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What do you mean dumping? Google IPO was a huge windfall for retail investors and VC, right. If Stripe can’t exit successfully, why not pay VC back at % rate t

What do you mean dumping? Google IPO was a huge windfall for retail investors and VC, right. If Stripe can’t exit successfully, why not pay VC back at % rate they can afford, and then run the business off of the $100M profit?

churchill 2y ago
Google, Facebook, and Apple are extreme outliers. This list covers tech stocks that IPO'd in the last bull run. Check what the declines look like. https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines Out of 17 YC companies that have gone public, 3-4 have been delisted, 7 have lost >80% of their value, another 7 has lost 10% to 50% of their value. Only Reddit and Instacart have gained 47% and 31% respectively. Sounds a lot like bagholding to me. Here: https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report Regarding Stripe, if investors own just 50% of the company (highly probable, given how much they've raised), it'd take 350 years to pay them off. Payments is a high-volume, low-margins business. In fact, even if Stripe 10x'd their revenues, it'd still be 35 years before they bought out all their investors. if you think I'm being unfair, look at the numbers Paypal and Adyen are doing and assess their valuation and you'll realize Stripe is extremely overvalued. Adyen is trading at 60x profits; PayPal is trading at 2.7x revenues and 19x profits.
- KingMachiavelli 2y ago
  Comparing a companies current valuation to it's all-time or 52-week high isn't really useful. NVDIA is down ~14% from it's ATH but 25x it's initial market cap; it's certainly returned value to it's investors. What matters more is change relative to it's market cap at IPO. And yes this is significantly worse for newer companies. There is a clear trend showing the 2010-2022 tech IPO market pushed valuations pre-IPO to insane levels such that post-IPO growth was limited or even negative meaning retail investors never had an opportunity to hold equity.
  - churchill 2y ago
    Okay, ignore the section about ATHs. How about YC alumni company performance post-IPO?

churchill 2y ago

Google, Facebook, and Apple are extreme outliers. This list covers tech stocks that IPO'd in the last bull run. Check what the declines look like. https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines Out of 17 YC companies that have gone public, 3-4 have been delisted, 7 have lost >80% of their value, another 7 has lost 10% to 50% of their value. Only Reddit and Instacart have gained 47% and 31% respectively. Sounds a lot like bagholding to me. Here: https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report Regarding Stripe, if investors own just 50% of the company (highly probable, given how much they've raised), it'd take 350 years to pay them off. Payments is a high-volume, low-margins business. In fact, even if Stripe 10x'd their revenues, it'd still be 35 years before they bought out all their investors. if you think I'm being unfair, look at the numbers Paypal and Adyen are doing and assess their valuation and you'll realize Stripe is extremely overvalued. Adyen is trading at 60x profits; PayPal is trading at 2.7x revenues and 19x profits.

KingMachiavelli 2y ago
Comparing a companies current valuation to it's all-time or 52-week high isn't really useful. NVDIA is down ~14% from it's ATH but 25x it's initial market cap; it's certainly returned value to it's investors. What matters more is change relative to it's market cap at IPO. And yes this is significantly worse for newer companies. There is a clear trend showing the 2010-2022 tech IPO market pushed valuations pre-IPO to insane levels such that post-IPO growth was limited or even negative meaning retail investors never had an opportunity to hold equity.
- churchill 2y ago
  Okay, ignore the section about ATHs. How about YC alumni company performance post-IPO?