ADAS, but the rapid price cratering means it's only a matter of time for consumer-owned self driving cars.
- everforward 2y ago
  That's likely still too expensive; sub-$1,000 would probably work. The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500 (at cost) LiDAR sensors in them. That's $37.5k, almost exactly $10k short of the average new car sale price. To be clear, I'm talking about the point where normal people get new cars that have self-driving. It's affordable for wealthy people now, and was available to the super wealthy before that. I think the whole package is going to have to get somewhere in the $5k-$10k range before it's "normal" to have a self-driving car and be able to afford the maintenance. Even those super cheap LiDARs may be over $10k installed by the time you add the other sensors, compute, labor, etc. I have no idea what the lifetime of a LiDAR sensor is, so maintenance is a concern too. I think we'll get there, but it'll be a while after robotaxis become a thing. The news seems to think LiDAR sensors will settle around $200, which would definitely be affordable.
  - sangnoir 2y ago
    > The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500[...] This price from 5 years ago. How confident are you the unit price is still $7,500?
  - ra7 2y ago
    > The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500 (at cost) LiDAR sensors in them. Only the "dome" LiDAR at the top costs $7500. The smaller perimeter LiDARs are much cheaper.
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FireBeyond 2y ago
> They were the most expensive component we put in the car; if I'm remembering right, a single LiDAR sensor cost more than the car itself and there were half a dozen or so of them on the car. Some of that was Tesla/Elon propaganda when he was talking about being camera-only.

ra7 2y ago

Your numbers are way off. Waymo reported 5 years ago their Jaguars cost between $120k-$150k. That was after reducing their LiDAR cost by 90% from $75,000 to ~$7500. Their newly announced 6th gen sensors are even cheaper. LiDAR sensors are no longer expensive. We are seeing automakers including sub $1000 LiDARs. Granted they only offer L2 ADAS, but the rapid price cratering means it's only a matter of time for consumer-owned self driving cars.

everforward 2y ago
That's likely still too expensive; sub-$1,000 would probably work. The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500 (at cost) LiDAR sensors in them. That's $37.5k, almost exactly $10k short of the average new car sale price. To be clear, I'm talking about the point where normal people get new cars that have self-driving. It's affordable for wealthy people now, and was available to the super wealthy before that. I think the whole package is going to have to get somewhere in the $5k-$10k range before it's "normal" to have a self-driving car and be able to afford the maintenance. Even those super cheap LiDARs may be over $10k installed by the time you add the other sensors, compute, labor, etc. I have no idea what the lifetime of a LiDAR sensor is, so maintenance is a concern too. I think we'll get there, but it'll be a while after robotaxis become a thing. The news seems to think LiDAR sensors will settle around $200, which would definitely be affordable.
- sangnoir 2y ago
  > The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500[...] This price from 5 years ago. How confident are you the unit price is still $7,500?
- ra7 2y ago
  > The currently deployed Waymos have 5 $7,500 (at cost) LiDAR sensors in them. Only the "dome" LiDAR at the top costs $7500. The smaller perimeter LiDARs are much cheaper.

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FireBeyond 2y ago

> They were the most expensive component we put in the car; if I'm remembering right, a single LiDAR sensor cost more than the car itself and there were half a dozen or so of them on the car. Some of that was Tesla/Elon propaganda when he was talking about being camera-only.