5 ms·

It is very fascinating to see a kind of modern day version of the tulip craze play out in real time. What kind of revenue must OpenAI stabilize at to defend suc

It is very fascinating to see a kind of modern day version of the tulip craze play out in real time. What kind of revenue must OpenAI stabilize at to defend such a valuation? It’s not like they have any first mover advantage or other kinds of moats vs Anthropic & co.

hu3 2y ago
Agreed. OpenAI is currently the best in some major criterias, but not all. Gemini has much larger context window, for example. And behemoths like Google/Meta/Apple can remain irrational with their AI spending longer than OpenAI can remain solvent. Unless Microsoft steps in, which they already did, kind of.
user90131313 2y ago
Even their core team is no longer there. So investors are not the smartest for pushing it that high.
- karunamurti 2y ago
  Some are betting on selling on the next round, not for long term investments.
TrackerFF 2y ago
Eh, the tech is legit. But I guess the problem is to figure out how to make money in the long term. I can't really think of any similar products where something costs ridiculous amounts of money to develop, and then the product has a effective shelf-life of what...6-12 months? Before every other competitor has caught up. I guess the big problem with AI/ML of the LLM type is that the data and compute is the gold, or fuel if you will. How does one commercialize a product in the long term, when each iteration becomes magnitudes more expensive than the previous, and the previous products become almost worthless within 12 months. Oh yeah, keep growing your number of subscribers. But that also has a natural limit. Maybe at some point, these AI models will be so integrated and omnipresent in everyone's daily like that some kind of oligopoly or monopoly arises, and they can leverage that.
- famouswaffles 2y ago
  >I can't really think of any similar products where something costs ridiculous amounts of money to develop, and then the product has a effective shelf-life of what...6-12 months? This is most Hollywood productions in a nutshell
  - throwaway314155 2y ago
    I was going to say AAA video games.
n_ary 2y ago
Probably they have more things in store than they offer publicly?
FloorEgg 2y ago
$10bn annual profit within a couple years. Doesn't seem too outrageous
- paxys 2y ago
  Says who? They are currently estimated to lose $5B annually on $3.7B revenue.
  - RIMR 2y ago
    Imagine for a moment that you are following the hype instead of the facts. Now you understand why investors dump their money on these kinds of things.
h_tbob 2y ago
They are selling "AGI". That is, the dream they will get there first, I think?

hu3 2y ago

Agreed. OpenAI is currently the best in some major criterias, but not all. Gemini has much larger context window, for example. And behemoths like Google/Meta/Apple can remain irrational with their AI spending longer than OpenAI can remain solvent. Unless Microsoft steps in, which they already did, kind of.

user90131313 2y ago

Even their core team is no longer there. So investors are not the smartest for pushing it that high.

karunamurti 2y ago
Some are betting on selling on the next round, not for long term investments.

TrackerFF 2y ago

Eh, the tech is legit. But I guess the problem is to figure out how to make money in the long term. I can't really think of any similar products where something costs ridiculous amounts of money to develop, and then the product has a effective shelf-life of what...6-12 months? Before every other competitor has caught up. I guess the big problem with AI/ML of the LLM type is that the data and compute is the gold, or fuel if you will. How does one commercialize a product in the long term, when each iteration becomes magnitudes more expensive than the previous, and the previous products become almost worthless within 12 months. Oh yeah, keep growing your number of subscribers. But that also has a natural limit. Maybe at some point, these AI models will be so integrated and omnipresent in everyone's daily like that some kind of oligopoly or monopoly arises, and they can leverage that.

famouswaffles 2y ago
>I can't really think of any similar products where something costs ridiculous amounts of money to develop, and then the product has a effective shelf-life of what...6-12 months? This is most Hollywood productions in a nutshell
- throwaway314155 2y ago
  I was going to say AAA video games.

n_ary 2y ago

Probably they have more things in store than they offer publicly?

FloorEgg 2y ago

$10bn annual profit within a couple years. Doesn't seem too outrageous

paxys 2y ago
Says who? They are currently estimated to lose $5B annually on $3.7B revenue.
- RIMR 2y ago
  Imagine for a moment that you are following the hype instead of the facts. Now you understand why investors dump their money on these kinds of things.

h_tbob 2y ago

They are selling "AGI". That is, the dream they will get there first, I think?