4 ms·

The intent is to eventually make this available to own https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s

dageshi 2y ago
I'll be honest, I think they're just saying this so as not to spook anyone. But really I think they plan to build a massive, super convenient robot taxi service across the country and by the time their self driving tech is "ready" for sale that service will be completely ubiquitous.
- Hasu 2y ago
  Does it matter if you "own" your car if it is part of the Waymo fleet, getting regular updates and communicating with the Waymo network like any other robotaxi in the fleet? You could even opt into having it give people rides while you're working or sleeping. And then Waymo can have you pay for the maintenance, insurance, and cleaning. It's like having Uber drivers who don't have to drive!
  - dageshi 2y ago
    I think the key issue is that "owning" a car comes with a lot of expectations on behalf of existing customers. People are going to say that if they own it they should be able to mod it as they please, is that actually practical with a self driving car? What if they mod it in some way that makes it dangerous? Who's liable? There's a whole host of issues like this and most of them go away completely if you can't buy a self driving car but you can rent it per ride. Plus, if they do run it as a taxi service I think they can iterate everything from hardware, software and even infrastructure that supports it much faster than if they're selling it. I think google will be content to run a taxi service and let others sell self driving cars if and when they catch up because honestly it's a better business than outright selling cars.
- conductr 2y ago
  There is still some value in having a dedicated/always available option like car owners are used to. I live in a car centric city and maybe drive somewhere on average of 8 times a day (it's probably 4 on weekdays and maybe 20 on weekends). Uber is always near but still usually takes a minimum of 8-10 minutes and probably an averages ~12-15 minutes in my experience before I am entering the vehicle after summoning it. You can do the math and see that I would spend hours a day waiting in current world. If every vehicle was a Waymo then sure they'd always have one on my block at the ready, in theory. But in reality, a business will eventually seek to maximize efficiency and this will lead to a sucky UX. People also use vehicles as cargo carriages, not simply human transport devices. I know I don't always immediately unload my vehicle when I transport things, sometimes it gets stored there. Sometimes the load time and the unload time don't even make sense to do back to back. Sometimes I load something knowing I will unload it next week. Some things I just carry around with me on the off chance I might need them while out and about. Anyway, there's a lot of nuance to this type of change and why owning a car might still make sense for a lot of people.
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    You get in and out of your car 20 times a day on Saturdays? What hell is that?
    - conductr 2y ago
      Probably. I’m guessing. But it equates to 10 destinations. 3-4 are kid activities sports/birthdays/play dates (we only have 1 kid but he’s a busy guy!) 2 weekly dog grooming appointment (doodle!) have to drop her off then pick her up later, so it’s counts as 2 2 we eat out twice on Saturday and once Sunday Rest are other social, family visits, or hobby activities along with a plethora of random errands; groceries, home center, and a long tail of specialty stores that are individually irregular but always a few every weekend (pool supplies, makeup for my wife, post office/UPS, etc.) We shop online so mostly avoid malls and department stores unless it’s more of a boutique thing or something we want to see before buying. We don’t do food delivery or groceries unless it’s just curbside thing which is another trip. I hate the online/app shopping experience for things like groceries. Sometimes I just drive half a mile to get a Big Gulp fountain drink or an ice cream cone with the kid. I could walk or bike, but it’s car centric and 100F outside. It’s also a huge range and varies a lot by season. We certainly have some weekends we barely leave the house.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  I doubt it. The US is too spread out and large to have a centralized robo taxi system work for everyone. We will need individual vehicles.
lucianbr 2y ago
They may say that, but OpenAI also said they're not for profit. They say the darndest things. It seems to make much more sense to have a fleet owned and operated by a corporation. I actually doubt that any company that achieves proper self-driving will sell vehicles. Renting makes much more money, and corporations like money. Do you see Google selling their search engine as software that you can deploy on-premise? Do you see Amazon selling the internet store software? Microsoft was selling Windows and Office, and what do we see? They are trying to move as many customers as they can to the rent model. Logitech mentioned subscription for a mouse. Nobody will sell self-driving cars, if they can make them.
- enragedcacti 2y ago
  There are going to be a ton of really powerful network effects with large scale robotaxi networks. Rideshare network effects are already pretty strong and the startup costs are much lower than a company having to build and maintain hundreds of thousands or millions of vehicles. The first team with commercially viable wide scale self driving might not jump straight to consumer sale, but the second one will, and if not them the third. On top of that, anyone who wants to scale quickly will have to either be an automaker or play ball with automakers who will have little interest in putting all their autonomy eggs in someone else's basket. Even if an automaker does want to go all-in they will have to contend with dealers who are an extremely powerful political force and who would have a very diminished role in a rental only future. I think its much more likely that we see premium cars for purchase with L2 and advanced safety features at no additional charge and a yearly subscription model for L3/L4 like we see with hands-free and L3 tech from Ford, GM, and Mercedes right now. Even so Ford now offers a one-time purchase option for Blue Cruise so maybe consumers are going to push back on that model as well.
  - jauntywundrkind 2y ago
    What's scary so how networks externalize the costs while controlling the profit. Ideally the internet could be host to actual marketplaces, versus the up-in-the-cloud data-keepd that dictate to the down-below dwellers.
- 2y ago

dageshi 2y ago

I'll be honest, I think they're just saying this so as not to spook anyone. But really I think they plan to build a massive, super convenient robot taxi service across the country and by the time their self driving tech is "ready" for sale that service will be completely ubiquitous.

Hasu 2y ago
Does it matter if you "own" your car if it is part of the Waymo fleet, getting regular updates and communicating with the Waymo network like any other robotaxi in the fleet? You could even opt into having it give people rides while you're working or sleeping. And then Waymo can have you pay for the maintenance, insurance, and cleaning. It's like having Uber drivers who don't have to drive!
- dageshi 2y ago
  I think the key issue is that "owning" a car comes with a lot of expectations on behalf of existing customers. People are going to say that if they own it they should be able to mod it as they please, is that actually practical with a self driving car? What if they mod it in some way that makes it dangerous? Who's liable? There's a whole host of issues like this and most of them go away completely if you can't buy a self driving car but you can rent it per ride. Plus, if they do run it as a taxi service I think they can iterate everything from hardware, software and even infrastructure that supports it much faster than if they're selling it. I think google will be content to run a taxi service and let others sell self driving cars if and when they catch up because honestly it's a better business than outright selling cars.
conductr 2y ago
There is still some value in having a dedicated/always available option like car owners are used to. I live in a car centric city and maybe drive somewhere on average of 8 times a day (it's probably 4 on weekdays and maybe 20 on weekends). Uber is always near but still usually takes a minimum of 8-10 minutes and probably an averages ~12-15 minutes in my experience before I am entering the vehicle after summoning it. You can do the math and see that I would spend hours a day waiting in current world. If every vehicle was a Waymo then sure they'd always have one on my block at the ready, in theory. But in reality, a business will eventually seek to maximize efficiency and this will lead to a sucky UX. People also use vehicles as cargo carriages, not simply human transport devices. I know I don't always immediately unload my vehicle when I transport things, sometimes it gets stored there. Sometimes the load time and the unload time don't even make sense to do back to back. Sometimes I load something knowing I will unload it next week. Some things I just carry around with me on the off chance I might need them while out and about. Anyway, there's a lot of nuance to this type of change and why owning a car might still make sense for a lot of people.
- jeffbee 2y ago
  You get in and out of your car 20 times a day on Saturdays? What hell is that?
  - conductr 2y ago
    Probably. I’m guessing. But it equates to 10 destinations. 3-4 are kid activities sports/birthdays/play dates (we only have 1 kid but he’s a busy guy!) 2 weekly dog grooming appointment (doodle!) have to drop her off then pick her up later, so it’s counts as 2 2 we eat out twice on Saturday and once Sunday Rest are other social, family visits, or hobby activities along with a plethora of random errands; groceries, home center, and a long tail of specialty stores that are individually irregular but always a few every weekend (pool supplies, makeup for my wife, post office/UPS, etc.) We shop online so mostly avoid malls and department stores unless it’s more of a boutique thing or something we want to see before buying. We don’t do food delivery or groceries unless it’s just curbside thing which is another trip. I hate the online/app shopping experience for things like groceries. Sometimes I just drive half a mile to get a Big Gulp fountain drink or an ice cream cone with the kid. I could walk or bike, but it’s car centric and 100F outside. It’s also a huge range and varies a lot by season. We certainly have some weekends we barely leave the house.
dyauspitr 2y ago
I doubt it. The US is too spread out and large to have a centralized robo taxi system work for everyone. We will need individual vehicles.

lucianbr 2y ago

They may say that, but OpenAI also said they're not for profit. They say the darndest things. It seems to make much more sense to have a fleet owned and operated by a corporation. I actually doubt that any company that achieves proper self-driving will sell vehicles. Renting makes much more money, and corporations like money. Do you see Google selling their search engine as software that you can deploy on-premise? Do you see Amazon selling the internet store software? Microsoft was selling Windows and Office, and what do we see? They are trying to move as many customers as they can to the rent model. Logitech mentioned subscription for a mouse. Nobody will sell self-driving cars, if they can make them.

enragedcacti 2y ago
There are going to be a ton of really powerful network effects with large scale robotaxi networks. Rideshare network effects are already pretty strong and the startup costs are much lower than a company having to build and maintain hundreds of thousands or millions of vehicles. The first team with commercially viable wide scale self driving might not jump straight to consumer sale, but the second one will, and if not them the third. On top of that, anyone who wants to scale quickly will have to either be an automaker or play ball with automakers who will have little interest in putting all their autonomy eggs in someone else's basket. Even if an automaker does want to go all-in they will have to contend with dealers who are an extremely powerful political force and who would have a very diminished role in a rental only future. I think its much more likely that we see premium cars for purchase with L2 and advanced safety features at no additional charge and a yearly subscription model for L3/L4 like we see with hands-free and L3 tech from Ford, GM, and Mercedes right now. Even so Ford now offers a one-time purchase option for Blue Cruise so maybe consumers are going to push back on that model as well.
- jauntywundrkind 2y ago
  What's scary so how networks externalize the costs while controlling the profit. Ideally the internet could be host to actual marketplaces, versus the up-in-the-cloud data-keepd that dictate to the down-below dwellers.
2y ago