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I think we just have near stagflation in Europe and a bad economy + inflation in the U.S. If certain wars are stopped, energy prices go to normal and the excess

by klranM 2y ago

I think we just have near stagflation in Europe and a bad economy + inflation in the U.S. If certain wars are stopped, energy prices go to normal and the excess COVID money supply is gone, things will be as before. But the U.S. population has to want it rather than voting emotionally again.

tivert 2y ago
> ...things will be as before. > But the U.S. population has to want it rather than voting emotionally again. Why would the US population want: >> The whole VC/startup grift needs the greater fool to be either a big company with money to burn to do an acquisition, or the retail investor to be the greater fool via IPO. ? IMHO those greater fool-based moneymaking schemes can go die in a fire.
- surgical_fire 2y ago
  > Why would the US population want: >>> The whole VC/startup grift needs the greater fool to be either a big company with money to burn to do an acquisition, or the retail investor to be the greater fool via IPO. I was the one that originally wrote that. Bear with me for a second. I avoid working for startups, but the VC/startup grift indirectly benefits me, as they soak a bunch of software developers from the market at large, increasing demand and salaries across the board. I call it a grift out of sincerity, but I was never hypocritical to pretend I didn't benefit from it. As for the general population is hard to say. The layoffs that affected tech reached way beyond cushy software engineer jobs. We may recognize that building castles on sand is a bad idea. Perhaps our economies, and the rules that create incentives (perverse or otherwise) should be different than they are. Fact is, we have a lot of fucking castles built on sand right now. If they crumble, a lot of people will be left to wander among the rubble. I do hold a deep despise for the billionaire class that was the ultimate beneficiary of this whole "building castles on sand" activity. It's not them who will lose the most when everything crumbles though.
  - tivert 2y ago
    > I avoid working for startups, but the VC/startup grift indirectly benefits me, as they soak a bunch of software developers from the market at large, increasing demand and salaries across the board. I call it a grift out of sincerity, but I was never hypocritical to pretend I didn't benefit from it. I get that, we as software engineers have indirectly benefited from the scam. > As for the general population is hard to say. The layoffs that affected tech reached way beyond cushy software engineer jobs. I don't think it's hard to say. If the general population was made understood the full situation, they'd tell us software engineers to get lost along with the billionaire VCs, because the general population are the ultimate greater fools that pay for it all (either directly through the stock market, or indirectly through the businesses who make so much through monopoly off of them that they can easily afford to be greater fools). We software engineers have had a pretty privileged time while a lot of people have been struggling (viz. the whole "learn to code" bandwagon from a few years ago).
    - surgical_fire 2y ago
      To be frank, the whole "learn to code" fiasco was pushed not by software developers. My impression was that it was pushed by parties interested in flooding the field with newcomers to push wages down. Nonetheless, I don't think you are wrong. I'll just point out that the monopolies you refer to, and the billionaires that ultimately benefit from it exist due to policies and laws that directly benefit them so they achieve that very position. I don't deny that we lived though a privileged time - I was perhaps lucky that I had aptitude and interest in coding right at the time when the profession was on the rise. While some may be deeply concerned about AI taking jobs (which I think is complete bullshit), my main concern is a shift in economic conditions that will severely reduce demand for developers due to less money moving around the sector. I believe the the ones that will suffer the most are the newcomers. Either recent graduates that are coming to the market at the worst possible time, or those that switched professions very recently only to find the promised land had withered before they arrived. Oh well. Time will tell.
      - tivert 2y ago
wbl 2y ago
What bad economy? Labor market is a bit soft but still strong, GDP has been gangbusters for quarter after quarter.
Wytwwww 2y ago
> stagflation in Europe Where? I wouldn't be surprised if deflation becomes a real concern in the near future. Eurozone is already at 1.8% YoY
electrondood 2y ago
Inflation is at 2.5%. Unemployment has bottomed out again at 4%. The stock market has been making all time highs. The fed is lowering rates.
- AndrewKemendo 2y ago
  This kind of appeal to economic authority is why we’re in this mess to begin with None of these measures says anything about human health or anything other than the fact of dollars exchanging hands Egyptian, roman, French etc… slave colonies probably had the best economic productivity on the planet. Who cares?

by klranM 2y ago

tivert 2y ago

> ...things will be as before. > But the U.S. population has to want it rather than voting emotionally again. Why would the US population want: >> The whole VC/startup grift needs the greater fool to be either a big company with money to burn to do an acquisition, or the retail investor to be the greater fool via IPO. ? IMHO those greater fool-based moneymaking schemes can go die in a fire.

surgical_fire 2y ago
> Why would the US population want: >>> The whole VC/startup grift needs the greater fool to be either a big company with money to burn to do an acquisition, or the retail investor to be the greater fool via IPO. I was the one that originally wrote that. Bear with me for a second. I avoid working for startups, but the VC/startup grift indirectly benefits me, as they soak a bunch of software developers from the market at large, increasing demand and salaries across the board. I call it a grift out of sincerity, but I was never hypocritical to pretend I didn't benefit from it. As for the general population is hard to say. The layoffs that affected tech reached way beyond cushy software engineer jobs. We may recognize that building castles on sand is a bad idea. Perhaps our economies, and the rules that create incentives (perverse or otherwise) should be different than they are. Fact is, we have a lot of fucking castles built on sand right now. If they crumble, a lot of people will be left to wander among the rubble. I do hold a deep despise for the billionaire class that was the ultimate beneficiary of this whole "building castles on sand" activity. It's not them who will lose the most when everything crumbles though.
- tivert 2y ago
  > I avoid working for startups, but the VC/startup grift indirectly benefits me, as they soak a bunch of software developers from the market at large, increasing demand and salaries across the board. I call it a grift out of sincerity, but I was never hypocritical to pretend I didn't benefit from it. I get that, we as software engineers have indirectly benefited from the scam. > As for the general population is hard to say. The layoffs that affected tech reached way beyond cushy software engineer jobs. I don't think it's hard to say. If the general population was made understood the full situation, they'd tell us software engineers to get lost along with the billionaire VCs, because the general population are the ultimate greater fools that pay for it all (either directly through the stock market, or indirectly through the businesses who make so much through monopoly off of them that they can easily afford to be greater fools). We software engineers have had a pretty privileged time while a lot of people have been struggling (viz. the whole "learn to code" bandwagon from a few years ago).
  - surgical_fire 2y ago
    To be frank, the whole "learn to code" fiasco was pushed not by software developers. My impression was that it was pushed by parties interested in flooding the field with newcomers to push wages down. Nonetheless, I don't think you are wrong. I'll just point out that the monopolies you refer to, and the billionaires that ultimately benefit from it exist due to policies and laws that directly benefit them so they achieve that very position. I don't deny that we lived though a privileged time - I was perhaps lucky that I had aptitude and interest in coding right at the time when the profession was on the rise. While some may be deeply concerned about AI taking jobs (which I think is complete bullshit), my main concern is a shift in economic conditions that will severely reduce demand for developers due to less money moving around the sector. I believe the the ones that will suffer the most are the newcomers. Either recent graduates that are coming to the market at the worst possible time, or those that switched professions very recently only to find the promised land had withered before they arrived. Oh well. Time will tell.
    - tivert 2y ago

wbl 2y ago

What bad economy? Labor market is a bit soft but still strong, GDP has been gangbusters for quarter after quarter.

Wytwwww 2y ago

> stagflation in Europe Where? I wouldn't be surprised if deflation becomes a real concern in the near future. Eurozone is already at 1.8% YoY

electrondood 2y ago

Inflation is at 2.5%. Unemployment has bottomed out again at 4%. The stock market has been making all time highs. The fed is lowering rates.

AndrewKemendo 2y ago
This kind of appeal to economic authority is why we’re in this mess to begin with None of these measures says anything about human health or anything other than the fact of dollars exchanging hands Egyptian, roman, French etc… slave colonies probably had the best economic productivity on the planet. Who cares?