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Most of these have been around for nearly a half decade, can’t they just remain private companies operating off their profits? What is the mechanism for VC inv

Most of these have been around for nearly a half decade, can’t they just remain private companies operating off their profits? What is the mechanism for VC investors exiting when it just goes private, what payoff will they accept?

churchill 2y ago
It's not possible: for most of these companies, their business model is built on burning VC, getting increasingly higher valuations, and then dumping on retail traders. For instance, Stripe is valued at >$70b. They processed $1 trillion in payments in 2023, brought in $12 billion in revenue, which is 1.2% of payment volume. $100 million in profits. Running as a modest private business just doesn't make sense when you've raised venture capital at 700x your annual profits. So, IPO it is.
- nytesky 2y ago
  What do you mean dumping? Google IPO was a huge windfall for retail investors and VC, right. If Stripe can’t exit successfully, why not pay VC back at % rate they can afford, and then run the business off of the $100M profit?
  - churchill 2y ago
    Google, Facebook, and Apple are extreme outliers. This list covers tech stocks that IPO'd in the last bull run. Check what the declines look like. https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines Out of 17 YC companies that have gone public, 3-4 have been delisted, 7 have lost >80% of their value, another 7 has lost 10% to 50% of their value. Only Reddit and Instacart have gained 47% and 31% respectively. Sounds a lot like bagholding to me. Here: https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report Regarding Stripe, if investors own just 50% of the company (highly probable, given how much they've raised), it'd take 350 years to pay them off. Payments is a high-volume, low-margins business. In fact, even if Stripe 10x'd their revenues, it'd still be 35 years before they bought out all their investors. if you think I'm being unfair, look at the numbers Paypal and Adyen are doing and assess their valuation and you'll realize Stripe is extremely overvalued. Adyen is trading at 60x profits; PayPal is trading at 2.7x revenues and 19x profits.
    - KingMachiavelli 2y ago
      Comparing a companies current valuation to it's all-time or 52-week high isn't really useful. NVDIA is down ~14% from it's ATH but 25x it's initial market cap; it's certainly returned value to it's investors. What matters more is change relative to it's market cap at IPO. And yes this is significantly worse for newer companies. There is a clear trend showing the 2010-2022 tech IPO market pushed valuations pre-IPO to insane levels such that post-IPO growth was limited or even negative meaning retail investors never had an opportunity to hold equity.
      - churchill 2y ago
        Okay, ignore the section about ATHs. How about YC alumni company performance post-IPO?
- fluoridation 2y ago
  They have a 0.8% efficiency? How are they running such a tight margin?
  - churchill 2y ago
    Adyen hires mainly in Europe where peak salaries can easily be 40% of American rates. They also have like 3,500 staff compared to Stripe's 8k (not sure whether it's before or after their recent layoffs). Personally, I assume they'll do some layoffs & cut spending to increase their margins, by, say, 4-5x, before they IPO.
- Ancalagon 2y ago
  holy moly I did not know it was only 100MM
Gigachad 2y ago
A lot of them have built up user bases which are difficult to monetize at all. Discord users are having a collective meltdown right now at the change to require a subscription for large file hosting. How are you meant to profit when you have a product that costs a lot to run, that has an expected price of $0.
- LilBytes 2y ago
  True enough but of the list, Canva have been profitable for quite some time. They've already monetised the market, though they're certainly the exception and not the rule.

churchill 2y ago

It's not possible: for most of these companies, their business model is built on burning VC, getting increasingly higher valuations, and then dumping on retail traders. For instance, Stripe is valued at >$70b. They processed $1 trillion in payments in 2023, brought in $12 billion in revenue, which is 1.2% of payment volume. $100 million in profits. Running as a modest private business just doesn't make sense when you've raised venture capital at 700x your annual profits. So, IPO it is.

nytesky 2y ago
What do you mean dumping? Google IPO was a huge windfall for retail investors and VC, right. If Stripe can’t exit successfully, why not pay VC back at % rate they can afford, and then run the business off of the $100M profit?
- churchill 2y ago
  Google, Facebook, and Apple are extreme outliers. This list covers tech stocks that IPO'd in the last bull run. Check what the declines look like. https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines https://www.trueup.io/tech-stock-declines Out of 17 YC companies that have gone public, 3-4 have been delisted, 7 have lost >80% of their value, another 7 has lost 10% to 50% of their value. Only Reddit and Instacart have gained 47% and 31% respectively. Sounds a lot like bagholding to me. Here: https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-yc-report Regarding Stripe, if investors own just 50% of the company (highly probable, given how much they've raised), it'd take 350 years to pay them off. Payments is a high-volume, low-margins business. In fact, even if Stripe 10x'd their revenues, it'd still be 35 years before they bought out all their investors. if you think I'm being unfair, look at the numbers Paypal and Adyen are doing and assess their valuation and you'll realize Stripe is extremely overvalued. Adyen is trading at 60x profits; PayPal is trading at 2.7x revenues and 19x profits.
  - KingMachiavelli 2y ago
    Comparing a companies current valuation to it's all-time or 52-week high isn't really useful. NVDIA is down ~14% from it's ATH but 25x it's initial market cap; it's certainly returned value to it's investors. What matters more is change relative to it's market cap at IPO. And yes this is significantly worse for newer companies. There is a clear trend showing the 2010-2022 tech IPO market pushed valuations pre-IPO to insane levels such that post-IPO growth was limited or even negative meaning retail investors never had an opportunity to hold equity.
    - churchill 2y ago
      Okay, ignore the section about ATHs. How about YC alumni company performance post-IPO?
fluoridation 2y ago
They have a 0.8% efficiency? How are they running such a tight margin?
- churchill 2y ago
  Adyen hires mainly in Europe where peak salaries can easily be 40% of American rates. They also have like 3,500 staff compared to Stripe's 8k (not sure whether it's before or after their recent layoffs). Personally, I assume they'll do some layoffs & cut spending to increase their margins, by, say, 4-5x, before they IPO.
Ancalagon 2y ago
holy moly I did not know it was only 100MM

Gigachad 2y ago

A lot of them have built up user bases which are difficult to monetize at all. Discord users are having a collective meltdown right now at the change to require a subscription for large file hosting. How are you meant to profit when you have a product that costs a lot to run, that has an expected price of $0.

LilBytes 2y ago
True enough but of the list, Canva have been profitable for quite some time. They've already monetised the market, though they're certainly the exception and not the rule.