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Every time I head anti-electrification arguments around EVs, heat pumps, etc. it's usually a complaint about grid capacity. I always shake my head, because buil

Every time I head anti-electrification arguments around EVs, heat pumps, etc. it's usually a complaint about grid capacity. I always shake my head, because building more power lines is relatively easy on the scale of climate tech we need to kick all carbon emissions. Let's brainstorm how to decarbonize fertilizer, or concrete. That being said I am really glad to see more grid buildup! Especially as more renewables hit the grid. While locally intermittent, on the scale of the entire country they're fairly reliable and predictable.

colechristensen 2y ago
Indeed, it is an annoying argument that boils down to "What will we do!? Current supply doesn't meet future demand!" >That being said I am really glad to see more grid buildup! Especially as more renewables hit the grid. While locally intermittent, on the scale of the entire country they're fairly reliable and predictable. Here's what's coming that makes people uncomfortable and they don't expect or understand: Oversupply. Seasonally, during good weather, during certain times of day, there's just going to be more electricity produced by solar/wind than anybody needs. You don't need to store it or use every bit of it, the grid is going to say no and because they're just solar panels, they are perfectly fine. Solar electricity is so cheap that it just doesn't matter. What customers will end up paying for is capacity instead of usage. Maybe there will be instantaneous pricing that will drop to zero-ish intermittently and consumers and industry will find ways of profiting from that. But a whole lot of "problems" people complain about with solar are very much reduced if you just have "too many" solar panels. And they're cheap so who cares? Like what would California do with way too much solar power? Boil water in the cheapest possible infrastructure for desalination, an enormous still. Very energy inefficient, but who cares if you just have the amps to spare? There are a lot of industrial processes where energy efficiency is a problem and so simple processes are replaced by more efficient complex ones... but if you have free energy building out that simple infrastructure to only run when energy is cheap suddenly makes a lot more sense.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  I’d think direct thermal solar would be cheaper for boiling water. Feed the steam to electric generators; the condensate is then your desalinated water.
  - colechristensen 2y ago
    You are missing the point. I’m talking about sinks for surplus electricity, and doing it cheaply with dead simple distillation setups. You’re talking about generating more electricity when it is needed least.
- jujube3 2y ago
  The "annoying" thing that the naysayers are pointing out is that we are not building enough power generation to support universally switching to electric vehicles. Unfortunately this "annoyance" happens to be true. Also, California struggles to get new desalination plants through environmental approval. And most industrial processes need continuous power, not just power whenever the weather looks good.
  - doublepg23 2y ago
    Speaking to people in the industry I get a vibe that there’s permits and regulations that are severely bottlenecking new green energy deployments https://finance-commerce.com/2024/03/report-inefficient-permitting-delays-clean-energy-projects/ https://finance-commerce.com/2024/03/report-inefficient-perm...
  - colechristensen 2y ago
    Eh. Solar installs are growing faster than electric car purchases. (roughly 30% YoY vs 20%) People just make up statistics in their head supporting their position. Go look for the statistics for vehicle purchases and PV installs. PV installs are outpacing anyone's previous estimation by a significant margin.
    - jujube3 2y ago
      I have solar panels myself. But let's be honest about what the technology can and cannot do. Solar only makes energy while the sun is shining. Most people want to charge their electric cars at night, unless their employer has a charging station ready for them to use at work. (Many employers have a small number of charging stations for this purpose, but none of them that I'm aware of have enough charging stations for everyone.)
      - doctorhandshake 2y ago
        Batteries also are on the learning curve. https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
- doublepg23 2y ago
  Isn’t something like Bitcoin mining a good candidate for an oversupply of energy?
  - dylan604 2y ago
    Did you forget /s at the end of that?
  - colechristensen 2y ago
    Not particularly, the mining hardware depreciates fast, essentially being quite expensive to leave idle waiting for low energy prices, and the whole thing is kind of a gamble.
onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> Let's brainstorm how to decarbonize fertilize Haber-Bosch process with green hydrogen...
akira2501 2y ago
> because building more power lines is relatively easy on the scale of climate tech we need to kick all carbon emissions. Then why have the rates changed so much recently? More importantly if EVs are going to be the thing then home solar should be the way it get the majority of it's power. Why even build the lines? Isn't that just a subsidy? > Let's brainstorm how to decarbonize fertilizer, or concrete. I don't think you can. I think you should worry more about how concrete and fertilizer get _distributed_. This is essentially the same dynamic as the home solar problem above. > on the scale of the entire country they're fairly reliable and predictable. That's due to the way the grid itself is structure not how any one power source performs. No source of power is particularly reliable and unexpected maintenance intervals always occur. Point here being, if you try to switch a grid that's based on a mix of sources, over to a grid that isn't, you're probably going to end up with a surprising result or two during that misguided process.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Even if you have rooftop solar, you still need a grid capable of supplying 100% the power because there are cloudy days and long sequences of cloudy days
  - akira2501 2y ago
    Yes but EVs have batteries and people don't drive them to depletion every single day. I should have been more clear, I didn't mean the whole house, I meant the just the EVs specifically, for now. It would completely alleviate their impact on the grid as a consumer power source.
    - dangrossman 2y ago
      The 800,000 American homes that added solar to their roofs last year cover 100% of the electric used by every EV that's ever been sold in the US. They cover the electric usage by the EVs purchased last year by multiples. At this rate, you can do nothing and residential solar will already add much more capacity to the grid than EVs are taking from it.
eldaisfish 2y ago
the grid capacity that people refer to is distribution grid capacity. The wires running to your home have finite capacity and almost always, not enough for all people to use EVs and heat pumps.

colechristensen 2y ago

Indeed, it is an annoying argument that boils down to "What will we do!? Current supply doesn't meet future demand!" >That being said I am really glad to see more grid buildup! Especially as more renewables hit the grid. While locally intermittent, on the scale of the entire country they're fairly reliable and predictable. Here's what's coming that makes people uncomfortable and they don't expect or understand: Oversupply. Seasonally, during good weather, during certain times of day, there's just going to be more electricity produced by solar/wind than anybody needs. You don't need to store it or use every bit of it, the grid is going to say no and because they're just solar panels, they are perfectly fine. Solar electricity is so cheap that it just doesn't matter. What customers will end up paying for is capacity instead of usage. Maybe there will be instantaneous pricing that will drop to zero-ish intermittently and consumers and industry will find ways of profiting from that. But a whole lot of "problems" people complain about with solar are very much reduced if you just have "too many" solar panels. And they're cheap so who cares? Like what would California do with way too much solar power? Boil water in the cheapest possible infrastructure for desalination, an enormous still. Very energy inefficient, but who cares if you just have the amps to spare? There are a lot of industrial processes where energy efficiency is a problem and so simple processes are replaced by more efficient complex ones... but if you have free energy building out that simple infrastructure to only run when energy is cheap suddenly makes a lot more sense.

SoftTalker 2y ago
I’d think direct thermal solar would be cheaper for boiling water. Feed the steam to electric generators; the condensate is then your desalinated water.
- colechristensen 2y ago
  You are missing the point. I’m talking about sinks for surplus electricity, and doing it cheaply with dead simple distillation setups. You’re talking about generating more electricity when it is needed least.
jujube3 2y ago
The "annoying" thing that the naysayers are pointing out is that we are not building enough power generation to support universally switching to electric vehicles. Unfortunately this "annoyance" happens to be true. Also, California struggles to get new desalination plants through environmental approval. And most industrial processes need continuous power, not just power whenever the weather looks good.
- doublepg23 2y ago
  Speaking to people in the industry I get a vibe that there’s permits and regulations that are severely bottlenecking new green energy deployments https://finance-commerce.com/2024/03/report-inefficient-permitting-delays-clean-energy-projects/ https://finance-commerce.com/2024/03/report-inefficient-perm...
- colechristensen 2y ago
  Eh. Solar installs are growing faster than electric car purchases. (roughly 30% YoY vs 20%) People just make up statistics in their head supporting their position. Go look for the statistics for vehicle purchases and PV installs. PV installs are outpacing anyone's previous estimation by a significant margin.
  - jujube3 2y ago
    I have solar panels myself. But let's be honest about what the technology can and cannot do. Solar only makes energy while the sun is shining. Most people want to charge their electric cars at night, unless their employer has a charging station ready for them to use at work. (Many employers have a small number of charging stations for this purpose, but none of them that I'm aware of have enough charging stations for everyone.)
    - doctorhandshake 2y ago
      Batteries also are on the learning curve. https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
doublepg23 2y ago
Isn’t something like Bitcoin mining a good candidate for an oversupply of energy?
- dylan604 2y ago
  Did you forget /s at the end of that?
- colechristensen 2y ago
  Not particularly, the mining hardware depreciates fast, essentially being quite expensive to leave idle waiting for low energy prices, and the whole thing is kind of a gamble.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago

> Let's brainstorm how to decarbonize fertilize Haber-Bosch process with green hydrogen...

akira2501 2y ago

> because building more power lines is relatively easy on the scale of climate tech we need to kick all carbon emissions. Then why have the rates changed so much recently? More importantly if EVs are going to be the thing then home solar should be the way it get the majority of it's power. Why even build the lines? Isn't that just a subsidy? > Let's brainstorm how to decarbonize fertilizer, or concrete. I don't think you can. I think you should worry more about how concrete and fertilizer get _distributed_. This is essentially the same dynamic as the home solar problem above. > on the scale of the entire country they're fairly reliable and predictable. That's due to the way the grid itself is structure not how any one power source performs. No source of power is particularly reliable and unexpected maintenance intervals always occur. Point here being, if you try to switch a grid that's based on a mix of sources, over to a grid that isn't, you're probably going to end up with a surprising result or two during that misguided process.

s1artibartfast 2y ago
Even if you have rooftop solar, you still need a grid capable of supplying 100% the power because there are cloudy days and long sequences of cloudy days
- akira2501 2y ago
  Yes but EVs have batteries and people don't drive them to depletion every single day. I should have been more clear, I didn't mean the whole house, I meant the just the EVs specifically, for now. It would completely alleviate their impact on the grid as a consumer power source.
  - dangrossman 2y ago
    The 800,000 American homes that added solar to their roofs last year cover 100% of the electric used by every EV that's ever been sold in the US. They cover the electric usage by the EVs purchased last year by multiples. At this rate, you can do nothing and residential solar will already add much more capacity to the grid than EVs are taking from it.

eldaisfish 2y ago

the grid capacity that people refer to is distribution grid capacity. The wires running to your home have finite capacity and almost always, not enough for all people to use EVs and heat pumps.