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>You'll need it! If they can IPO, they will easily hit a $1.5T valuation. All Altman would have to do is follow what Elon did with Tesla. Lots of massive promi

>You'll need it! If they can IPO, they will easily hit a $1.5T valuation. All Altman would have to do is follow what Elon did with Tesla. Lots of massive promises marinated in trending hype that tickles the hearts of dumb money. No need to deliver, just keep promising. He is already doing it.

mcast 2y ago
The difference is Tesla had a moat with the electric car market, there were no affordable and practical EVs 10 years ago. OpenAI is surrounded by competition and Meta is constantly releasing Llama weights to break up any closed source monopolies.
- Workaccount2 2y ago
  Tesla is still overvalued today with a moat that is more a puddle than anything. Elon realized that cars weren't gonna carry the hype anymore, so now it's all robotaxi, which will almost certainly be more vaporware.
  - mattmaroon 2y ago
    I think he’s even past robo taxi and onto AI and robots that build robots that build robotaxis. I wish I were joking.
- smt88 2y ago
  The Nissan Leaf was far more affordable than a Tesla 10 years ago and very practical for anyone living in a city.
  - changing1999 2y ago
    While it was an affordable vehicle, saying that it was practical is an overstatement. Charging networks were abysmal and actually still are for non-Tesla compatible vehicles. If you had experience using EVgo and similar small networks you probably wouldn't sound as confident.
    - saagarjha 2y ago
      People back then didn't use charging networks; they charged at home (or work).
      - changing1999 2y ago
        Since I am technically "people", I can assure you that there indeed existed non-Tesla charging stations in 2014. I was living in a medium size city in an apartment. Since your original comment is specifically about cities, I would like to point out that cities are often associated with apartment buildings, lack of individual garages, etc. Even today saying that EV owners in cities mostly rely on charging at home or at work does not seem valid.
        saagarjha 2y ago
        That wasn't my comment but I will say that lots of people have houses with garages in cities. Those that don't often will choose to not purchase an electric vehicle.
  - ClassyJacket 2y ago
    Eh it was pretty limited. The Leaf (then) couldn't go from my house, to the airport in my city (Melbourne) and back on one charge. That always made it a dealbreaker for me. And that's going by Nissan's claimed range, not even real world. So that's on a 100% charge, when the car is brand new with no battery degradation, and under the ideal efficiency conditions that you never really get.
    - saagarjha 2y ago
      Surely your city is not 50 miles wide?
- aswanson 2y ago
  What's dogecoins valuation? Cardanos? Bitcoins? There is a nigh-infinite amount of capital ready to get entranced by a sexy story.
cs702 2y ago
Yeah, there's no upper limit to hype and exuberance. As Isaac Newton once said, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."[a] --- [a] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/74548-i-can-calculate-the-motion-of-heavenly-bodies-but-not https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/74548-i-can-calculate-the-m...
bryanlarsen 2y ago
If OpenAI hits $100B in revenue, $15B in profit with a 50% CAGR they will likely be worth even more than Tesla was at those numbers. Tesla has really dropped off on its 50% CAGR number so now it is worth half that.
- changing1999 2y ago
  It took around 20 years for Amazon to get to $15B profit, and over 10 years for Meta/FB. Both had very clear paths to profit: sales and ads. OpenAI did not yet demonstrate how they will be able to consistently monetize their models. And if you consider how quickly similar quality free models are released today, it's definitely raising questions.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    Yah, I need a "big if" interjection in my comment or something. I highly doubt they'll get there. But like Tesla & Meta, if they did get there they'd be a trillion dollar company.

mcast 2y ago

The difference is Tesla had a moat with the electric car market, there were no affordable and practical EVs 10 years ago. OpenAI is surrounded by competition and Meta is constantly releasing Llama weights to break up any closed source monopolies.

Workaccount2 2y ago
Tesla is still overvalued today with a moat that is more a puddle than anything. Elon realized that cars weren't gonna carry the hype anymore, so now it's all robotaxi, which will almost certainly be more vaporware.
- mattmaroon 2y ago
  I think he’s even past robo taxi and onto AI and robots that build robots that build robotaxis. I wish I were joking.
smt88 2y ago
The Nissan Leaf was far more affordable than a Tesla 10 years ago and very practical for anyone living in a city.
- changing1999 2y ago
  While it was an affordable vehicle, saying that it was practical is an overstatement. Charging networks were abysmal and actually still are for non-Tesla compatible vehicles. If you had experience using EVgo and similar small networks you probably wouldn't sound as confident.
  - saagarjha 2y ago
    People back then didn't use charging networks; they charged at home (or work).
    - changing1999 2y ago
      Since I am technically "people", I can assure you that there indeed existed non-Tesla charging stations in 2014. I was living in a medium size city in an apartment. Since your original comment is specifically about cities, I would like to point out that cities are often associated with apartment buildings, lack of individual garages, etc. Even today saying that EV owners in cities mostly rely on charging at home or at work does not seem valid.
      - saagarjha 2y ago
        That wasn't my comment but I will say that lots of people have houses with garages in cities. Those that don't often will choose to not purchase an electric vehicle.
- ClassyJacket 2y ago
  Eh it was pretty limited. The Leaf (then) couldn't go from my house, to the airport in my city (Melbourne) and back on one charge. That always made it a dealbreaker for me. And that's going by Nissan's claimed range, not even real world. So that's on a 100% charge, when the car is brand new with no battery degradation, and under the ideal efficiency conditions that you never really get.
  - saagarjha 2y ago
    Surely your city is not 50 miles wide?
aswanson 2y ago
What's dogecoins valuation? Cardanos? Bitcoins? There is a nigh-infinite amount of capital ready to get entranced by a sexy story.

cs702 2y ago

Yeah, there's no upper limit to hype and exuberance. As Isaac Newton once said, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."[a] --- [a] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/74548-i-can-calculate-the-motion-of-heavenly-bodies-but-not https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/74548-i-can-calculate-the-m...

bryanlarsen 2y ago

If OpenAI hits $100B in revenue, $15B in profit with a 50% CAGR they will likely be worth even more than Tesla was at those numbers. Tesla has really dropped off on its 50% CAGR number so now it is worth half that.

changing1999 2y ago
It took around 20 years for Amazon to get to $15B profit, and over 10 years for Meta/FB. Both had very clear paths to profit: sales and ads. OpenAI did not yet demonstrate how they will be able to consistently monetize their models. And if you consider how quickly similar quality free models are released today, it's definitely raising questions.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Yah, I need a "big if" interjection in my comment or something. I highly doubt they'll get there. But like Tesla & Meta, if they did get there they'd be a trillion dollar company.